Easy push or easy fold?

[Lance]

I saw this spot on another forum. It was interesting for me.
Any thoughts ?

Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 4 players -

BB: t4025 M = 3.66
CO: t7730 M = 7.03
BTN: t393 M = 0.36
Hero (SB): t1352 M = 1.23

Pre Flop: (t1100) Hero is SB with AJo
2 folds, Hero?

[taipan168]

I ran this through SNG Wiz and it is an +EV shove provided that opp calls with 88% of hands or less, and even if he does call wider it is only slightly -EV. Opp should call with 100% because he's getting 3:1 odds but in many cases these guys will (incorrectly) fold the very worst hands so I shove it.

If the microstack was UTG I think there would be a stronger case for folding (SNG Wiz doesn't take this into account) but in this case I think we have to shove it. If the short stack doubles up over the next two hands his/her stack will be pretty much equal to ours.

[Raoni_Poker]

Even though the button is going to be blinded out soon, I'd shove here. AJ is a good hand and the BB would call with a very limited range (AA, KK, QQ, AK).

[OP]

Even though the button is going to be blinded out soon, I'd shove here. AJ is a good hand and the BB would call with a very limited range (AA, KK, QQ, AK).

I would like to play in that game

[baudib]

yeah I'd call with just about everything here in the BB unless SB was playing UBER nitty.

[Raoni_Poker]

yeah I'd call with just about everything here in the BB unless SB was playing UBER nitty.

I'm lost here...why would you call with anything? What about the gap concept? You're in second place here...probably two opponents will be eliminated soon...I dont get it.

[OP]

yeah I'd call with just about everything here in the BB unless SB was playing UBER nitty.

I'm lost here...why would you call with anything? What about the gap concept? You're in second place here...probably two opponents will be eliminated soon...I dont get it.

Hero only has about a minraise left.
BB is getting 2:1 on a call, so if he thinks he has 2 live cards he can call here as a 40/60 to pop the bubble. Most people who have any kind of sit n go strategy concept is calling about 90% of hands here.

[taipan168]

yeah I'd call with just about everything here in the BB unless SB was playing UBER nitty.

I'm lost here...why would you call with anything? What about the gap concept? You're in second place here...probably two opponents will be eliminated soon...I dont get it.

Because you're getting 3:1 on the call, and even 32o is getting the right price to call even against a relatively tight range:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 28.639% 28.14% 00.50% { 32o }
Hand 1: 71.361% 70.86% 00.50% { 22+, A2s+, K9s, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[Raoni_Poker]

I get it now...
The blind is about half the call, so its 3:1. However, i think you are assuming the button is shoving with a wide range of hands. The specific situation of the shove (the shortstack about to fall) requires a tighter range, doesn't it?

[Raoni_Poker]

Ok...youre right. I just ran the calculations in poker stove and it works even for a tigher range. Besides that, 3-2o was just a way to exemplify how EV+ it its to call the shove. In a random hand (with a tigher range for the button) we have about 33% equity (2:1 underdog).

[tertip]

a call should be ok.

[Outlaw]

These are the situations I hope for.. easy shove here.. we in fact WANT a call here. Never play for 3rd.. play for 1st.

[baudib]

I think the shove is correct but "playing for first, not for third" is an -EV mentality in SnGs.

[Raoni_Poker]

I think the shove is correct but "playing for first, not for third" is an -EV mentality in SnGs.

Is that correct (mathematically)? I mean, playing for first before the bubble can put you out of the money. But once you're already ITM isnt better to get more risks since the prize is considerably high?

I'm just beginning to play real money SGs (played 4, actually). I'm not playing that often because I'm trying to improve my limit cash game. In these 4 SGs, I ended in 3rd 3 times (two of them I was elimined trying to be first) and in 2nd once (which I was short and got lucky). Even though I have no complaints about this results, I am aware that if I ended in first once I would have a considerably higher ROI (since my sample is VERY limited).

However, you may have a point there. Playing for first can be risky, while playing for being in the final HU (a little more cautious and less pretensious) does not mean you're not going to fight for first when you get there. The HU is a different game regardless of chip differences. You can take chip lead with one or two successful moves. Besides that, finishing in second is better than in third.

[baudib]

Learning to play the bubble is the most important thing you can learn re: SnGs. Check some of the stickies in this forum.

[TLR]

I would push it.
The problem with folding it is that if the short stack doubles up you are the shorty with the BB coming on you.

