BB with AK, facing bet preflop

[rong]

Titan, $20 + $2 10 man SnG, blinds 100/200

Everyone on this table can play and all have positive ROI's, villain has ROI approx 10%. Pretty tight and aggresive all round, nobody calling all ins without a top hand.

Button (1800)
SB (940)
BB Hero (2390)
UTG (2850)
UTG+1 (1190)
MP (1360)
CO-1 (1300)
CO (3170)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with K A
UTG raises to 600, 6 folds, Hero????

[GatorJH]

If villain is as tight as you say then this is close, but it is a fold. If his range is 44+,A9s+,ATo+ or wider then it is a call.

[rong]

I guess this is a simple ICM based decision, villains range is def tighter than that.

[Nakamura]

$20's aren't really my thing, but I would say UTG his range is probably JJ+, AK, maybe AQ at a stretch.

Even with the dead chips, and taking into account ICM, I don't think you are ahead enough to push. Fold (I think).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.508% 40.75% 10.76% 284670948 75172446.00 { JJ+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 48.492% 37.73% 10.76% 263604192 75172446.00 { AKo }

[Nakamura]

If villain is as tight as you say then this is close, but it is a fold. If his range is 44+,A9s+,ATo+ or wider then it is a call.

Gator, did you notice villain didn't push? He raised to 600

[Aplomado]

Yeah, with a table that tight and a 3xBB raise UTG, hard to imagine a whole lot of hands he has that you beat with AKo

[Taicho]

Just how tight is he? Have you seen him raise and then fold to a shove before (or conversely, have you seen him raise and then call a shove?)? Can we expect him to fold 5% of the time? 15%?

[baudib]

I don't buy it. If he's a good player he's capable of folding a better hand. You think he never raises AQ here?

[Aplomado]

I don't buy it. If he's a good player he's capable of folding a better hand. You think he never raises AQ here?

Of course. But that's about the only thing it could be that AK beats, don't you think?

[rong]

I figure maybe TT+ AQ+, don't see AJ, and I think 99 is really pushing it, but you never know.

However, was watching terminator 2 at the same time (I love that movie, just grabs my attention), hence the broad read of the table in general rather than a player specific read. But what I thought was important was that all of the players had very poitive ROI (just an unlucky table to sit at), and the general theme of play at this point was a raise preflop which either took the blinds or folded to push, or just open shoving.

[GatorJH]

If villain is as tight as you say then this is close, but it is a fold. If his range is 44+,A9s+,ATo+ or wider then it is a call.

Gator, did you notice villain didn't push? He raised to 600

I did, but then used SNGPT instead of SNGwiz. According to SNGWiz, If his raise range is 88+, Ajs+, AQ0+ but will only call a push with JJ+, AK+ then this is a push. If, however, he would call a push with his entire range then this is a fold.

If his raise range is TT+, AQ+ or tighter this is a fold.

[fulksy]

don't play 20's but at 11 and 6, most players, even decent players arn't folding 77,88,99 AJs UTG, i think he's raising wider than you think, and he only calls AQ JJ +,

[taipan168]

I'm about a 10% ROI player, and if I was in UTG's place with the same table read that you had, I would be raising 77+, AJ+ and calling a shove over with TT+, AK. Running this through SNG Wiz makes this a pretty solid push. Even if he folds only a tiny portion of his range this is a good shove over - and in UTG's shoes I'm definitely not calling with hands like 77 and AJ.

[baudib]

I don't buy it. If he's a good player he's capable of folding a better hand. You think he never raises AQ here?

Of course. But that's about the only thing it could be that AK beats, don't you think?

Hence the part about our fold equity. Anyway, if we're at a table full of sharks I think we should be looking for chances to shove AK here even if we KNOW he has a pair because we have enough fold equity to make it profitable and frankly, no offense to OP, but if we have little to no edge here we're not in very good shape even though we're currently in third place in chips.

[rong]

I'm about a 10% ROI player, and if I was in UTG's place with the same table read that you had, I would be raising 77+, AJ+ and calling a shove over with TT+, AK. Running this through SNG Wiz makes this a pretty solid push. Even if he folds only a tiny portion of his range this is a good shove over - and in UTG's shoes I'm definitely not calling with hands like 77 and AJ.

Interesting range information, I think I will adjust my expectations based on this for future situations.

