$16 vs Lag w/ AJ: Push, Raise+call or Open Fold?

[JeffreyGB]

Short stacks are all playing a super-tight game. The big stack with position on us is good, and is using his position well (i.e. has repopped us two or three times so far). We can be pretty confident that if we raise, he is shoving. Do you?
1) Push to limit his range
2) Raise+call because you have huge equity against his range of 90% and will have a huge stack when you win
3) Fold because you don't want to risk most of your stack with so many shorties

Note that our ability to abuse anyone is severely hindered by this guy. Folding basically means that we're folding all hands this and below until blinds are big enough to shove (though there's an argument to be made that they are already...)

What do you think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15+$1 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1510)
BB (t2625)
Hero (UTG) (t4535)
MP (t3325)
Button (t1505)

Hero's M: 15.12

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets t600, MP raises to t3325 (All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls t2725

Flop: (t6950) 4, 4, 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t6950) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t6950) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t6950

[taipan168]

Interesting spot. Are you sure that there are no circumstances where if we raise, opp will fold? I'd need to run the numbers on calling the push after opp raises, which I'll do later. However, against most SNG players this is a pretty easy raise/fold as AJo generally doesn't have enough equity against their ranges once you take the ICM effect into account.

[lockpull]

I would think this would be a fold with the everyone else being shortstacked.

I still have trouble calculating this stuff adding in ICM but when I weigh folding vs calling the shove I come up with it being +EV to fold. I may be wrong but:

I gave villian top 40% shoving range giving us 60/40 equity(too tight/loose?)

+3935 for folding
+4170 call + win (3325*.6)
-1330 call + lose (3325*.4)

So that make it +3935 (folding) vs +2840 (Calling)?

I may be off on something here so please let me know where and where do i take this calculation from here?

[Gshark]

I really don't like the call here, even if his range is huge. No need to risk so much on AJos. This is a raise/fold for me.

[JeffreyGB]

The standard play here is clearly a raise/fold. But this isn't a standard situation. Look beyond this individual hand and see the situation as a whole.

Villain knows that we know that this and most similar spots are raise/fold. He knows that most of our raising range is going to have to be folded. He knows that he can shove any two cards here profitably.

We're not in a 60/40 against his range. Against a random range, we're nearly 65/35.

But I'm not asking about our decision once he shoves. We already know he's going to shove. I'm asking what our decision is initially. It's pointless to raise/fold - that just loses 600 chips.

That's why the options I gave were push, raise+call, or fold. Raise+fold is the same as fold, except we lose 600 chips.

So if you don't like raise+call against a random hand, do you push or fold? Pushing runs the risk of facing a big hand and dropping ~16BB. But there are definite arguments that AJ is too good to open-fold as the big stack five-handed. And Villain knows that he needs a big hand to call us, so we're only getting called by AQ+/JJ+ at the widest (yeah, we're in trouble, but a tiny percent of the range he could have).

[taipan168]

If you believe that opp will shove over with ATC but will only call a shove with AQ+, JJ, and therefore standard raising isn't a good idea with AJo, then it is pretty much neutral EV between shoving and folding assuming that Button and the blinds are reasonably tight.

That said, I still don't believe that it is profitable for MP to shove over with ATC. I ran it in SNG Wiz, and assuming that you open from UTG with 12% (44+, A9o+, A7s+, KQs) and you call a shove with 3% (JJ+, AK) and all the other players call the shove over with JJ+, AK then it is pretty -EV for MP to shove ATC. It's for this reason that I believe raise/fold is the best move (except I'd make it 500 to go so we save some chips if MP or BB do shove over).

EDIT: When I get a sec, let me run the ICM on calling the shove if opp does shove over with ATC.

[JeffreyGB]

Perhaps calling the other player "good" was presumptuous. He's better than the players who blind away, and he's aggro enough not to miss opportunities (which are often the most common errors for people that don't 'get' SNGs).

