Preflop shove or muck?

[Marshall28]

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($200)
BB ($203)
UTG ($450.45)
MP ($232.90)
CO ($182.95)
Hero (Button) ($321.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
UTG bets $10, 2 folds, Hero calls $10, SB raises $35, 2 folds

Total pot: $32

This may seem like a trivial decision, but I honestly think that it could be a fold...

UTG is only opening 7% Kapie is SB and at worst has AK/QQ+ here, I think he basically never has JJ or a bluff. Does that make this a fold?

[ATOTHEC101]

ehhh I probs just call and see a flop seeing as we have position and a very strong hand that is behind his 5 bet shoving range, I don't think folding is terrible though.

[BigPapi]

I agree SB wouldnt bluff a lot here against UTG. But we still have 42% equity against SB's range w AKs. I assume UTG has folded already.

I think it's a call, because against his range we have no fold equity, like AtotheC says. And we're in position

[Da GOAT]

U can fold sure, too many ppl get attached to AK

[dsaxton]

Yeah, I think calling seems good.

I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast

[daven]

folding here doesn't seem to be bad at all given reads.
You're giving him a range of 3xAA, 3xAK, 6xQQ, 9xAK that is weighted towards the strong end of things. Calling is bad cos you are likely to be unhappy with any flop...

[Dueces88]

I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast

I think this is a leak that I need to plug. I auto-shove AK way too much without looking at the details of the hand so far.

OP, if you are confident in your reads, then I'd go with the fold.

[bikes]

Need to know more about how game flow is going tbh. But most likely I'd still fold.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Unless you got some sort of timing tell or raise size tell id shove.

[IowaSkinsFan]

If your really have 42% equity against a range of QQ+, AK and your absolutely positive that is his range, then its still incredibly close, to the point where I think you have to take into consideration the fact that he may have JJ some small % of the time or some sort of bluff or AQ or something some very small % of the time.

[bode]

this is way closer to a shove than most of you are saying. Its def. a high variance spot, but a shove i think. Even if villains 3bet is strong because of an UTG opener, it's still a squeeze spot, and in the 1/2 games i'm used to people are def. doing this wider than QQ+/AK. And as ISF said, even if he throws in JJ or a complete bluff some small % of the time, i think this is a +EV spot to shove. Even nitty villains bluff, and he knows since he's squeezing vs an UTG opener that he will look strong and could be taking advantage of this.

[DaGrinch]

I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).

[dsaxton]

I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).

Yes, but there are some spots where A-K is not the nuts, even in 6-max. It may be right to shove in this spot, but it's not obviously right.

[Da GOAT]

42% vs QQ+,AKs,AKo

43% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo (this is ALL JJ holdings)

46% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo,A2s (again all JJ and A2s as the random decent
bluff)

So I fold unless someone does a calc to show based on odds etc that its +EV

[bode]

im bad at EV equations, but i think we would have to be 46%. we are risking $190 to win $220, which we need to win 46% of the time. I think given some FE its a profitable shove.

[mcatdog]

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

[Da GOAT]

id very much doubt we have any FE, im in the folding section of this thread btw mcat

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds

Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here.

[bode]

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds

Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here.

agreed. maybe marshall has a watertight read on this guy, but there are plenty of 1/2 regs i play against that squeeze here just because they have an opportunity.

and utg donk raising to 5x is supposed to be scary or something, i dont get it. Some donks minraise, some open raise any position to 7x.