Sunday 1/4 Mill hand - how bad is this?

[kevster]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10+$1 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t134318)
UTG+1 (t19445)
MP1 (t53984)
MP2 (t58520)
Hero (MP3) (t45313)
CO (t64244)
Button (t35906)
SB (t10205)
BB (t21338)

Hero's M: 7.55

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, K
4 folds, Hero bets t7500, 1 fold, Button calls t7500, 2 folds

Flop: (t21000) A, K, A (2 players)
Hero bets t7500, Button raises to t15000, Hero raises to t37563 (All-In)

[shoneec]

Hmm, I'd put him on either Ax suited(unlikely but is a possibility), KT, KQ or QQ, TT or some flush draw(unlikely but is a possibility also).

I'd shove it on the flop instantly, but your play is acceptable too.

[revolvingiris]

Pretty bad if hero thinks BTN can have an A here. I dont think QQ- is paying you off here.

[revolvingiris]

I'd shove it on the flop instantly, but your play is acceptable too.

You prob go broke here a lot IMO

[fjuanl]

if your willing to stack off with any hand in this spot I prefer CRAI that way you allow him to bluff.

[tbills81]

He was probably betting you didn't have an Ace. I agree with fjuanl here.

[kevster]

My thoughts may have been skewed as I'd had a couple of drinks but my thinking was that, whilst an Ace is possibe, it isn't that likely and there's plenty of stuff I beat that the villain could show up with here.

In these donkfests, you have to pick your spots and go for it. With my chips getting low (although not desperate) I felt that this was probably one of those spots.

I'm not certain in the cold light of day, hence the post.

Thoughts?

[linaker]

Its true that the two Aces on the board make it less likely he has an Ace and he could have called with all kinds of hands on the button. But the chance he had an Ace, King or both increased a lot when he put just over half his remaining stack into the pot after the AAK flop. With 2/3 of his chips in the pot, it does not look like he is folding, and if he had a hand you could beat, I think he would have been more likely to have shoved all his chips in.

Unless you have a read on him, this does not look like a good spot to me.

[drmcboy]

stack sizes make this a weird spot, I don't think I would fold much but not sure what line to take. I doubt he'll bluff at this board much so checking probably just gives a free card to hands that would turbo fold to a bet.

I would only raise 2.5x to start with.

[revolvingiris]

stack sizes make this a weird spot, I don't think I would fold much but not sure what line to take. I doubt he'll bluff at this board much so checking probably just gives a free card to hands that would turbo fold to a bet.

I would only raise 2.5x to start with.

This^^^

If I was in your spot: I would have 2.5x pf and made just a little over 1/2 PSB on flop and fold to any raise. Sometimes we fold the better hand and thats ok.

The fact that there are two As on board does mean he is less likely to have one but that doesnt mean he doesnt. Not to mention I would feel pretty upset if villain called my 3bet shove with KQo.

Your 3bet isnt terrible only if you know BTN raises light. If you dont have this read, then this is a fold for me.

[drmcboy]

I think if you want to fold you just check/fold

problem with bet folding the flop is I think esp in a tourney like this (but really most small/mid tourneys) everyone assumes you would check an ace. You would be getting a huge price coming back so making the occasional fold to a worse hand is fairly terrible. I also very much doubt he'll raise an ace although maybe he's a paranoid type.

No worries about KQ because if it calls then so will other Kx hands. Ifhe's good enough to fold KT but not KQ then good luck to him. He's already called off almost 1/4 of his stack so I doubt it.

[revolvingiris]

I think if you want to fold you just check/fold

problem with bet folding the flop is I think esp in a tourney like this (but really most small/mid tourneys) everyone assumes you would check an ace. You would be getting a huge price coming back so making the occasional fold to a worse hand is fairly terrible. I also very much doubt he'll raise an ace although maybe he's a paranoid type.

No worries about KQ because if it calls then so will other Kx hands. Ifhe's good enough to fold KT but not KQ then good luck to him. He's already called off almost 1/4 of his stack so I doubt it.

The reason I say bet/fold is because we can still get flat called by hands way worse or a turbo fold like you said which is also good. If we check as you said, other villains tend to put us on a slowplayed A and can fold their TT when we turn barrel so we may lose value.

I think if we out right check the flop, then we have to call almost any bet from BTN and re-evaluate turn. Thats why I suggested 1/2 psb as almost a blocking bet. If we get flat called, then we can check the turn and see how villain plays. I think outright check folding is pretty nitty as BTN can have a TON of hands.

