tpgk + flush draw vs tight player

[daluchy]

45 person SnG about half way through. guy was around 12/4 up to this point

main questions would be, with a guy that tight should i:
1. fold preflop
2. call the turn minraise and reevaluate on river or just push?

---Tournament Summary---
$75 MTT: Payout unknown
Data for 46 hands.
You played 8 hands (17.39%)
You raised 7 times preflop (15.22%)

The Tournament Trimmer (v2.0) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero's M = 23.13
Full Tilt Poker Game #12357878113: $69 + $6 Sit & Go (92250807)
Seat 1: knutschmuh (3,830)
Seat 4: TomCruise7 (1,690)
Seat 5: Luna et Stella5 (1,050)
Seat 6: umass5 (2,210)
Seat 7: Freshfuri (3,310)
Seat 8: bruniing (7,180)
Seat 9: Hero (2,775)
bruniing posts the small blind of 40
Hero posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #7
Preflop
Dealt to Hero J K
knutschmuh: folds
TomCruise7: folds
Luna et Stella5: folds
umass5: raises to 240
Freshfuri: folds
bruniing: folds
Hero: calls 160
Flop: 4 K 8
Hero: checks
umass5: checks
Turn: 9
Hero: bets 300
umass5: raises to 600
Hero:

[revolvingiris]

push...quickly

[golfguy37]

Yup, push all in. Even if he has AK, your in good shape. You can catch a Diamond, or a Jack, unless he has a set, in which case you can still catch a Diamond.

[fjuanl]

I dunno this doesn't seem like an easy spot. Villains line is really scary and we're not in good shape against AK:

Board: 4d Kc 8d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.485% 73.48% 00.00% 194 0.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 26.515% 26.52% 00.00% 70 0.00 { KdJd }

When villain checked behind a flop thats pretty ideal to be cbetting, he likely doesn't have a lot of complete air in his range. So I think its mostly marginal made hands like 99-QQ or big hands like AK/AA/KK/88. Given the guy is playing 12/4, that minraise can't be a lot of semibluffs and probably never a complete bluff.

I'd fold preflop since the villain seems to be a nit and theres no antes. As played, I guess you can call and c/f non-diamond rivers since hes giving you 4.7/1

[mcatdog]

Just call, pushing is terrible. We never fold out a better hand and we just about never get called by a worse one. I don't think I'd fold preflop even the tightest players raise from late position with not much.

If pushing all-in with <30% equity when you know you're getting called seems like good poker to you then you should probably start over from square one, no offense.

[daluchy]

Just call, pushing is terrible. We never fold out a better hand and we just about never get called by a worse one. I don't think I'd fold preflop even the tightest players raise from late position with not much.

If pushing all-in with <30% equity when you know you're getting called seems like good poker to you then you should probably start over from square one, no offense.

Yes I agree with all of this after thinking about it and seeing everyone's posts.

It was kinda tough to decide what to do during the actual hand, but analyzing it a little it's pretty clear now it's just a call. Going all in just gets you crushed by hands like AK, KK, or AA or folds out worse hands when you're in a very dominating position. You can just take the favorable odds to improve your hand on the river or keep a worse hand in.

[revolvingiris]

but that's assuming villain ONLY has AK...When you open his range a little bit, you become the favourite...

3,300 games 0.005 secs 660,000 games/sec

Board: 4h Ks 8h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.788% 58.79% 00.00% 1940 0.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 41.212% 41.21% 00.00% 1360 0.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }


---

77,220 games 0.001 secs 77,220,000 games/sec

Board: 4h Ks 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.755% 60.51% 00.24% 46726 189.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 39.245% 39.00% 00.24% 30116 189.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }


---

155,819,664 games 0.140 secs 1,112,997,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.383% 34.65% 00.73% 53998853 1134332.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 64.617% 63.89% 00.73% 99552147 1134332.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }


---

[revolvingiris]

1,584 games 0.005 secs 316,800 games/sec

Board: 4d 8d Kc 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.924% 54.92% 00.00% 870 0.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 45.076% 45.08% 00.00% 714 0.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }


Even if you tighten his range up a little bit, you still are 54% for equity. Doesn't seem like that bad of a push considering his check raise min bet is kind of weak.

[mcatdog]

Where do those ranges come from?

[daluchy]

1,584 games 0.005 secs 316,800 games/sec

Board: 4d 8d Kc 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.924% 54.92% 00.00% 870 0.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 45.076% 45.08% 00.00% 714 0.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }


Even if you tighten his range up a little bit, you still are 54% for equity. Doesn't seem like that bad of a push considering his check raise min bet is kind of weak.

only hands i'm crushing from there would be TT, JJ, QQ. if i push, those hands are probably folding and the other hands that crush me call. if i call they only have 2 outs, 1 if they don't have the diamond, and i get to draw out for cheap and/or get a value bet in if im ahead.

[fjuanl]

No one is playing TT-QQ like this and a lot of the other hands you entered don't seem right either. I think this is more realistic

Board: 4d Kc 8d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.798% 29.80% 00.00% 354 0.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 70.202% 70.20% 00.00% 834 0.00 { KK+, 99-88, 44, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AKo }

[revolvingiris]

Where do those ranges come from?

The 88+ comes from this question. How are you including 88 and 99 but not everything higher?

AK only comes in because why would villain raise hero on the turn with air?

[revolvingiris]

[quote="daluchy"]

only hands i'm crushing from there would be TT, JJ, QQ. if i push, those hands are probably folding and the other hands that crush me call. if i call they only have 2 outs, 1 if they don't have the diamond, and i get to draw out for cheap and/or get a value bet in if im ahead.

300 into your 2k stack is cheap? Im pushing the turn because I think your ahead and if your not ahead. Your equity is still says its good.

[daluchy]

he can have a set of 8's or 9's with this line. calling is heck of a lot cheaper than putting it all in there when i'm getting smoked by anything he would call with.

[revolvingiris]

No one is playing TT-QQ like this and a lot of the other hands you entered don't seem right either. I think this is more realistic

Board: 4d Kc 8d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.798% 29.80% 00.00% 354 0.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 70.202% 70.20% 00.00% 834 0.00 { KK+, 99-88, 44, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AKo }

no one is playing TT-QQ like this but they are playing AQ, AJ, AT like this?

[fjuanl]

they're all backdoor club draws, so its only 3 hand combinations

[revolvingiris]

they're all backdoor club draws, so its only 3 hand combinations

No i see that..so what your saying is it that villian is more likely to be midraising a backdoor redraw than he/she is to have TT-QQ?

[fjuanl]

Yeah. His range on the flop may have a lot of TT-QQ, but that changes with the turn minraise. I mean...who plays TT-QQ like this?

"Ok...I'm gonna check behind the flop to get to showdown cheaply / I'm scared of the king. Oh...he's leading into me on the turn...time to minraise bluff?"

doesnt make sense

[baudib]

Honestly, I think the AX hands here are really optimistic. Even if you assume he's widening his range in late position, he's cbetting the flop with pretty much all of his range. I can't see how this guy, who is a nit by any definition, is taking a check-behind, min-raise turn with anything less than AK.

Call, and shove if you hit your miracle diamond...his hand is too big to fold.