bet river?

[will641]

villain is 18/14/2 over 100 hands fwiw. his range seems heavily weighted to 88-JJ. im wondering if this river is a bet given that. an argument for checking back is obviously with the flush card he would probably fold to anything large, so maybe a gay bet is in order? i think if river is a non spade its a pretty clear bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($204.40)
MP ($210.95)
Hero (Button) ($498.10)
SB ($128)
BB ($228.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
1 fold, MP bets $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) Q, 7, 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $12, MP calls $12

Turn: ($39) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $28, MP calls $28

River: ($95) 3 (2 players)
MP checks,

check it back, he's folding a queen here if you bet big
if he has JJ he can never put us on a worse hand because every single draw has two pair or straight or flush

and don't feel bad when he shows 88-JJ because he probably folds those hands on the river to any bet that is not super gayly-sized
in this situation, I don't expect him to have better a lot, but I don't expect him to call either

he has some hands in his range that beat us though, like 76, 66
there's some value in betting, but I just don't see how we can make anything other than an "insult" bet of like $15

[Da GOAT]

is there any chance he will c/r bluff here? even to a gay bet?

i cant see 88-TT call here, JJ maybe cry calls but i doubt it. Prob just check back though im interested in others opinion.

[nutsinho]

seems like a pretty clear bet and i dont know why you want to size it small if you have any respect for his hand reading ability

[Alexos]

cbet % is pretty important here, idk why people always put the wrong info.. like when they get 4bet, they put the other guys 3bet% info wtf (nothin against u Will just a general observation )

anyway, it def looks like 88-JJ a lot so id bet this river always, maybe ~$65ish

[Alexos]

i guess its one of those spots where u ask urself why in the world would he c/c 3 streets with QK/AK or better (lol) so no point checking

[CBAT]

I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.

[Alexos]

I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.

u think a big part of his range is FD's or 3x?

[ATOTHEC101]

You're good a ridiculous amount of the time, and given the passive line he's taken plus the scary river he'll just reckon we're trying to bluff him.

Rivers a def bet, a gay bet doesn't achieve much as it's very unlikely he'll spazz if you bet small, $68 on the river please.

[bjsaust]

Spade is fairly meaningless, in fact it could even help you (he may think you're bluffing at it). Surely he never has a FD here, he'd cbet that if he's anything like a std TAG (which his stats indicate).

I'd tend to make it about $60.

[Silly String]

Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.

[griffey24]

I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.

u think a big part of his range is FD's or 3x?

ummm 6x?

Villain here seems very tight, and that's not to say that we're not ahead, but I'm not really convinced a river bet here has THAT much value given the board.

flush and straight gets there, and while he might not have those, it makes a call from worse by a tight player a lot more unlikely. I'm not surprised to see KQ by passive nitish players here either.

56 and 67 also seem possible here. meh I think I check here sometimes, but if I have a read that he plays 99-JJ type hands on this board like this and/or is prone to heroish calls then I'd bet $60ish.

[Da GOAT]

I agree with griffey

[bode]

if i've seen him make some hero calls in the past then i like a bet, but really wtf are we ahead of that calls a bet on this river? 99-JJ is pure hero call and is behind always vs our range here. i mean, maybe we get exactly KQ to fold, but that seems like the only upside to betting here imo.

[oskar]

c-bet%?

It's really unlikely he has you beat imo... whether I bet or not depends on my faith in his hero-call ability, and I'd definitely try to make it look like a bluff. I don't think anything under 2/3 pot is getting called by a middle pair.

Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.

I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play

[will641]

i didnt post cbet stat cause its worthless over 100 hands but i dug it up to satisfy the masses. 67% over 3 spots!!!

[bode]

Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.

I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play

i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp.

Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.

I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play

i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp.

I don't know, when I go through the lobby on tilt I have like 2 people on each table already marked
when I sit down I get 3b and 4b like the first hand
so obviously at least it matters the first hand

[bode]

Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.

I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play

i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp.

I don't know, when I go through the lobby on tilt I have like 2 people on each table already marked
when I sit down I get 3b and 4b like the first hand
so obviously at least it matters the first hand

it def matters, i just think some people overrate it. I have probably 10 people in my DB that i have 2k + hands with no datamining.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Unless he has 66 your good here, ofc bet