However, the fact that he minraised 1/2 of his stack tells me his hand is fairly good. I dont think anything other than Ax has this line and I especially think this if he is aware of our stack size at all (which I think he is because his minraise looks like a value bet).

[drmcboy]

you're making my point along with yours - if betting the flop makes it look less like we have an ace, why would we then bet fold? that's what makes it such a tough spot

If we get flat called, then we can check the turn and see how villain plays

talk more about this because it sounds easy but it's really hard. Remember that if we bet half pot, V has ~16k left on turn and the pot will have 42k so we're getting about 4/1 to call a shove. With a range of A7o, A7s, QJhh and KTs - we're only a 4/1 dog. I don't think we can be that sure. So if you want to give up, it has to be without putting more chips in.

the rest is really just a level argument with no answer. If a minraise here looks exactly like he has an ace it's a terrible play unless he doesn't have one. does a level 0 thinker like TT or K9 here? I dunno.

It's also worth nothing here that shoving is +EV and is maybe the better play so we avoid these spots.

[baudib]

This is a really tough spot. It would be 100% easier if we have JJ or AK on a AA3 board. As noted, our stack sizes make it awkward. We have a good hand that's unlikely to get any value from worse hands (except like QhJh) unless we let them bluff at it.

I think a flop c/c is a better play here than b/f or b/rr and if villain wants to fire twice at this board I think we can give up on the turn because he would pretty much always expect us to check trip aces on the flop. Barring that I think c-r or check/bf turn is probably the way to go.

[kevster]

Many thanks for the replies guys (especially drmc). Very useful.

I have little problem going broke here but I definitely played it less than optimal.

Question. Is 2.5x standard when the blinds get to nosebleed then? I do this in SNGs but not often in MTTs.

[Sprayed]

Your bet size depends on your table. But, normally 2.5x is best when antes kick in. Concerning your HH, I don't think that you would be losing much value if you just open folded preflop. I agree with the doctor that maybe a shove would make this easier. When under 10M, shoving is profitable.

[revolvingiris]

you're making my point along with yours - if betting the flop makes it look less like we have an ace, why would we then bet fold? that's what makes it such a tough spot

If we get flat called, then we can check the turn and see how villain plays

talk more about this because it sounds easy but it's really hard. Remember that if we bet half pot, V has ~16k left on turn and the pot will have 42k so we're getting about 4/1 to call a shove. With a range of A7o, A7s, QJhh and KTs - we're only a 4/1 dog. I don't think we can be that sure. So if you want to give up, it has to be without putting more chips in.

the rest is really just a level argument with no answer. If a minraise here looks exactly like he has an ace it's a terrible play unless he doesn't have one. does a level 0 thinker like TT or K9 here? I dunno.

It's also worth nothing here that shoving is +EV and is maybe the better play so we avoid these spots.

Keep in mind when I was saying bet half pot etc...I was talking in context of betting 2.5x pf. If we would have done that, the pot would only have been 17500 and a 1/2 psb would only be for 8k-ish on the flop. We could easily check behind on the turn and fold to a huge river barrel as our stack would still be fine to find a better spot:

Board: Ah Kh As

Hand 0: 45.242% { KJo }
Hand 1: 54.758% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

The really ticky part to this hand is we have no idea if villain is loose or tight as it deff effects our math on his range. As you see above, with this type of range you have to go with KJ. However, if villain is pretty speculative:

Board: Ah Kh As

Hand 0: 28.839% { KJo }
Hand 1: 71.161% { 77+, A2s+, KTs+, A2o+, KTo+ }

Keep in mind I am not saying either of these ranges are what BTN has. I am just showing how his range effects if this is a call or not.

Shoving here can be profitable but it can also be a huge mistake. Which is why I would have stabbed the pot once and if villain seemed interested at all I would drop the hand.

Our goal is to survive in a tourney and this seems like one of those spots where it sucks to bleed some chips but we can for sure get away from it.

FWIW I personally think this is more like villains range:
Board: Ah Kh As

Hand 0: 21.468% { KJo }
Hand 1: 78.532% { QQ+, AJs+, AJo+ }

The reason I think this is because I doubt he is playing too much trash from this position with his type of stack. I think he is trying to make you commit and didnt want to have you fold pf.

