Shove ATC here?

[Stingeh]

Villain has been pretty tight, pushing occasionally to keep his stack over 1k, but has always folded to raises and shoves since the blinds hit 75/150.

Given that we are both around 7.5 BBs deep and blinds were due to go up in <1 minute - should this be a spot were I shove with any two?

PokerStars Game #29388587465: Tournament #171956577, $3.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/06/15 13:36:41 WET [2009/06/15 8:36:41 ET]
Table '171956577 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: melo55555 (2340 in chips)
Seat 3: Stingeh (1425 in chips)
Seat 5: inga-ice (1510 in chips)
Seat 6: ShakaFido22 (3725 in chips)
Stingeh: posts small blind 100
inga-ice: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Stingeh [5s 8d]
ShakaFido22: folds
melo55555: folds

[GatorJH]

do you have sngwiz or sngpt? If so put villains calling range in and you will get your answer

[Stingeh]

Unfortunately I don't. Based on his play at the time, I would have said that he was definitely calling with any pair and probably K9s+, A5o+, given the blind levels. Would be handy if someone could crunch the numbers for me

[Raoni_Poker]

Without any calculations, I would not shove in this spot with that hand. When you shove, you dont want a call and your opponent can take advantage of that. Basically, he cant know what you have, but he can know what you dont have (with stronger hands like TT+ AJ+ you would not shove, you would call or min raise because you WANT to play these hands and call a shove with it if villain shoves over you). Therefore, he can call here with a better than average hand.

In mathematical terms, I guess this is a reasonable shove, because he would fold most of the time. According to ICM calculations, your shoving range is 66% (22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J7o+ T3s+ T7o+ 94s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s) and 85o is out of that range (almost in, though). Villain should call 41% of the time, so...I would not shove with hands on the bottom of that range. Of course, his range is in fact not that wide assuming he is not playing with an ICM calculator.

Regardless of ICM results, I still think you'll have better shoving opportunities for blind stealing and doubling up.

[taipan168]

I would insta shove this in a game.

I ran it through SNG Wiz and it is a +EV call if opp calls with less than about 38% of hands. Given that we have opp almost covered, I can't see him calling that wide. In fact, if the widest calling range that opp might have for a shove with ATC to be profitable is 22+, A2+, K8o+, K4s+, QTo+, Q9s+ and JTs.

[Stingeh]

Thanks for the replies, I suck at ICM math so this really helps. Must get round to buying SNGwiz.

As it happens, I did shove and was called by QTs, which held. However, I do think this was pretty much the bottom of his calling range, was quite surprised to see that the shove is still +EV even when he calls with a range as wide as taipan laid out in the previous post.

[Wolle]

Thanks for the replies, I suck at ICM math so this really helps. Must get round to buying SNGwiz.

SnGWiz offers af 30-day free trial. You could start there.

As it happens, I did shove and was called by QTs, which held. However, I do think this was pretty much the bottom of his calling range, was quite surprised to see that the shove is still +EV even when he calls with a range as wide as taipan laid out in the previous post.

Even when you're called, you can expect to suck out about 1/3 of the time. That's a not insignificant contribution to your equity here.