100NL float/double barrel

villain is running 23/13 with 25% steal over 177 so I flat IP

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($148)
SB ($102.30)
BB ($64)
UTG ($224.80)
MP ($124.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 9, 4, 2 (2 players)
MP bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) 6 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $13, MP calls $13

River: ($44.50) K (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $38

I feel like when I bet the turn I'm committed to bet the river
should I be just checking the turn back and trying to show down?

[dsaxton]

Again not sure why you bet the turn. All I see this accomplishing is charging yourself to draw against 7-7. If he has a hand like A-J, A-T, K-Q, Q-J, Q-T, etc, you want him to see the river.

[Parasurama]

well your range for value betting the river after value betting the turn seems very narrow

[dev]

What para said...

This is kind of a brute force bluff, there isn't much you're representing besides a set. If it's a thinking player or a station you're probably getting a call here.

[griffey24]

If it's a thinking player or a station you're probably getting a call here.

Yah pretty much this. You should be getting snapped here by a good player or bad player.

If he's some meh non-thinking "uhoh he has a king" kind of player, this will probably work.

I wouldn't get in the habit of repping nothing though.. flatting flop and then betting turn/river line is bs a lot I feel... especially with the sizing you used. It's not like you're potting 9T on the river here or something. At least use a believable size...

[minSim]

What hands did you want to fold?

What hands did you want to fold?

pp below 9 ldo

[griffey24]

The second you bet 38 I'm snapping you off here.

If you bet smaller, like 26ish it's a more believable size, it widens your value range to more than just 35, 222, 444, and gives you a better price on your bluff.

[mixchange]

Board is so dry he is going to be correctly check-calling for value here, especially vs. someone like you who is floating and bluffing frequently

[bigspenda73]

don't like the bet size, bigger or smaller imo