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 Originally Posted by Extremophile
 Originally Posted by Im_new
 Originally Posted by Extremophile
It also depends on the prizes. If you are in a big tourney like PokerStars Sunday Million, the difference between 9th place and 5th place is 50k. Sometimes you need be a businessman.
That's the entire argument here. ICM assumes that every other player is making the optimum decision given his stack size and payout. I'm trying to figure out how things will change when those players are neglecting to make correct decisions, thus playing passively and surviving longer than we anticipate.
Well, that is the case when the ultimate goal is to win or so to say only the first place is paid. In that case, you would expect even more action from short stacks. Short stacks have no time to wait and should shove with any 2 or any reasonable 2 cards if they want to have a chance to win. Because as long as they wait, even if they double up, they will still be short stacked and the probability of thier getting eliminated increases everytime they put all their chips in.
Otherwise "right play" is case dependent. How do you define right play? Playing for win or playing for getting the best prize for the specific case?
The "right" decision is the one that will yield the most profit in the long haul. Usually, the "right" decision is to play using ICM. But, I'm noticing that at a final table where everyone isn't well-versed in correct, mathematical play (ICM), it becomes very dangerous waters for those players who ARE versed. This often leaves the ICM-guy either OTM, or in the top three, which has amplifying affect on variance. I'm not saying that it is an absolute bad thing, but I'd like to discuss how we can exhaust our poker toolbag to get more 1-3 finishes by exploiting these situations with minimal risk.
As far as your question, I think it depends on the tournament type and your stack size. If this is the sunday million and I'm in 9th place with a short stack that'll last a couple of orbits, (the big/average stacks are 4+ consecutive double-ups away) I'm not gonna play very much risky poker. If this is a 45man tourney, I'm shooting for first with whatever stack I have. All of this is very situationally dependent and there are times where ICM doesn't feel perfectly adequate.
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