That said, I'll flavor this post with more info to address the question of "does he really overshove that wide?" The previous orbit saw him overshove on our A9s. A short stack called and we folded. He showed 83o and ended up doubling the short stack's ~800 chips (after which he regained some chips from successfully stealing). So we know he has done this with 83o in similar conditions (save the the shortest short stack was even shorter at the time).

If the EV of a shove vs a fold is pretty close, then that makes me think a fold is the better line, disgusting as that sounds. I will be interested in seeing what you come up with in regards to ICM of ATC.

[dontezuma]

Am I missing something? "Big stack" is shorter than us, so we're the big stack. We need to act like it.

No doubt, I'm open raising to 1800 in this spot, or pushing. That way every player, including our villain, knows I'm playing for stacks. I'm not raise-folding 1800. I think this very effectively narrows his range to something that we can, ironically enough, fold to. If we do fold, I'm not doing anything from here on but push-fold.

It may be -EV, but I'm shoving AJ every time when I'm the big stack, especially in a situation where another player has attempted to assert himself. Let him call down. I don't think he's wise to call w/AQ there. Not with the short stacks. His range is severely crimped and I'm likely to take this with no fight 93 times out of 100.

[dontezuma]

*bump*

This got no further action? This is an important situation that comes up a fair amount, so I would think this thread would be a little longer.

[TLR]

Given the situation I would raise a little less preflop - I would raise to 500.
I would call his shove over if the BB folds. If MP pushes over and BB calls I am giving BB credit for a hand and fold my AJ.
If any of the other short stacks call I call

[taipan168]

Sorry, I never got around to running the ICM of calling the shove:

- If we fold we will have 3935 chips worth 27% of the prize pool
- If we call and win we will have 8160 chips worth 40.5% of the prize pool
- If we call and lose we will have 1210 chips worth 12.3% of the prize pool

Therefore, we need to be (27-12.3)/(40.5-12.3) = 52% to win against opp's range to make this a good call. Therefore, if opp really is shoving over with ATC, this is an easy call. Opp's shove over range for us to break even on the call is something like 44+, A7+, KJ+

[JeffreyGB]

Interesting. There is absolutely no chance that his reshove range is anywhere near that tight. I'm pretty surprised that we don't need more than 52% equity, but I guess the fact that we'll still be in it as one of the short stacks makes the call much better.

It sounds like raise/call is the best choice by a landslide against villains who are shoving a wide range here. I'm positive he shoves 22+, K9+, QT+, JT+, and most Ax hands.

The next question, then, is what is the worst hand where raise/call is the play to make?

[TLR]

The next question, then, is what is the worst hand where raise/call is the play to make?

hard to answer without any info on the remaining players.

Assuming all other players will fold 100% of hands I would say A8+, 66+, KQ, KJs

[JeffreyGB]

The next question, then, is what is the worst hand where raise/call is the play to make?

hard to answer without any info on the remaining players.

Assuming all other players will fold 100% of hands I would say A8+, 66+, KQ, KJs

By the time it's our turn to act, no one else is in the hand. If someone else calls along the way, of course that effects our decision.

That range sounds reasonable from an ICM standpoint. I'm still on the fence about if ICM is entirely correct in telling us to call, moreso as we get lower into our range, obv.

[TLR]

By the time it's our turn to act, no one else is in the hand. If someone else calls along the way, of course that effects our decision.

Since nobody acted yet, everybody is still in the hand, Our initial raising hand is affected by their calling and pushing range vs our raise, and not only by the range of the aggressive player

[JeffreyGB]

By the time it's our turn to act, no one else is in the hand. If someone else calls along the way, of course that effects our decision.

Since nobody acted yet, everybody is still in the hand, Our initial raising hand is affected by their calling and pushing range vs our raise, and not only by the range of the aggressive player

Ok, so you're combining my question of "worst hand we raise/call?" with "what hands do we raise/fold (assuming no one else is in the pot)?" and answering "none" to the later. Definitely reasonable, for exactly the reasons prompting this thread in the first place.