AKo to raise and shove over ($12/180)

[taipan168]

MP2 had LAGG stats so I would have shoved over NO problem if it wasn't for the SB shover over whose stats were 8/4 up to this point (over about 25 hands). Fold or shove over?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $11+$1 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t5835)
SB (t3675)
Hero (BB) (t4750)
UTG (t1970)
UTG+1 (t2640)
MP1 (t12730)
MP2 (t7015)
MP3 (t3075)
CO (t1230)

Hero's M: 7.92

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
3 folds, MP2 bets t1000, 3 folds, SB raises to t3650 (All-In), Hero ????

[villagenut]

I'm no pro here so I am very interested in hearing everyone's reply on this. I would like to know what the thought process is on making a decision here.
Hear are my thoughts...Am i on the right track?

Do you give SB credit for knowing that MP2 is LAGG and therefore SB is shoving with a wide range.

Do you put SB on some type of hand that he is trying to isolate with.

What range will MP2 push over me if i push here.

I think I'm ahead of MP2 right now.
I think I'm putting SB on 99+ AQ+. Is this too narrow?

What other factors are involved.
I think i'm kicking myself and folding here because it's quite possible that MP2 has one of my A's or K's reducing my outs against a 99+ of SB.

[drmcboy]

gamble, he could be shoving much wider than this with those stack sizes and reads (this is 5%)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,047,930,048 games 0.235 secs 4,459,276,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.634% 39.51% 09.13% 414002100 95651790.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 51.366% 42.24% 09.13% 442624368 95651790.00 { 99+, AKs, AJs, AQo+ }

[hopeful]

SB has M=6, likely shoving a wide range I think this is a no brainer with an m<10 far from the money you got to shove and id be pretty happy about it.( plus you need around 20 000 chips to have a good chance on the final table this is a beeter than average spot to get them)

[mcatdog]

It'd take a really good read for me to fold here, easy shove given the reads you provided.

[baudib]

Concur with everyone who wants to shove....SB is certainly widening his range against late-position LAG, whose range we destroy.

[golfguy37]

I'm thinking one of them has a hand similar to yours and the other has a strong pocket pair. If someone else has an Ace or a King, you have less outs and not as good chance to hit the flop. Had the SB not pushed, I probably would have but since he did, I would avoid this scenario all together and wait for a better spot.

[revolvingiris]

HERO: 34.394% { AKo }

MP2: 26.000% { 22+, A6s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

SB: 39.606% { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Based on the range above, I actually think you fold this...

One assumtion is made, your never calling here only shoving.
If hero moves in and MP2 calls
EV=(34.39)(13775)-(4750)
EV= -12.77

If MP2 Folds
However I left MP2s stats in as they still effected you at the time of you making your choice to fold or push.
EV=(34.39)(10025)-(4750)
EV= -1302.40

Assuming MP2 will always fold
EV=(47.94)(10025)-(4750)
EV= +55.98

I could see an argument made for either folding or calling.