[drmcboy]

if shoving is profitable it's never a mistake, it just may not be optimal. If you mean it's a mistake because sometimes the BB has AA then you don't understand what we mean when we say shoving is profitable. The BB having AA is factored in.

TBH your QQ+ AJ+ range is so bizarre it's hard to talk rationally about it. If your generic read of an unknown in the sunday fish fry is that they often slow play huge hands and yet also never play other hands badly I can't argue with you, I'll just tell you that has not been my experience in the 500 or so $10 and under tournies I have played and that you're probably missing tons of value bets.

Even saying all that, it's still pretty close to a call with your range once we bet the flop. I understand you're only putting him on that range after the min raise, but if you have to pay for the information that you're beat by folding with a good price you need to find a better line.

I assume given your posts in this thread that were you in Vs shoes and if you felt your opponent was a capable player - that is, about as good as you are - you would raise with ATC you would have here? If you can get folds fold KJ or worse you'll show a huge profit even if you never win the hand from there.

our stack would still be fine to find a better spot:

so at what stack size would this not be true?

[baudib]

Iris I think you have to adjust your mindset a bit. Your goal is not to survive. We are not anywhere near good enough shape to really wait for better spots.

You could make an argument that the best play here is to announce in the chat that you have KJo and then shove all-in, hoping to entice a call from a pair or Ax. Because taking a 40% shot to go from 45,000 chips to 95,000 is about as good a result as we can hope for.

[revolvingiris]

if shoving is profitable it's never a mistake, it just may not be optimal.

I am saying shoving isnt always profitable from here, it depends on villains range. Which you dont know if you just open shove. You cant just generically say the shove is +EV because its completly player dependent.

TBH your QQ+ AJ+ range is so bizarre it's hard to talk rationally about it

This is the range I came to after the op minraise on flop. The reasoning is I doubt villain is calling super light pf with his stack size. I think villain is bad, which is why the AJ CC is included in his range. I think anything under QQ he would shove or fold and everything else would be a fold, minus the big Ax.

If your generic read of an unknown in the sunday fish fry is that they often slow play huge hands and yet also never play other hands badly I can't argue with you, I'll just tell you that has not been my experience in the 500 or so $10 and under tournies I have played and that you're probably missing tons of value bets.

No, I tried to base my read on his stack size and betting pattern. Villain obv played his hand badly, other wise he would have just shoved over pf. What I was trying to do was think about what hands would villain likely call here with his current stack.

There is his pf fold range, call range, 3bet range, or a shove (I included 3bet range because if villain is bad enough to cc here. I think he is also bad enough to 3bet. All of these are for preflop villain ranges:

Fold range: KQ or less because of stack size
3bet range: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ
Shove range: AA - 66 (could be all pairs if he is semi crazy), AJ+
CC range: AA-66, AK, AQ, AJ

Notice a lot of these hands share similar range types for villains pf action. Thats ok being we dont know exactly what he has. Which is why I wanted to stab the pot so we could narrow it down based on his reaction. Which out of these hands is he likely to have given his line? IMO AA-QQ, AK-AJ as anything lower than QQ would shove pf based on stack and a minraise with Ax on flop makes sense to keep the action alive.

Even saying all that, it's still pretty close to a call with your range once we bet the flop. I understand you're only putting him on that range after the min raise, but if you have to pay for the information that you're beat by folding with a good price you need to find a better line.

I assume given your posts in this thread that were you in Vs shoes and if you felt your opponent was a capable player - that is, about as good as you are - you would raise with ATC you would have here? If you can get folds fold KJ or worse you'll show a huge profit even if you never win the hand from there.

We dont have a better line given we didnt just fold pf due to our weird stack and bet size. It is a close call but that still doesnt mean we cant fold. Just because we made a mistake pf doesnt mean we cant get out of a hand even if it is for a good price.

But being villain CC pf with his stack size I do not think he is a good opponent. Which makes me think he is less likely to be betting air or worse than us here.

As for our stack after the fold. Prob anything less than our 10x we are left with in this specific situation. I guess that boils down to how good your short stack play is/ comfort zone.

Iris I think you have to adjust your mindset a bit. Your goal is not to survive. We are not anywhere near good enough shape to really wait for better spots.

Should we gamble in a spot where we dont even know what type of shape we are in now and never have a shot at chips in the future? Yes our goal is to gain as many chips as we can to get a shot at the real money.

