AKo raised UTG vs 3-bet from LAGG ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 43/29 up to this point. What's your preflop move? Shove over or call and check/raise AI if an A or K hits the flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1530)
MP1 (t1435)
MP2 (t1755)
CO (t1535)
Button (t1365)
SB (t1415)
BB (t3025)
Hero (UTG) (t1440)

Hero's M: 19.20

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
Hero bets t150, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t400, 4 folds, Hero ????

[Projectp]

With AK i think i would call and get it in on a A or K flop, definate check raise AI. If A or K does not hit, i think i cbet if the flop is dry, check and see what villains move is if i dont like the flop.

[baudib]

I can't see how this isn't an easy shove over.

[Projectp]

You would shove this at these blind levels? I dont think i would, maybe thats a leak for me

[golfguy37]

Why not shove? I wouldn't because one of those players is likely to have A K as well and the other probably has a pocket pair. Giving you only 4 outs (KK, AA) total and even if you make those outs, you might just split the pot. I would flat call and wait for a King or an Ace. I wouldn't put all my money in preflop with AK against multiple players. It's just my oppinion though...

[taipan168]

I wouldn't put all my money in preflop with AK against multiple players.

There are no multiple players, everybody else has folded, it's just opp and us.

[rong]

In all probability this is a coin toss if you shove, (unless you think villain would 3bet with AQ or ATC thinking you'll fold) so if you feel you have a good edge over the table, perhaps you should wait for a better opportunity.

If you call and miss, you still have 1000 chips which is enough to still be in the game, so I think I call and hope to flop a pair.

[Skeeno]

Versus the oppo in question running 43/29. I just ship it in and expect him to fold more often than not. If he calls I think we're ahead a good percentage of the time.

[golfguy37]

I wouldn't put all my money in preflop with AK against multiple players.

There are no multiple players, everybody else has folded, it's just opp and us.

DUH! I thought the original raise was from someone else, not Hero. Sorry. Now you gotta shove and it is most probably a race situation.

[kevster]

I can't see how this isn't an easy shove over.

This.

Tai, I can only imagine you're asking this for the benefit of others. I shove this all day long with a smile on my face.

[baudib]

I'm guessing he posted this because he ran into teh rockets.

I go with something chardrian says a lot, and although he's an MTT guy, I think it's applicable here:

If you can include AQ- in his 3-bet range, it's an easy shove.

I think at lower buyin levels, with a tighter player who pretty much plays his cards face up, you can fold this, because this is KK+ a huge percentage of the time. But do LAGs 3-bet AQs at this level? I'm going to guess yes.

EDIT: I think calling is awful here.

[mcatdog]

In all probability this is a coin toss if you shove, (unless you think villain would 3bet with AQ or ATC thinking you'll fold) so if you feel you have a good edge over the table, perhaps you should wait for a better opportunity.

How is it a coin toss in all probability? 29% is a lot of hands to be raising, most of them aren't pocket pairs.

[kevster]

If you can include AQ- in his 3-bet range, it's an easy shove.

I don't even think this hard. There's only two hands we're truly fearing and his range is lot wider than KK+

[taipan168]

I can't see how this isn't an easy shove over.

This.

Tai, I can only imagine you're asking this for the benefit of others. I shove this all day long with a smile on my face.

Yes, the forum was looking a bit slow, I came across this situation which actually caused me to think for a little bit, I thought I'd post it.

[rong]

In all probability this is a coin toss if you shove, (unless you think villain would 3bet with AQ or ATC thinking you'll fold) so if you feel you have a good edge over the table, perhaps you should wait for a better opportunity.

How is it a coin toss in all probability? 29% is a lot of hands to be raising, most of them aren't pocket pairs.

It's a coin toss if he has a pp. I don't think his 3bet range is 29%.

Like I said, will he 3bet with worse than AK or a pp? If the answer is yes then I guess shoving works, but if not its a coin toss.

Why is calling terrible, is it simply because it's almost 1/3 of our stack? Should I take from this that you should never call that large a chunk of your stack? ie over 1/4 of yout stack means shove or fold?

[Raoni_Poker]

I would fold...its just too early to risk it all. Asides from that, his range is not that wide:
1) Pocket pairs (I would say TT+)
2) AJ+ (being generous here)
We can still win the SG if we fold...but if we face a coin flip (which I think is the case), is just too risky at that spot.
However, you can make a different choice based on reads...did he 3Bet many times and with which cards? You can also consider your table image...if the guy thinks you're weak and will fold to any 3bet...you can shove.

Folding changes your table image and you can take advantage of it on a later hand (in my modest opinion).

[baudib]

This is a pretty standard AK situation.

1. I think you guys are overestimating how many "better spots" you get in a normal SnG.
2. If you can include AJ in his 3-bet range, this is an easy shove over because we're ahead of his range:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.466% 40.65% 09.81% 400954872 96780522.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 49.534% 39.72% 09.81% 391771188 96780522.00 { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }

3. Calling is terrible because we are OOP and going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time. We want to be all-in to see all 5 cards. If he has the hands we're slightly behind preflop, it allows him to play perfectly against us.
4. Think about how many hands this guy is playing. 43/29 is a huge amount. Granted, it is early and if we only have hands on him from this tournament, it's not a big sample. Still, even over a couple of orbits, 43/29 is big. It's hard to believe that he would raise 29% and only 3-bet 3% or something.
5. We probably don't have much fold equity, but we don't need very much to make this a profitable shove.

[Nakamura]

3. Calling is terrible because we are OOP and going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time. We want to be all-in to see all 5 cards. If he has the hands we're slightly behind preflop, it allows him to play perfectly against us. much to make this a profitable shove.

+1.

I agree calling is easily the worst play. Even folding is better. AK loses a lot of value unless you can get all your chips in pre-flop. I think the figures other people posted pretty much speak for themselves

[Raoni_Poker]

If villain has AJs or AQs we're ahead 70 x 30 (not that much ahead, by the way)
If villain has AK, we're splitting the pot (most likely)
If villain has PP: coin flip
If villain has AA, KK, we're in bad shape (10 x 90 and 30 x 70)

I still think better opportunities will come along the way, when the push/fold mode is turned on.

[mcatdog]

If villain has AJs or AQs we're ahead 70 x 30 (not that much ahead, by the way)
If villain has AK, we're splitting the pot (most likely)
If villain has PP: coin flip
If villain has AA, KK, we're in bad shape (10 x 90 and 30 x 70).

And if villain has 72o we're ahead 65-35. So what does he actually have then? Do you see how useless this type of analysis is?

[Raoni_Poker]

I was trying to narrow down his range and evaluate different scenarios to show that shoving here is very likely to flip a coin (like baudib has shown with Pokerstove calculations). Even when we're ahead, we're not THAT ahead.

Do we want to risk our 27$ in a coin flip at THIS stage? I would wait, but that's me. I dont claim at all to be a good player...just learning and trying to improve with discussions like these. Which by the way, are not useless for learners like me.

[baudib]

If we're ahead of his calling range, sure.

The problem with saying, "I'm ahead of this hand, and behind all these others..." is that it makes you think you're behind more often than you are. There are many more combos of AQ/AJ out against you than AA/KK.

[dontezuma]

I'm probably shoving over a known LAG, especially if I've seen him lay down to a 4-bet all in. He's probably picked up his extra 255 chips by 3-betting or taking away pots on the flop from people who called his raises, and a good LAG can 3-bet light and get away when someone comes back with a hand.

That said, I don't like stacking off in 8th during the 3rd level with an unimproved AK. I do it occasionally, but I don't like it. I can definitely find a fold here depending on whether I've seen our villain lay down or not.