bad beats

[fakedecoy]

I play a lot of turbo 9-player SNGs on FTP.

What do I do when I keep getting knocked out by bad beats? I estimate that about 80-90% of the times I get eliminated it's a bad beat, and the result is I'm barely staying even with my bankroll. Typically it's a matter of going all in pre-flop (the blinds increase quickly and it doesn't take long for all-in to be the only good move) and being beaten on the river by a dominated hand or two low cards vs. my two high.

Could I be unnecessarily putting myself in this situation too often? It seems like the way to overcome this is being able to absorb a bad beat or two with a big enough stack, gained through stealing smaller pots. But I'm hesitant to do so, because I recently stopped bluffing so much early in the tournaments and began raising higher with good hands, because of all the donks early on that would call or raise anything.

Maybe a different SNG structure would be more advantageous to me? Am I just asking to get knocked out by bad beats with this structure I'm playing in now?

[taipan168]

Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here.

I suggest you read this post about bad beats - http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t61079.html. In summary, you should be GLAD to suffer a bad beat because by definition it means that you got your chips in as a favourite but the cards did not fall your way.

Otherwise, I suggest you post some hands/tourneys so we can give you some advice as to whether you made correct decisions. In poker, making the right decision in the face of incomplete information is all you can do - if the cards then don't fall your way then that's poker.

[fakedecoy]

I think you may have misread my post. I know that getting bad beats is a good sign. I actually was going to say so in my first post but I thought it was too obvious and just cut to the chase. I'm glad when I get beat by a bad beat, because it shows I made the right decision.

The problem is I'm losing such a high proportion of games by bad beats. It's like I'm putting myself in situations where eventually a bad beat will get me. I want to know if there's a way to avoid it. But maybe there are too many variables and it's hard for anyone to say without knowing more detail about my play.

[taipan168]

The problem is I'm losing such a high proportion of games by bad beats. It's like I'm putting myself in situations where eventually a bad beat will get me. I want to know if there's a way to avoid it. But maybe there are too many variables and it's hard for anyone to say without knowing more detail about my play.

Correct, it's very hard to give general advice like this without something concrete to discuss. Post some hands where you have been wondering whether you made the right decision and we'll take a look.

The other thing worth noting is that the "long term" in poker is usually much longer than most people expect (ie. it's possible to get unlucky over a longer period of time than you could possibly imagine).

[Fortitude]

Ive been feeling the same exact way. Like I know it is a bad beat, but then I question myself as to whether I should have been in that position with such a low chip stack (i.e. I have been too passive in the lower-mid blind level). I feel as if the bad beat (busting out of the SNG) has happened not because I made a +EV push, but because i did not make expected +EV pushes earlier in the tournament.
Today I lost AA to 55
Lost AQ to KJ
and lost QQ to AQ

gg

[fakedecoy]

Totally. I'm thinking I've gotten too tight and am depending too much on those kinds of hands. Even though they do come up, I'm often below average stack size when they do, and there are other opportunities to build my stack that I'm neglecting and would protect me against elimination.

[baudib]

Stop overthinking it when you get it in up 60-80%.

[taipan168]

Today I was delighted to get it in as an 80% favourite AA to 55
Fist pump when he called my AQ with KJ
and leapt for joy when I got it AI with QQ to AQ

FYP

[linaker]

Bad beats are an indication of good play. But I have been wondering if all bad beats is a sign of playing too tight. I think I have only had a couple of "good beats", (ie inflicting a bad beat on someone else) in the past month, so I am now working on opening up my shoving range.

The other point is that the faster the blinds increase, the more luck affects the final result. You might want to try some non turbo SNGs.

[natso]

It's all about your mindset. Sure it sucks to be in a long streak of hands seemingly never holding up, but stats are stats. If you get your money in ahead a majority of the time, you're going to come out ahead in the long run, simple as that. If you're serious about the game, you have to learn how to play through the downswings. You can look for leaks and try to find more spots to accumulate chips along the way, but the cards don't care if you're the CL or a SS, it just comes down to math. And like Tai said, "long term" can seem ridiculously long sometimes. That's why patience and persistence are some of the best attributes a poker player can have, imho. GL

[drmcboy]

the answer to your questions:

Yes, you should try and win chips however you can, including pots that are shown down and pots that are not shown down. If you are never a big stack, you're doing something wrong.

No, you should not bluff if people are going to call

No, the best hand does not win every time

Yes, you still want to have it

Your sample size is too small

Your brain is a terrible instrument for determining how you are running.

[surviva316]

i think i can reword taipan's point by saying, aside from the fact that your sample size is small, if you're going break even it's NOT because of the hands you lost when you were a 60-80% favorite. we can diagnose what exactly it's the result of until you post hand histories or tournaments or ask questions about specific situations.

also turbos are super high variance so you're not gonna see a representative winrate for a while. also i've recently found that the biggest leak in my ROI is that i've had twice as many 2nd's as 1st's. once you get to second, it's one on one and there's no excuse to lose more than you win (chip stacks aside, of course). it seems that HU play would be especially important in turbos where you have to essentially luck your way ITM, so a lot of your ROI's going to be maximizing on the opportunities with more cognitive poker

[Extremophile]

As long as there are dumb players around, you will both easily double up and easily get knocked out. there is nothing more you can do when you put your chips in with the best hand.

[Extremophile]

Bad beats can be related to how often you see the flop with the worse hand.