Another shoving dilemma

[Raoni_Poker]

Hi all,

This is from a 1,20 SG (10 max) at CD poker. In those games we often get to high levels of blinds with 5 players (3 prized places). In these games blinds increase each 7 minutes, which for me is great because games last at most 1 hour and it isnt quite like a turbo lottery. However, since the bubble play lasts more, you have to stand up and shove with position. The problem is, the better you position, the wider is your opponents calling range...thats what happened here.

To be honest, I rather to shove UTG with a better than average holding (A7s+, ATo+, 66+, KJs+, KQo) than make obvious all in stealings from the SB with ATC (despite what the numbers say). In fact, I love to play against those players that overshove with position. Its so easy to eliminate them.

In this situation, I had to do that...the blinds were very high. I wonder if this is a good shove from the button, since the BB had attractive odds to call.

No-Limit Hold'em, $600.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($1830)
SB ($2470)
BB ($2030)
UTG ($5390)
MP ($3280)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 6
2 folds, Hero bets $1830 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls $1230

Flop: ($3960) 3, 4, 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($3960) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($3960) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3960

[Monty3038]

Ok, I'll admit, I'm a more casual SNG player, but since when did K6s become enough to shove on, even in position? Especially at this level, you are looking to make the money, not steal with ATC when the blinds are so high...

But I'll leave it up to the pros to decide... I just think you are looking for a better spot that K6s when your M is so low. You will only get called by better hands...

And if you are going to start stealing, you should be doing it earlier on at lower blind levels... IMO...

[Raoni_Poker]

Before that hand I had a cold run of cards, so...I should pick a spot to steal, otherwise I would get blinded out. When the blinds are that high the chip count oscilates a lot...thats why I was the short stack in this spot.
After stealing the blinds with A9o from the CO I spent 9 hands folding (bad cards and shoves before me). Then I got K6s on the button.

[GatorJH]

I did some quick calcs in SNGWIZ and this is a fold unless the SB's range is 30% or tighter and the BB's range is 37% or tighter.

Based on your read that their calling range is fairly wide this is a fold.

[Monty3038]

Yes, that is the trouble with Turbo's, and SNG's near the bubble... if the blind levels are high, you get put in bad spots. That is why it is important to steal after about level 4 in hopes of building enough of a stack that when this situation rolls around, you aren't so short... but you knew that

In this case though, I'm probably blinding out, or hoping for a better hand in the next two hands. I don't think I can see K6s being a shove for me... but I'm a bit conservative.

[linaker]

Based on your read that their calling range is fairly wide this is a fold.

He did not quite say this - he said that the blinds calling range for button raises was wider and the BB had good odds to call a shove. The SB is getting 1.8 -1 and the BB 2.2 - 1. Those are good odds, but do not make calling complulsory. The SB and BB are also the next two shortest stacks, so if either of them call and lose they are in big trouble.

Heads up to showdown, K6s is not a terrible hand. If the SB and BB don't have a pair, Ace or higher King, K6s is going to be the better side of a coin flip, if either one of the SB or BB calls. The chance of getting a better hand in the next two hands is 50 - 50 (and that could be K8o) and in those cases the bigger stacks, who can call and survive, will be in the BB, getting 2.2 - 1 on a call.

If you don't shove in the next two hands, then you are in the BB and you either have to shove there or hope to get a walk. If neither of those happens, then any shove will just get you back more or less to where you are now.

You don't have many choices, but I think shoving K6s is the least worst.

[Raoni_Poker]

I could not estimate a calling range for the BB and SB. Before this hand I shoved 4 times with better than average hands and nobody called. The players were rather careful in calling shoves at that point but I think my uncalled shoves and villain's position (BB) might have influenced his decision. I'll post the results later.

I ran some ICM calculations and here is my shoving range for this situation:
33.6% (22+ Ax+ K3s+ K7o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s) - K6s is within that range, but to be honest, I think this criterion adopted here over values suited cards.

BB calling range when Button shoves is 62.6% (22+ Qx+ J2s+ J5o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 86s+ 76s) probably due to the attractive odds, but I would not call this wide if I were him.

SB calling range would be 22%.

[TLR]

With M of 3 I dont think there is anything wrong with shoving K6s

[Qminator]

With M of 3 I dont think there is anything wrong with shoving K6s

I was thinking the same..hero will be blinded out soon.