If hero shoves here and loses, his stack is 10k or 4BB vs heros fold with 30k left or 10BB. Hero would have to win 2.5 double ups @ a 10k stack vs his 1 double up @ 30k to get to the 60k mark or 20BB once the level of the tourney increases.

Remember were only a 55%-45% @ best guess. As shown above we can be in a way worse shape than this. I think we can find a better push fold situation that is even more +EV long term.

Edit: Keep in mind we have to have a 42% chance against villains range to make this play after his minraise +EV.

[drmcboy]

I think we can find a better push fold situation that is even more +EV long term.

If hero shoves here and loses, his stack is 10k or 4BB vs heros fold with 30k left or 10BB. Hero would have to win 2.5 double ups @ a 10k stack vs his 1 double up @ 30k to get to the 60k mark or 20BB once the level of the tourney increases.

The problem with "Our stack is still X big" is that you can use that to make any play you want. It's a bad mindset because you cannot quantify it. Push every edge you can. Again, remember that equity doesn't vanish, someone else gets it.

How do you incorporate this usefully into your play? you're just picking an arbitrary number. What if our stack was 27k after we folded? 25.3k?

I am saying shoving isnt always profitable from here, it depends on villains range. Which you dont know if you just open shove. You cant just generically say the shove is +EV because its completly player dependent.

Shoving is +EV if people are calling correctly or too tight. This is math, not opinion. Given the tight range you give this player pre flop it's +EV for sure. In general standard online low/mid (and most high too) BI players will almost never call wide enough later in tourneys. In this tourney it's super true because a lot of people got in for 100 FPPs and cashing doubles their BR.

I would strongly recommend you get a chart and use it to make your shove fold decisions. I like the ones in Kill Everyone but you can find them lots of places. You're probably missing a lot of shove spots.

Edit: Keep in mind we have to have a 42% chance against villains range to make this play after his minraise +EV.

keep the discussion on your line or the HH posted, jumping back and fourth is confusing.

a minraise with Ax on flop makes sense to keep the action alive.

a cold call keeps the action alive. His line is making you fold KJ!

Remember were only a 55%-45% @ best guess.

This has in no way been established, and I don't even know what best guess means in this context. My 'best guess' is he raises an ace on the flop < 5% of the time so we sure should not fold.

[revolvingiris]

The problem with "Our stack is still X big" is that you can use that to make any play you want. It's a bad mindset because you cannot quantify it. Push every edge you can. Again, remember that equity doesn't vanish, someone else gets it.

My point was we dont know if we have an edge or not. How can you formulate your equity/EV if you have no idea what villains range is? I gave villain a possible 3 different ranges and there are many more. My point was out of those 3, we are only beating one of them.

Shoving is +EV if people are calling correctly or too tight. This is math, not opinion. Given the tight range you give this player pre flop it's +EV for sure. In general standard online low/mid (and most high too) BI players will almost never call wide enough later in tourneys. In this tourney it's super true because a lot of people got in for 100 FPPs and cashing doubles their BR.

Shoving pre may be +EV and against 3 random hands this is true. But op didnt do that and now we are trying to figure out his equity/EV on flop. Equity as you said doesnt vanish, it goes somewhere else. Your equity can completly change from pf to flop. Just because it was +EV on one street doesnt mean its +EV on another street.

I would strongly recommend you get a chart and use it to make your shove fold decisions. I like the ones in Kill Everyone but you can find them lots of places. You're probably missing a lot of shove spots.

This is probably true but the problem with recommending a generic push/fold chart is that your push fold range changes based on opponents still to act calling range. If you know of a better way to find out hand equity on a pf push other than setting the remaining left to act players to random on pokerstove Im all ears.

Ill keep the discussion on the HH posted as my line is just how I would play minus reads/stats.

a cold call keeps the action alive. His line is making you fold KJ!

His line made hero shove. Hypothetically, I was saying with my line. I dont think villain would be as likely to minraise.

This has in no way been established, and I don't even know what best guess means in this context. My 'best guess' is he raises an ace on the flop < 5% of the time so we sure should not fold.

What range do you put villain on after his minraise? I was just going by the best of the three options I posted before. I called it a "best guess" because we have no reads or stats on villain.

