oh hello there flop 400NL

[Deanglow]

Villain is 12/9 and never seen him get out of line. He doubled up 5 handed when I 3bet the button from the SB and he 4bet from the BB with AA and won vs my QQ.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($561.80)
MP3 ($426)
CO ($419.10)
Button ($406.95)
SB ($578.50)
BB ($92.35)
Hero (UTG) ($400)
UTG+1 ($760)
MP1 ($400)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $16, UTG+1 calls $16, 2 folds, MP3 calls $16, 4 folds

Flop: ($54) 7, 6, K (3 players)
Hero bets $36, UTG+1 raises to $102, 1 fold, Hero

[ATOTHEC101]

well you are a 60/40 dog at best, likely just drawing to another club but I shove anyway cos fuck you I have aa with the nut flush draw.



edit: Also this censoring of f.uck sucks ass.

[ChrisBCritter]

Would he refrain from 3-betting KK to your UTG raise? Doubtful, so we're left with a made flush(QJs really doubtful though) or 77,66 as his most likely made-hand holdings. Other than that he has AK here a lot IMO, and I think we are just crushing his range over all, with re-draws. Get it in, and happily for the most part!

[Deanglow]

I think AK is one of the few hands he can't have. KK is most likely imo. Don't know if he folds 66-77 preflop

[pokerfan]

35% chance to win this pot against his sets. I doubt that he raised with AK without any clubs.

[ATOTHEC101]

agree he never has ak here.

[daven]

he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling

[CBAT]

he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling

Bingo.

Get it in.

[surviva316]

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800, and you have 11 outs over two streets, making that play BARELY not profitable before taking fold equity into account. i still don't know if this 12/9 "solid" players fold equity is even big enough to make up for this margin though. a call is also barely above the right pot odds, and would put you OOP in a tough spot so that option doesn't thrill me. i think a push is going to be very marginally +EV but is probably your best option

[surviva316]

can we put 76s in his range?

[pokerfan]

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800,

odds is definitely not this good. A shove would be risking $348 for a shot at $468.

[pokerfan]

Its not a 3 bet pot. so i like to call and reevaluate on the turn. A shove is a mistake if we can narrow his range down to sets.

[surviva316]

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800,

odds is definitely not this good. A shove would be risking $348 for a shot at $468.

i calculate using percentages--not odds.

[2ndline.4thstreet]

Its not a 3 bet pot. so i like to call and reevaluate on the turn. A shove is a mistake if we can narrow his range down to sets.

I agree. He's calling the shove and I don't really like a coin flip here.

[jessyj]

Ship it.

[wakeup]

why cnat he have AK?

[Fnord]

why cnat he have AK?

This

[Renton]

i think its probably a very close fold

if he can have a bluff frequency or AK at all then its a shove, but i doubt he can.

villain has set every time

[surviva316]

villain has set every time

maybe that's what he wants you to think! mwahahahahaha

[birdman417]

i realize i dont even come close to playing this level of poker nor do i even think i am anything but a fish to most FTR regulars, but could someone be a little more specific than fnord and jessyj why AK is not in villians range?

Birdman

[birdman417]

ok...

Daven wrote..
"he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling"

[Da GOAT]

i think its probably a very close fold

if he can have a bluff frequency or AK at all then its a shove, but i doubt he can.

This,

been reading down the thread thinking it.

Opp is never ever ever bluffing and is v unlikely imo to be raising AK if he has it, he is also raising before another is to act.

It a fold here, very tough at the tables to fold tho.

[Deanglow]

i obviously shoved and he folded so wtf

[Fnord]

i obviously shoved and he folded so wtf

New flash, online nits who don't go busto bluff sometimes!

[Da GOAT]

lol