TPGK vs ??

BU is 14/12/3 over 700, 11% call open on BU, folded to 5/6 cbets so far and raised the other. High flop aggression frequency but low turn/river (small sample so maybe meaningless)

HJ is 26/4/2 over 70

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($18.50)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($58.80)
Hero (CO) ($122.60)
Button ($119.40)
SB ($32.80)
BB ($113.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, J
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, Hero bets $5, Button calls $5, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4

Flop: ($16.50) 4, J, 7 (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $10, Button calls $10, 1 fold

Turn: ($36.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button calls $20

River: ($76.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $84.40 (All-In)


OK, what? There can't be many draws in his range, he doesn't have air often on the flop because there's a station left to act, TT-88 don't make sense to turn into a bluff, we don't have nearly enough history for him to be merging his ranges with AJ-KK (plus he probably 3bets qq-kk), and he ought to have raised a set on the flop or the turn.

The pot size shove after I make 2 small bets and a check looks like he thinks I'm weak and will fold or he's levelling me.

Really, what can he have here? It looks like either a poorly played flopped set, AA, or AcTc etc.

Call or Fold? Also, thoughts on betsizes.

I'd size my bets bigger because if you had a set or an overpair you'd be concerned about the flush draw
maybe flop can be OK, but I'd bet more on the turn for sure because I generally plan my bet sizes on the turn and river to be close to the same

I think c/c the turn could be OK if he's one to float because our hand is really strong and we're not worried about giving a free card
that said I have no fucking clue

o hey wat about Ac3c

edit: nm he almost never has that preflop

[ZwiFT]

If you bet abit more on turn this might have been a snap call =)

i disagree, if he'd been making a more normal sized river shove I'd be more inclined to put AJ-KK in his range, and also he'd be shoving into someone who looks a liiiitle bit stronger than I do now, so I'd give him a little more credit.

[Deanglow]

Just one of those hands you have to rely on feel/timing. A lot of different player types I'd call or fold against

[Beck]

I can't put him on a hand, especially with the overbet on the river. Ac3c is the only hand that he plays like this and beats you, but that hand is unlikely with an 14%Vpip. The other hand he might have is QQ and AA, but that again would be very poorly played on his part.
TT, maybe but then why call the turn bet so again unlikely
JQ, and JT would play it just like this and you have them. I say call.

-beck

[texa8]

i dont see why he cant have AJ here calling pre with position.

with you're aggression pre flop his flat calling here is keeping the pot small, and when the draw fails to complete he makes a bluffy looking shove cause it may make u call with a worse hand??

also, theres no way we can b/f this river is there.. checking is always correct?

[ZwiFT]

i disagree, if he'd been making a more normal sized river shove I'd be more inclined to put AJ-KK in his range, and also he'd be shoving into someone who looks a liiiitle bit stronger than I do now, so I'd give him a little more credit.

if you bet 26 on the turn the pot on the river will still be good enough for him to think he got fold equity, beside you get better odds on calling. I still snapcall here almost 100% vs this villain, ofc depends on timing and his prev tendens