I was actually wrong when I said we have to be greater than 47% on the flop. Per op, its 18% and hero can never fold here after minraise. Huge change I know but I posted this at like 4am

[baudib]

AJ+, QQ+ is laughably tight. I mean you're talking about a button call in a Sunday donkfest, he could have almost anything. What is almost certain is that he's never going to believe you have an A after cbetting this flop. As noted, if we're going to fold to a minraise button should profitably raise any two cards.

[drmcboy]

The shoving pre math is based on random hands combined with the optimal strategy the players should use when calling. This is quantifiable. If they call optimally, shoving is +EV. It's also +EV if they call too tight. Again, do some reading. At some point you have to make some assumptions about calling ranges or you would never shove pre.


The only relation pre flop and flop have is that now that we see how gross this spot is, we should strongly consider taking the play that is +EV for sure next time.

When you say "find a better spot" you are implying this spot is +EV, but that you'll find better (more +EV) spots later. If you determine it is +EV to fold here then you would fold.

FWIW I would expect him to flip over a lot of Kxs, less FDs, a few aces and a few PPs/air.

Your equity can completly change from pf to flop. Just because it was +EV on one street doesnt mean its +EV on another street.

If you can't keep things civil you should stop posting until you cool off. If these are not insults but rather you think I'm so bad at poker I don't understand these two sentences I don't know why you would reply to anything I post. This is a good thread, and I hope I can continue to disagree with you without it being personal.

[revolvingiris]

If you can't keep things civil you should stop posting until you cool off. If these are not insults but rather you think I'm so bad at poker I don't understand these two sentences I don't know why you would reply to anything I post. This is a good thread, and I hope I can continue to disagree with you without it being personal.

Please do not take what I am saying as personal shots. I know you are FAR more experienced than I am at every form of poker...I have a problem with over explaining things sometimes for my own benifit and I am in no way trying to insult your intelligence.

I dont have time to respond to the thread at this moment but its very important to note I am in no way angry or trying to be personal.

[revolvingiris]

AJ+, QQ+ is laughably tight. I mean you're talking about a button call in a Sunday donkfest, he could have almost anything. What is almost certain is that he's never going to believe you have an A after cbetting this flop. As noted, if we're going to fold to a minraise button should profitably raise any two cards.

Which button could prob do reguardless. It could be laughably tight but one leak I have been focusing on lately is not giving opponents enough credit. Villain could be a typical donk but that isnt enough justification in my head to go broke here.

The shoving pre math is based on random hands combined with the optimal strategy the players should use when calling. This is quantifiable. If they call optimally, shoving is +EV. It's also +EV if they call too tight. Again, do some reading. At some point you have to make some assumptions about calling ranges or you would never shove pre.

I stole this from Bond18 :

Let’s look at specific instances where I think good/thinking players are giving too much to non thinking players or random players.

1. Paying off small river value bets: You get this all the time, you find yourself at the river with a medium strength hand that you’re fairly sure isn’t good. However, your opponent fires out a bet in the area of 30-50% pot. You look at his bet, figure your medium strength hand only needs to be good around 1 in 4 times or something, and call down. I know it’s gross but trust me, stop paying off these bets until you see someone bluff with them. Nobody bets this stupid little size as a bluff.

Doesnt fit exactly but you get what I am saying.

Then from Sklansky's TPFAP per your recommendation:

"It may seem giving up positive EV situations can never be right. However, even from a purely mathematical stand point you sometimes should. Say today we are given a coin flip at $120-$100, but say tomorrow we are offered $200-$100. Should we take the coin flip today and risk going broke, effectivly loosing out much higher +EV situation tomorrow? The first bet yeilds a profit of $35 +EV, while waiting till tomorrow yeilds a profit of $50 +EV. So you can see that it can be mathematically correct to pass up a good bet if losing that bet can keep you from making an even better bet later on".

I think both of these best describe what it is I am trying to communicate with this HH.

[baudib]

Both of those are horrible advice.

In the first example you have to consider the action on previous streets and the relation of the pot to your stack.

For instance, he blinds are 50/100 and there is a raise in front of you for $250. You have 5,000 chips and KJs and you call. The button calls with 3,000 chips and both blinds call. The flop is J82 with two spades. The PFR raiser checks and you bet 600. The button calls and everyone folds.

The turn is the Ad and you both check. The River is Qh and you check, the button bets $850. Are you folding?

