Quiz time 2

[Nakamura]

Second quiz, same rules as last time .... no aids such as SNGWIZ or Poker Stove. No looking at other people's posts before you post.

Opp is reasonable and is running at 23/16/1.0 over 84 hands. For the sake of simplicity assume his range is 70% in this particular spot (I know it can be argued his range here should be 100%).

1. Can you call profitably here?
2. What is our calling equilibrium point? ... i.e. roughly what % of hands does our opp need to be pushing for us to break even with a call with KTo?
2. What is your calling range given his pushing range?

Answer the questions from an ICM perspective (ignore any other factors). I will post the answers if enough folks have a stab.

Please don't be afraid to answer, I promise it will help improve your game to think about these situations.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB)
SB ($2,900)
Hero ($1,655)
CO ($3,085)
BTN ($1,360)

SB posts $150
Hero posts $300

Dealt to Hero KT

CO folds
BTN folds
SB raises to $2,900 (AI)
Hero ??

[taipan168]

Cool quiz like the last one was, thanks for posting.

If I was in SB's position I would definitely shove 100% unless I knew BB would call very loose (ie. that he/she was either a very good or a very bad player). Even if opp shoves 70% of hands my guess is that KTo is a profitable call here.

As for the % of hands that opp needs to be shoving to make KTo a profitable call, my guess would be around 40-50% or wider.

As for the % of hands we can call with if opp shoves 70%, my guess is top 25-30%.

Hope I'm not way off base!

[kevster]

Depends. When tackling the questions, are we concerned with ICM?

We're on the bubble, the BTN has 1 BB less than us and will have to cough up another BB in 2 hands. Maybe I've been playing DONs too much but we're not uber-desperate are we?

[Nakamura]

Depends. When tackling the questions, are we concerned with ICM?

We're on the bubble, the BTN has 1 BB less than us and will have to cough up another BB in 2 hands. Maybe I've been playing DONs too much but we're not uber-desperate are we?

Yes, answer the question purely based on ICM. It can argued there will be bigger edges (esp if your opps fold too much) and therefore there is a bigger advantage in folding.

[Rage2100]

I think this is really close, so it would depend on what you mentioned, whether the other players have been folding too much to pushes themselves.

KTo is right on my limit for calling/folding.

[rong]

1. Yes I think you can profitably call.

2. I'd guess approx 50% shoving by villain to make this a profitable call.

3. I'd guess J9 plus is probably profitable calling range if villain is shoveing 70%.

But I'd fold in a game, purely due to the other small stack. Happily shove all sorts, but I don't like calling here at all. Although it would also depend on the quality of the other small stack & the fella to my left.

[mcatdog]

1. no

2. somewhere around 90%

3. 55+, A8+, KQ

However, I don't see how assuming a range of 70% is good "for the sake of simplicity." Any good reg is shoving 100% here so it seems like a good, simple assumption to assume that this guy is as well.

[Nakamura]

However, I don't see how assuming a range of 70% is good "for the sake of simplicity." Any good reg is shoving 100% here so it seems like a good, simple assumption to assume that this guy is as well.

You are correct in that any good regular at a decent site should be pushing ATC or close to it. However, this is not one the main poker rooms and given how badly players play on this particular site, I think somewhere between 60% and 80% is more likely. I have rarely (if ever) seen a player on this site push ATC consistently. In the end I didn't post specifically why his range is not 100%, as I thought it would detract from the problem.

[ReefAquarium]

Opp is reasonable and is running at 23/16/1.0 over 84 hands. For the sake of simplicity assume his range is 70% in this particular spot (I know it can be argued his range here should be 100%).

1. Can you call profitably here?

Easily

2. What is our calling equilibrium point? ... i.e. roughly what % of hands does our opp need to be pushing for us to break even with a call with KTo?

I'd call with top 55%

2. What is your calling range given his pushing range?

Something like
Ax
Kx
Q5
J7
22
suited 2 gaps above 86
maybe stuff as bad as T8

Answer the questions from an ICM perspective (ignore any other factors). I will post the answers if enough folks have a stab.

I assume this is a 50/30/20 split and you are 1 before the bubble...
I honestly don't know how ICM effects this ... I'm a cash game player so I can't talk about ICM and have it make sense.

Please don't be afraid to answer, I promise it will help improve your game to think about these situations.

thanks for posting

[ReefAquarium]

Wow it looks like my range is way looser than the other people.

I sort of think he would push with a deuce and the cut card here,

I suspect he would easily push with something like 96o and I'd call with T7o.

I'd be fine getting it in with T8o.

[dontezuma]

There's no way I can see this being a correct call, given that I can shove the next hand ATC and likely get away with it. Perhaps I'm too tight though. The bubble is where all the money is made, IMO. Reef, cash is a totally different game. But because we are gambling with our tournament equity rather than just cash in the hand, I think this is a pass.

Nak, I'm really looking forward to you posting that answer, mathematically, because I can't see a call being wise here. I'm calling only top 10%, I think, because of the shorter stack.

[Nakamura]

Nak, I'm really looking forward to you posting that answer, mathematically, because I can't see a call being wise here. I'm calling only top 10%, I think, because of the shorter stack.

In a few days young Padawan .... we'll wait for a few more people to answer first.

[Fielmann]

1. no

2. 80%

3. 88+, AT+, KQ

[kevster]

Purely looking at question 1.....

- If we fold we have a chance of making the money.
- If we call and lose we're out.
- If we call and win we practically guaranteed the money

I'd normally fold this in a heartbeat. However, if villain is pushing 70% and we know that KT is in the top 20% of hands then it looks like a profitable call.

However, I think ICM (a decent chance that a fold will see us into the money) means that this is really close. I'm going to say that we can call and show a profit but I think it's very marginal. As I say, I'd ordinarily fold.

[ReefAquarium]

Wow it looks like my range is way looser than the other people.

I sort of think he would push with a deuce and the cut card here,

I suspect he would easily push with something like 96o and I'd call with T7o.

I'd be fine getting it in with T8o.

I was considering it from a stupid cash game players point of view...

I've thought about this question some more.

... If we can just fold our way to 3rd play we gain 20% equity by just folding our way to 3rd.

If we get it all in and win win gain... Not too much equity... say 25% equity...

So we are risking 20% to win 5% more? so we have to win more than 4 times out of 5...

So we need a *much* better hand say, to 10-20%

??

[Nakamura]

Since we have run out of steam ....

1. No.

2. 79%

3. 66+, A9+, A7s+, KJ+, KTs+

In the end the decision is very marginal and the crux of the decision rests on your opponents pushing range. If it's 100%, you can call, if it's 70% you can't.

And the winner is..... well it depends on where you are in the world.

1. England - There are no losers, only winners - you all get a medal (as long as you have filled in your health and safety form).
2. Africa - It depends on who send me the largest cheque. Alternatively, a 4x4 is ok.
3. Australia - You all down beer. Last man standing wins.
4. United States - It depends. Did you vote for Barrack or not?
5. China - Only one winner. The rest of you will be imprisoned for crimes against the state by not studying ICM hard enough.

Seriously, Fielmann had the closest answer. Well done to everyone.