Intersting situation with pocket 9's from a home game

[TLR]

The following hand is from my home game, so I ran the info from memory, I think it is pretty accurate

11 players started the tournament, 6 players remain, average stack is a bit less then 600, blinds are at 20/40

3 players getting paid
stacks:
UTG: 300
Hero (MP): 520
CO: 650
Button: Around 500
SB: 850
BB: 450

Hero has 99.
UTG pushes 300, UTG is not a particularly aggressive player, but he is the short stack, his likely range is any PP, A7+, KQ,KJ maybe QJ

Hero calls, Hero has an image of the most tight and conservative player at the table

CO pushes all in. CO is a very aggressive player but given Hero's call you have to assume he has a hand, likely range for CO is 99+, AK, he may also do it with 88 and AQ but those are borderline

Button and SB fold

BB calls all in. BB is a very good player, selectively aggressive, but very deliberate, with all this action in front of him he is unlikely to do this without a big hand - AA and KK are definitely a call, QQ is probably a call, he will probably lay down JJ and AK here

So as hero you are probably dominated.

If you fold you have 220 chips and will be the short stack on the table with the BB on you next hand

If you call the 220
main pot is now 1220
Side pot 1 between BB, CO and Hero is 450
Side pot 2 between CO and hero is 140

Do you call ?

Lets ignore for a second the misplay (in my opinion) by Hero who should have either folded or pushed after the UTG push

[baudib]

It looks like you have good enough odds to try to beat an overpair here and folding leaves you in terrible shape.

[taipan168]

I agree that you misplayed it by not folding or repushing after the UTG push.

As played, with the pot odds you're getting I can't see any way you can fold even if you know that they all have overpairs rather than overcards, you are 20% or 4:1 against to spike a 9 over the next 5 cards and you're getting way more than that in terms of pot odds

Using the ranges you provided:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 14.289% 13.74% 00.55% { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 40.467% 38.89% 01.58% { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 21.584% 20.50% 01.09% { 99+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 23.660% 22.58% 01.09% { 99+ }

[TLR]

Just for the record, I wasn't the Hero in this hand

I also think Hero should have called it, I think it is an intersting ICM excercise

You put 99+ for hand 3, actually it is exactly 99

[taipan168]

Sorry, you're right, I made an error with Pokerstove:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 15.065% 14.46% 00.60% { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 46.878% 45.89% 00.99% { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 23.155% 21.99% 01.17% { 99+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 14.901% 14.68% 00.22% { 99 }

[TLR]

There are many scenarios with the different side pots, I am going to focus on the main outcomes
Assuming hero folds and BB wins the main pot
Hero: 220
CO: 200
Button: 500
SB: 830
BB: 1520

player 1 equity: 0.094
player 1 calls and wins
Hero: 1810
CO: 130
Button: 500
SB: 830
equity: 0.394

I am ignoring the scenarios of hero winning the side pots but losing the main pot for the sake of discussion

0.094 = 0.394x
x = 23.8%

So hero has to be at least 23.8% to win, since he is 14.9% to win this is a fold

[Kijjo]

How does the possibility of cashing factor in (ICM)? I like getting out of the hand if we have the potential of making it to the bubble with a shot at cashing, but best case scenario would be CO wins and KO's both BB and UTG right? But then you've got 220 chips, with the Megastack right behind you. ick.
How often is there a happy ending to this story?
This is a great post to point out how HUGE a mistake calling this was. Early on in my SnG exploration I wouldn't have realized it, but mistakes like this give away so much of your potential for taking down a game.

[TLR]

How does the possibility of cashing factor in (ICM)? I like getting out of the hand if we have the potential of making it to the bubble with a shot at cashing, but best case scenario would be CO wins and KO's both BB and UTG right? But then you've got 220 chips, with the Megastack right behind you. ick.
How often is there a happy ending to this story?
This is a great post to point out how HUGE a mistake calling this was. Early on in my SnG exploration I wouldn't have realized it, but mistakes like this give away so much of your potential for taking down a game.

In order to get the complete result we have to run all possible scenarios with the different outcomes, run ICM on each and calculate the EV break even point based on the distributed weights, I may do it later if I have time

[Aplomado]

It looks like you have good enough odds to try to beat an overpair here and folding leaves you in terrible shape.

But Hero is almost certainly way, way behind, so although folding leaves you in terrible shape, calling leaves you in worse shape, IMO. $220 is better than $0.

Obviously an ugly scenario for Hero all around.

[TLR]

I would like to answer the following question using ICM
Had Hero known the exact hands of all players what is the correct move
UTG: KdJd
Hero: 9c9s
Co: TdTc
BB: KhKc

My current problem: If hero calls there are 8 possible outcomes, if hero folds there are 4 possible outcomes.
Does anyone know of a tool that can give me exact distribution between all those outcomes (obviously claculated differently if Hero calls and if Hero folds)

[taipan168]

I am ignoring the scenarios of hero winning the side pots but losing the main pot for the sake of discussion

I don't think you can in order to reach a correct decision. I am not aware of a tool to use to calculate this however, you are right that it gets very complicated

[mcatdog]

I don't think you can in order to reach a correct decision.

agreed

[TLR]

I am ignoring the scenarios of hero winning the side pots but losing the main pot for the sake of discussion

I don't think you can in order to reach a correct decision. I am not aware of a tool to use to calculate this however, you are right that it gets very complicated

My understanding is that in order to figure out the correct action you have to calculate the % of the prize pool of hero for all possible scenarios of calling, and calculate the weighted average according to the probability of each one of them, then you have to do the same for folding, and then you have to compare them to figure out what is the break even point.

What other alternative do you have to figure out the correct action using ICM ?

[taipan168]

My understanding is that in order to figure out the correct action you have to calculate the % of the prize pool of hero for all possible scenarios of calling, and calculate the weighted average according to the probability of each one of them, then you have to do the same for folding, and then you have to compare them to figure out what is the break even point.

I think the problem with this is that the analysis very complicated and is super sensitive to the ranges you use, so you go to a lot of effort to analyse every possible situation but the decision can change dramatically if you change the ranges even slightly. So you end up with a situation where the methodology is very precise but the assumptions used have a huge impact

What other alternative do you have to figure out the correct action using ICM ?

Shove over preflop

[TLR]

My understanding is that in order to figure out the correct action you have to calculate the % of the prize pool of hero for all possible scenarios of calling, and calculate the weighted average according to the probability of each one of them, then you have to do the same for folding, and then you have to compare them to figure out what is the break even point.

I think the problem with this is that the analysis very complicated and is super sensitive to the ranges you use, so you go to a lot of effort to analyse every possible situation but the decision can change dramatically if you change the ranges even slightly. So you end up with a situation where the methodology is very precise but the assumptions used have a huge impact

That is not really the problem I have

I would like to answer the following question using ICM
Had Hero known the exact hands of all players what is the correct move
UTG: KdJd
Hero: 9c9s
Co: TdTc
BB: KhKc

So assuming all cards are now face up what is the correct move for hero

My problem is that I do not know of any calculator that will give me the distribution of outcomes with all the main and side pots, for example what is the chance that UTG wins main pot, BB wins side pot 1 and Hero winning side pot 2