The Sklansky example is just bad advice. TPFAP was written in its first edition when the Main Event was a much smaller tournament dominated by the top players in the world. Moreoever it's not applicable to any real-world scenarios you're likely to run into. How often do you know you have $2-$1 odds? You don't get QQ+/AK very often. Passing up +EV spots is -EV period. Don't ever pass up $120-$100 odds.

[fjuanl]

After taking a closer look at the stacks sizes behind you, I think shoving pre is by far your best option in most cases.

a) the stacks that can defend your raise have position on you

b) 3 stacks are 15BBs or less (two with <10bbs), which makes the shove more +EV


If both the stacks that could defend your raise were in the blinds, I definetly see the merit in raising vs shoving

[revolvingiris]

Both of those are horrible advice.

Well Im screwed then because idk who to go to for better :-S...And the TPFAP that I have is the new 2007 edition.

[baudib]

Sklansky is generally writing that book for guys who are among the best players in the field, he says this several times in the book. And he is generally talking about passing up small edges when the blinds are extremely small compared to your stack -- like the first day of the WSOP when everyone has 200-500 BBs. We're never usually that deep and you and I certainly don't have a big enough edge to pass up those edges.

[revolvingiris]

Sklansky is generally writing that book for guys who are among the best players in the field, he says this several times in the book. And he is generally talking about passing up small edges when the blinds are extremely small compared to your stack -- like the first day of the WSOP when everyone has 200-500 BBs. We're never usually that deep and you and I certainly don't have a big enough edge to pass up those edges.

Well the example I gave above was right out of his book and that had nothing to do with WSOP.

But we probably shouldnt deviate too far from op HH as I dont want to hijack this thread into whether or not we should pay attention to Sklansky.

I think fjuanl and drmcboy nailed it on the head with just pushing pf. 18bb is just too weird to play in spots like this.

[drmcboy]

I did not say you should never pass up an edge.

if you could quantify the next edge you'll get, life sure would be easier. But we can't. That doesn't mean it isn't useful to think about that sklansky blurb. It's an oversimplification to illustrate a point. The example he gives is AK vs 44 with little overlay. I do not believe the HH posted applies.

It's also worth noting that while his math is of course correct, it ignores the fact that when we win the 120/100 gamble and double up and then win the 200/100, we are still in the tourney with a ton of chips and a chance to make even more profitable bets with our now ginormous stack. that stuff is harder to quantify but it's non zero.


I did say shoving pre is +ev, and therefore you should not fold pre.

I did also say that if you make a HPS bet or play the hand as posted in OP, and then fold to a shove, you are passing up too big an edge.


the problem with the Bond18 quote is that I am willing to bet he would agree people also make these small bets with draws and to 'see where they are at' with hands like 66 in the OP board. That's why he specifies we're on the river.

[revolvingiris]

It's also worth noting that while his math is of course correct, it ignores the fact that when we win the 120/100 gamble and double up and then win the 200/100, we are still in the tourney with a ton of chips and a chance to make even more profitable bets with our now ginormous stack. that stuff is harder to quantify but it's non zero.

But there is also the reverse to that which you obv know that when we lose the 120/100 we are out of options. Maybe the direct answer to this question determines your aggression factor?

the problem with the Bond18 quote is that I am willing to bet he would agree people also make these small bets with draws and to 'see where they are at' with hands like 66 in the OP board. That's why he specifies we're on the river.

Here is another HH to better illustrate why I think OP's villain is not weak:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t950)
CO (t2915)
Button (t5035)
SB (t4110)
Hero (BB) (t2910)
UTG (t940)
UTG+1 (t2709)
MP1 (t6345)

Hero's M: 64.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
2 folds, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, Button calls t30, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: (t105) 7, 7, A (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets t60, Hero raises to t240, MP1 calls t240, 1 fold

Turn: (t645) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t550, MP1 raises to t1100, Hero raises to t2640 (All-In), MP1 calls t1540

River: (t5925) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t5925

Results:
Hero had A, J (two pair, Aces and sevens).
MP1 had 7, K (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: MP1 won t5925


Dont question what I was doing here with AJo, I had no idea what my hole cards were.

But this illustrates the way a lot of micro limit players think. This particular villain had a history of minraising when strong (so instead of folding I move in lol) and there are a ton of players who think like this in the $10 lottery. I also know that in my HH, my villain would have called up to 5x with his pf limp.

Obv OP's villain would have to have this history but it is completly plausable.

