Value bet river?

[Marshall28]

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($432.90)
Hero (BB) ($272.85)
UTG ($310.95)
MP ($227)
Button ($207.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, J
UTG bets $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($13) Q, 10, J (3 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG raises $24, 1 fold, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($61) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $48, UTG calls $48

River: ($157) 5 (2 players)


Total pot: $157

Villain is same 25/50 reg that is down 200k or whatever.

I led flop thinking I didn't want to see it get checked around, nor did I want to have to c/c or c/r since both options suck. I was fine w/ villain raising as I think he can have AA/KK/AQ/KQ/KJ/Q9, Axcc/Kxcc type hands. I think my lead on turn is standard and his flat gives me good info that the only possible hands he could have that beat me are QJ/QT and like a set but very rarely a set. So I think he has missed clubs on river, a couple better 2 pairs, then hands like AA/KK/KQ/AQ.

Anyways, should I have thrown another value bet out on the river? and if so how much? Like 80? Unsure. Thoughts?

[BigPapi]

then hands like AA/KK/KQ/AQ.

these are the only hands we can get value out of and I think he would call 80 with these. But as you say, you think his range is missed clubs and 2pairs more often then these hands, so personally I like c/c more against a missed draws/2p range > worse hands that call a v-bet. If I would bet, I would make it the same amount I would bet a missed club draw with, but again this would be better if we would think he has those 4 hands more then missed clubs/2p

Then again I dont play against 25/50 regs at all

[ATOTHEC101]

I just check river with the intention of either c/cing or c/ring dependent on bet size.


I also quite like $28 on the river, he raises all hands aq and better for value, plus will likely raise all his missed draws as you look so weak, I think it's kinda sexy.

[mixchange]

well your line looks like a defensive play against draws, so I dont like checking river at all, id rather make a $60ish bet on river

[IowaSkinsFan]

Oh god fold pre

I'd c/c down as played

[Marshall28]

fold pre to minraise ?

[Luke999]

Calling J10os OOP vs UTG raise and button call, tell me whats good about it.

[bode]

Calling J10os OOP vs UTG raise and button call, tell me whats good about it.

i would agree if it was a normal raise, but vs a minraise getting 5.5:1 i call too.

[Marshall28]

The more I think about it the more this river should be a standard value bet of like 2/3 pot. If I'm betting turn it's obv because I think I'm getting called by worse, and I know most people don't have a clear enough understanding of ranges in this spot. Gah, shoulda bet.

[OP]

I'm curious as to why you did what you did on the turn

According to your reasoning and reads wouldn't 3bet/get it in maximize value against draws and p+draws

[dsaxton]

Building a big pot here seems like a mistake to me.

if you were aggressive before the flop on the turn and bet the river touched but also has to hand the type of ligaste

[WillburForce]

if you were aggressive before the flop on the turn and bet the river touched but also has to hand the type of ligaste

who needs nutsinho when you have these sort of clear, helpful posts.

Aljimene87 for mod imo.

[ric_aapoker]

Ak the flop would be complicated because you would be committees in the pot with two pairs, then it would be easier to read the player's hand now I find it very difficult to get the guy so the Q10 turner river and left you in a comfortable position!

[Sir Pawnalot]

I would weigh his hand towards 99, 9T, AQ, AA + flush draws, less towards sets, better two pairs and KK. IMO he would probably jam turn with AK, sets and better two pair because of the clubs.

Now I do not know his timing, emotional state, betting patterns etc- but I feel that only hands we get value from if betting is AQ, AA (have rarely met ppl who minbets KK ).

The drawy hands like 99, 9T, flush draws, PP+straight draws will likely fold to a bet- but may very well spew if checked to.

ATOTHECS suggestion to bet small is indeed sexy, as the mentioned drawy hands have too little Equity to call, but may feel he has good FE to pop a reraise. But it may be detrimental to your metagame.

From this it seems that we have three good options. 1. Valuebet standard size, 2. valuebet small size (inducing reraise with worse), or 3. check call for the same reasoning as 2.

Anyways- I feel our E is very good here.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Your hand is not terribly strong and you have horrible reverse implied odds. I'd c/c the flop, especially since you aren't really getting 3 streets of value from leading anyway.

[Sir Pawnalot]

I find c/c on the flop very strange. This line gets very little value from all drawing hands. I believe the chances of him minraising with QQ, JJ or TT preflop is very slim. Only hand I put in his range that beats us is 89 in addition to a slim chance of AK.

But my main point is that I believe he would shove turn with those hands, because OPs line is very strong and villain thinks he got little fold Equity. Him just calling turn, makes me think OP is ahead very often on river with this draw heavy board.

Also check calling a regular here is bad for our metagame. I would prefer OPs line- or check/raise/shove, or bet/shove.

I disagree our hand is not very strong here. Even when we are behind we have some Equity.

[dsaxton]

This line gets very little value from all drawing hands.

The problem is that a lot of his opponent's drawing hands have huge equity anyways, so it doesn't make sense to talk about getting "value" from them.

[Sir Pawnalot]

We have equity advantage over most draws- not much but a little. Therefore we certainly do gain value from them by betting/raising.

I like to push my small edges, and with a redraw our Equity is even better versus those draws. Id play 60/40, 55/45 edges for stacks any day.

[dsaxton]

Yeah, if you know he has a drawing hand, then it makes sense to push your edge however small, but when your opponent occasionally has you crushed, I think this is enough to favor a more passive line since you aren't giving up much by not playing aggressively.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Yeah, if you know he has a drawing hand, then it makes sense to push your edge however small, but when your opponent occasionally has you crushed, I think this is enough to favor a more passive line since you aren't giving up much by not playing aggressively.

pwnalot, basically this ^^^

[Fnord]

Oh god fold pre

I love how the winning online players make me feel like such a LAgg...

If the Button is terrible, this is mandatory call. Otherwise, I find it really interesting that ISF wants to fold here if the button isn't a drooler.

[dsaxton]

I think folding preflop would be atrocious. You're getting really nice odds against a probable weak player. I'd call with much worse here.

preflop you literally have odds to nutcamp