[surviva316]

if this is a close call, i need to re-read the stickies on bubble play and go back to cash games for a while.

ICM: Hi surviva 316, i'm ICM. it is very important to understand me to win SnG's

surviva316: who?...what?

[Kijjo]

Shove
echo outlaw - play for first!

[taipan168]

These are the situations I hope for.. easy shove here.. we in fact WANT a call here.

Are you sure we really want a call here?

- If we fold we will have 1027 chips worth 18.9% of the prize pool
- If we shove, get called and win we will have 2804 chips worth 28% of the prize pool
- If we shove, get called and lose we will be out on the bubble.

Therefore, IF we get called, we need to be (18.9/28) = 68% to win against whatever opp is calling for opp to call to be +EV for us

equity win tie
Hand 0: 58.909% 56.34% 02.57% { AJo }
Hand 1: 41.091% 38.52% 02.57% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

This is a fairly tight range, even against a random hand it's still bad news if we get called:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 63.563% 62.54% 01.03% { AJo }
Hand 1: 36.437% 35.41% 01.03% { random }

Therefore, it is bad news for us to get called even if opp calls us with ATC.

The reason we shove this is the small chance that opp will (for whatever reason) incorrectly fold despite getting 3:1 pot odds and we take the pot down without a fight.

Never play for 3rd.. play for 1st.

Mantras like this are not helpful at all. The mantra you should be repeating to yourself is "Always make the play that is the most +EV". Sometimes this means playing for 1st (eg. often when you're ITM already) and sometimes it means playing for the money (eg. when you're 2nd stack on the bubble, there's a very short stack around and the big stack shoves into you).

[str32]

shove is probably correct for this one

[drmcboy]

Never play SNGs, since you have to play for 3rd.

fyp

[mcatdog]

I shove, I think the BB folds his really bad hands often enough for us to profit here.

Also, taipan, I looked at the hand in SNG Wiz from the BB's perspective and I'm pretty sure the BB [i]shouldn't[/b] be calling any two. You're getting a little worse than 3:1, the SB is likely to have a very strong hand when he shoves, and there are some really bad hands that are worse than 3:1 against very tight top 10% ranges. Not to mention, ICM should make the BB a little less likely to call us with these hands. Why is this such an easy call with ATC?

[taipan168]

I shove, I think the BB folds his really bad hands often enough for us to profit here.

I agree, in my first reply that's what I siaid, that

Also, taipan, I looked at the hand in SNG Wiz from the BB's perspective and I'm pretty sure the BB shouldn't be calling any two. You're getting a little worse than 3:1, the SB is likely to have a very strong hand when he shoves, and there are some really bad hands that are worse than 3:1 against very tight top 10% ranges. Not to mention, ICM should make the BB a little less likely to call us with these hands. Why is this such an easy call with ATC?

If you look at it from BB's perspective, it depends on what range he thinks the SB is shoving. Provided that he thinks that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands (33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+) then calling with 32o is +EV. Since there's no way I can see the SB not shoving any pocket pair, any ace or hands like KT/KJo, this means that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands and calling with ATC is +EV.

However, I agree with you that many players in BB's spot will fold their very worst hands often enough for it to be +EV for SB to shove, which is why I would shove in SB's position.

[rong]

I don't see your average player in the bb position calling anything less than J7, and I think many will fold that. So based on the above I think shoving is extremely +ev

[mcatdog]

If you look at it from BB's perspective, it depends on what range he thinks the SB is shoving. Provided that he thinks that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands (33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+) then calling with 32o is +EV. Since there's no way I can see the SB not shoving any pocket pair, any ace or hands like KT/KJo, this means that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands and calling with ATC is +EV.

This where I disagree, shoving A2 or 22 here would be absolutely horrible and I don't see any reason to assume that the SB would do it.

[baudib]

Many players in SB's position will shove any above-average hand imo.

[taipan168]

If you look at it from BB's perspective, it depends on what range he thinks the SB is shoving. Provided that he thinks that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands (33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+) then calling with 32o is +EV. Since there's no way I can see the SB not shoving any pocket pair, any ace or hands like KT/KJo, this means that SB is shoving at least 20% of hands and calling with ATC is +EV.

This where I disagree, shoving A2 or 22 here would be absolutely horrible and I don't see any reason to assume that the SB would do it.

You and I wouldn't, but without a solid read you can't assume that the average player wouldn't. The thing is, even if SB is shoving tighter than 20% it isn't a very -EV call for BB to make with 32o.

ok cool