QQ overpair passive line, check river behind vs good reg?

[daven]

villain is a multi-tabling reg with a 4ptBB/100 winrate at 100 and 200nl over a big sample size - i have this in my pop-up notes as some kind of warning. Over a huge sample he runs 15-12, but 9-8 from ep stretching to 25-20 on the button. He has an exploitably low cbet of 55% and doesn't tangle too hard with regs.

Pre-flop is mostly a 3-bet, but sometimes not. His fold to 3bet is low and he 4-bets about never, meaning that i should probably 3-bet here and be well ahead of his calling range. Flop is dry enough for me to look pretty strong, but after the turn check-call I think he's aiming for showdown, suggests to me that he's on 99/JJ+/AdKd/AdQd cos he's not missing value on TT here. Once he checks river I have options. He's folding his FDs and 99 for sure. He may call with JJ+?

betting here seems obvious, but i doubt there is any value to be had, i'm basically turning my hand into a bluff against the top of his range cos i already have good showdown value.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($100)
BB ($67.95)
UTG ($107.55)
UTG+1 ($112)
MP1 ($132.30)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($188.15)
Hero (CO) ($100)
Button ($58.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
UTG bets $4, 4 folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 3, 10, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14

River: ($49.50) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, bluff my overpair?!?

$28, let HIM find a way to pay you off
the hands he opens, 66+, AQs+, AK may ALL call you
but would he check the turn here with KK+? I mean, does he expect you to float him and continue on the river so he can call you down and say HA! I CAUGHT YOUR BLUFF

there's really nothing that beats you other than like a set that he plays that way to c/r the river

[Extremophile]

He might have hit trip 10s on the river Pot looks big enough to stop betting. take that pot rather than risking more.

correction: that would have been quads.

[badgers]

Whatever you do, if you think betting the river would be a bluff then ofmg do not bet! I think this can easily be JJ+ as you have suggested, a cbet of 55% could be indicative of him bluffcatching a lot with surprisingly strong hands.

It really depends on the history between you, if he thinks you are capable of floating/ firing river w/ air then he's more likely to be doing this with 88/99 intending to call. If you have a nitty image then simply check behind, there's no shame in checking back an overpair.

[oskar]

I already said it in the crosspost at the BC... I really don't see anyone playing AA, KK, TT that way - unless you have a player note that sais he does. He can't have Tx. He might hero-call with AKd, AQd, and he might call with 88, 99, JJ - which I'm pretty sure is most of his range at this point.

I would bet ~25

i fold but if he was aggressive raise

$5

[bigspenda73]

I just love how you say he has an exploitably low cbet % but it one of the biggest winners at 100 and 200nl.

Yeah actually i was wondering how you would exploit a 55% cbet, i mean maybe there's a way but since i assume his checking range is somewhat balanced it doesn't sound that bad. I'd think 80% cbet would be easier to exploit.

giving up whenever he cbets unless you have a nuttish hand?

[Parasurama]

I just love how you say he has an exploitably low cbet % but it one of the biggest winners at 100 and 200nl.

This is exactly what I thought. The only way I can see to exploit this is just cold-call way more hands in position against him but that invites its own problems, i.e. getting squeezed sucks.

Be open to the idea that cbetting 55% is actually a better way to play your limit.

[Deanglow]

yeah just bet $32 and hope he calls but this is thinner than you guys think