As for the outcome, I shoved, villain called with AA.

What I was interested in finding out is whether or not the shove was correct. Which very much depends on villains range (obviously).
I was hoping I wasn't up against either AA or KK, and he'd fold due to our relative stack sizes. In fact it was the relative stack sizes that made me question the move, as if I had a smaller stack I don't think I would have had a choice, but in this case, I wondered whether I was better off folding and trying for a few more steels rather than attempting to double up here.

Thanks all for your advice & opinions.

[rong]

Hence the part about our fold equity. Anyway, if we're at a table full of sharks I think we should be looking for chances to shove AK here even if we KNOW he has a pair because we have enough fold equity to make it profitable and frankly, no offense to OP, but if we have little to no edge here we're not in very good shape even though we're currently in third place in chips.

None taken, little to no edge was exactly what I had. I like to think I was pretty much as good as the rest of the table, but I definitely wasn't better than the average, and I may have been a fair bit worse. Only just trying out these stakes, played two tables, one had 5 players with ROI>8% and one table had 10. Compared to the usual 2 to 3 with positive ROI at $10 games, this meant a considerably better standard of player on both tables compared to what I was used to. Still, I liked it and will be back for more!

[Aplomado]

I don't buy it. If he's a good player he's capable of folding a better hand. You think he never raises AQ here?

Of course. But that's about the only thing it could be that AK beats, don't you think?

Hence the part about our fold equity. Anyway, if we're at a table full of sharks I think we should be looking for chances to shove AK here even if we KNOW he has a pair because we have enough fold equity to make it profitable and frankly, no offense to OP, but if we have little to no edge here we're not in very good shape even though we're currently in third place in chips.

Thanks for the explanation. I've recently gotten back into playing so I came back to these boards precisely so I could better understand things like fold equity and such. I'm hoping to learn more from you all.

[baudib]

yeah keep in mind I probably hold some stupid record for shoving AK into AA.

[Poker Orifice]

I'd be shoving there on BB w AK.
UTG knows we know he's solid TAG and so I believe they would be folding out alot of their range when we push here. Just my opinion.
(I did bubble in two tourneys today on AA vs AK, lol)

[Trons]

I would also like to say that at a table of sharks where raises (especially in position raises) are given a lot of respect, sharks are going to pick up on this and start r/f wider. OP was just unlucky he had a hand this time.

I'm also not sure why the ROI of players is being used to range him opposed to table stats. If you said this guy was a 10%roi but was playing a 24/15 game, does this change your decision?

In the end, I still feel that the shove is the best and if he wakes up with AA or KK then so be it. That's poker, bust, open a new table.

[rong]

I'm also not sure why the ROI of players is being used to range him opposed to table stats. If you said this guy was a 10%roi but was playing a 24/15 game, does this change your decision?

Only have sharkscope HUD, and ROI gives a good idea of quality of play which, combined with general table aggression, can be used to help judge range.

[Poker Orifice]

I'm also not sure why the ROI of players is being used to range him opposed to table stats. If you said this guy was a 10%roi but was playing a 24/15 game, does this change your decision?

Only have sharkscope HUD, and ROI gives a good idea of quality of play which, combined with general table aggression, can be used to help judge range.

Agreed but I don't have Sharkscope either. Personally I use TopShark, free version and comes with alot of filtering options. I use it for MTT play also (ie. an overly aggressive player with an ROI-25%-, good chance they're full of shit.

[rong]

What's topshark? Is it a HUD? WHat stats does it show?

[rong]

hmmmmmm...just checked myself on there, it has my stats completely wrong. Missing approx 100 torneys in the last 90 days and has me at $96 total profit!!???? Think I'll stick to sharkscope.

[Nakamura]

hmmmmmm...just checked myself on there, it has my stats completely wrong. Missing approx 100 torneys in the last 90 days and has me at $96 total profit!!???? Think I'll stick to sharkscope.

It seems to be pretty bang on for my last 10 or so tourneys on Full Tilt. Total profit seems to be in the right ball park.

lol

[kyle-mac1989]

If i was getting raised with AK in this situation, I would ra-raise him all-in, more than likely he would fold but if not, its likely gonna be a coin flip.

[baudib]

Yeah, it's a coinflip except for the times you're ahead.