TT flops the lowest overpair ($27)

[taipan168]

Usually I limp in this spot and play for set value but I thought I'd mix it up a little. What to do once I get check/raised? No reads on this guy, this is only the second hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1500)
Button (t1490)
SB (t1510)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
Hero (MP3) (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 10, 10
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, 2 folds, Hero bets t100, 2 folds, SB calls t90, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t80

Flop: (t320) 5, 9, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t220, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t500, Hero ????

[GatorJH]

Let it go. Your equity in the hand sucks against his range unless air is a big part of that range (which I doubt it is). You are even behind most of the draws in his range.

[surviva316]

off topic, but is it just me, or is villain's bet-sizing brilliant if he has a hand like 98s? aside from the fact that just about no matter what he has there are scare cards that can come from the turn, his bet is low enough to tempt the donks and tilt the regs (iopq says that 2.5x's and less raises tilt regs), yet big enough to set up for a turn push

[kstarm]

I agree on folding. You really do not know where you stand, especially without some type of read. Plently of time and chips left to play with.

I can see an argument for pushing over in that you would expect most people to lead out to protect a made hand on a board that is this coordinated, but I would want much more history with a player before making a play like that.

[taipan168]

Thanks for the replies. A related question - what would we do if we had KK in this spot?

[lockpull]

Thanks for the replies. A related question - what would we do if we had KK in this spot?

I may be off here but I don't think KK changes this situation by a whole lot does it? (ready to be flamed for this) I don't see him limp calling JJ+/AK from UTG+1/min raising PFRer for 40% of his stack too many times, though I guess it is still possible. I don't think he is minraising TT on this flop either. So that really leaves me with 99/88/55/98s/JT and maybe Ac8c. I don't have stove at work but this looks like a bad spot to be in. Interested on your thoughts on my thinking here.

All that being said I still shove though be a tiny bit happier if I hold Kc.

[baudib]

I didn't stove this but I think it's closer than you guys are suggesting.

Still, it's a flop that hits limp-callers pretty hard cuz he can have a lot of 2 pair+ hands, but I think he has a lot of 9x/8x/air as well.

[TLR]

Tough spot
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

99,990 games 0.010 secs 9,999,000 games/sec

Board: 5c 9c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.194% 50.71% 00.49% 50703 486.00 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 48.806% 48.32% 00.49% 48315 486.00 { TT-55, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, A9s-A8s, Ac7c, Ac6c, KcQc, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o-A8o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }

Given a somewhat optimistic range and ignoring the chance he is bluffing you are about even money here.
I can see a fold here

off topic, but is it just me, or is villain's bet-sizing brilliant if he has a hand like 98s? aside from the fact that just about no matter what he has there are scare cards that can come from the turn, his bet is low enough to tempt the donks and tilt the regs (iopq says that 2.5x's and less raises tilt regs), yet big enough to set up for a turn push

2.5x open raise on the button
not quite the same as a flop raise

but yeah, his bet sizing sets up a turn shove

Board: 5c 9c 8d

Hand 0: 43.072% { ThTs }
Hand 1: 56.928% { TT-55, A9s, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc8c, Qc7c, JTs, Jc8c, Tc8c, T7s, 98s, 8c7c, 8c6c, 85s, 76s, A9o, JTo, 98o, 76o }

who likes calling and getting it in on a safe turn though? seems like a viable line, but I don't have experience with it... (also there's like no safe turns left...)

let's mess around with that idea
our range improves with an offsuit jack over his, but not any card over a jack
but actually any broadway doesn't really change anything because he doesn't necessarily hit it as long as it's not a club so we're ok with playing for stacks on even a king or queen (ace is gross though) we're still above 40% given my range
we're OK with another 9/8/5, we're still shoving it in (non club)
that's 28 cards we're willing to play for stacks with better than just 40% odds on the turn

furthermore, say there's a club on the turn and we check and he has a hand we crush like A9
he might just pot control and show it down

thoughts?

[Trons]

Personally, I think we're giving a lot of credit to an unknown. I can see a lot of hands limp/calling pre then going for the check/raise on the flop that we dominate that were not included in the range. We didn't inlcude hands like T9, Axs (x<6) or the over cards hands like KT+ or QT+, that he's just making move on to see if you just have AJ and are willing to let it go. While this hand hits hits his limp calling range hard, it also misses our pfr range almost always (except for the over pairs).

His bet sizing is perfect for the shove on the turn, but it's also decent for a fold to another raise. Granted, this is more a donk play, but I'm giving him more credit for being stupid then being smart more for being a devils advocate here then because I acutally believe it.

Having said that, I think a fold is still good given the stage of the tourney and all other factors. Obviously, a read on villain would be nice. I also think if you're for folding TT here, you have to be for folding KK here unless you can put him on specifically limp/calling with JJ or QQ (which are really the only 2 hands that affect the ranges. when I stoved it with TLR's ranges, even AA didn't chng the equation that much.

TBH, after seeing how slight the difference is between TT and AA on this board, I think I'm more inclined to a reship. I don't think I could lay down AA here and there is almost no difference in equity between AA and TT on this board with the ranges we've put him on.

[GatorJH]

after playing with some ranges in Pokerstove it is, at worst a tough fold or an easy call based on villain's range and, as Trons correctly stated, AA should play the same as TT here.

So I think if this were an afternoon SNG (for me in EST) where the players are more solid and therefore have tighter ranges this is a snap call.

On the other hand if this were an evening or weekend game where play is looser and more of the speculative/trappy hands are in villain's range I may lay this down as those ranges are the ones that put us as an underdog on this board.

[drmcboy]

are people really talking about folding when we have ~50% equity and tons of dead money?

[baudib]

Hand 0: 43.072% { ThTs }
Hand 1: 56.928% { TT-55, A9s, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc8c, Qc7c, JTs, Jc8c, Tc8c, T7s, 98s, 8c7c, 8c6c, 85s, 76s, A9o, JTo, 98o, 76o }

I think your range is better than the previous one, although I think he still has T9/Q9/J9 so it looks like a pretty clear shove to me.

I'm finding min check-raises on the flop represent complete air about 80% of the time lately.