[kardmania]

The big intangible and the real determinator in big money games is how are you running. Swagger or Defensive posture.

[drmcboy]

I have no idea what any of this has to do with the Bond 18 quote since again none of this action happens on the river. Or the OP.

AAhKh in a HU raised pot plays a lot different than 77Ar in a limped 3 way pot.

even ignoring that you have no idea if this player would do the same with a FD or SD, which is not even possible in this HH (or with a worse A).

I sure hope if I had posted a HH where I stacked K9 on this same board with KQ would not change your thinking. This did not change mine.

[revolvingiris]

I have no idea what any of this has to do with the Bond 18 quote since again none of this action happens on the river. Or the OP.

I was showing how typical it was for a low limit player to minraise for value. It happens more than a lot of people think.

All I was showing with the bond quote was "nobody bets this stupid little size as a bluff". The action doesnt have to be on the river for someone to throw out a value bet.

[baudib]

Iris:

The hand you posted is a paired board in a limped pot with basically no draws. And he keeps betting small/minraising you after you've raised him and shown strength on the flop and the turn. Piecing this hand together, I'd be surprised if you had more than 2 outs.

That has nothing to do with calling a river bet for 1/3-1/2 pot after he's shown weakness on the flop and/or turn. Reads, board texture, position, hand strength and pot odds should dictate your decision.

I could show you thousands of hands where some middle pair is good on a board of J T 3 4 K but that doesn't prove anything either.

[revolvingiris]

Iris:

The hand you posted is a paired board in a limped pot with basically no draws. And he keeps betting small/minraising you after you've raised him and shown strength on the flop and the turn. Piecing this hand together, I'd be surprised if you had more than 2 outs.

Obv you didnt read my whole post because I didnt care how many outs I had...

I was showing that yes, donks do minraise for value and it happens a lot in smaller buy in tourneys. Which the $10 is a smaller buy in tourney.

That has nothing to do with calling a river bet for 1/3-1/2 pot after he's shown weakness on the flop and/or turn. Reads, board texture, position, hand strength and pot odds should dictate your decision.

Your right, your exact statement has nothing to do with the OP HH either as ALL action took place on flop. So I'm not really sure where this information is relevent?

I could show you thousands of hands where some middle pair is good on a board of J T 3 4 K but that doesn't prove anything either.

So if it has nothing to do with anything why say it?

My HH, I stated that just like OP HH my villain would have called up to a 5x pf bet with his oop limp. Not to mention he is on the BTN like in the original HH AND he minraised me on the flop like in OP.

I never once said they were the exact same situation or because this hand happened every villain minraises for value. I was just showing an example of where someone minraises for value and thought it was close enough to the OP that it could widen the conversation a bit.

I also believe minraising for value happens much more in micros/smallerish buy ins then maybe drmcboy is used to because he plays larger buy ins. And I say for value but many of them dont know what they are doing is for value. "OH! The rayzz BUTTON!!!!". I understand drmc has played enough of all limits to be able to form a very respectable opinion for this. I just didnt know how aware he was of how much minraising goes on lately.

I came to this conclusion because my roomate is a poker player who plays much higher buyins than I and he mentioned how weird it was how often people minraised for value. Even though again it isnt for value. They just dont know proper betting amounts.

[kevster]

Well this thread sure exploded

FWIW, I think some people are missing the fact the I know nothing about the villain. More importantly, I think the situation relates as much to my position in the tournament as anything else.

[revolvingiris]

I think the situation relates as much to my position in the tournament as anything else.

In the entire tourney or just in this hand?

I'm curious to know what villain did. Although, I would hate for things to then turn into "I WAS RIGHT, YOUR WRONG" type of thing.

Part of me kind of hopes both you, drmc, and baudib are correct. Because then I truely am losing out on tons of oppertunities for value and can address that issue.

Either way thanks for posting the HH!

[kevster]

I think the situation relates as much to my position in the tournament as anything else.

In the entire tourney or just in this hand?

The entire tourney, e.g. my stack / expectations / need to double up

I'm curious to know what villain did. Although, I would hate for things to then turn into "I WAS RIGHT, YOUR WRONG" type of thing.

Part of me kind of hopes both you, drmc, and baudib are correct. Because then I truely am losing out on tons of oppertunities for value and can address that issue.

Either way thanks for posting the HH!

Villain called and flipped an A but that doesn't justify any argument because it's just one outcome. If this hand was replayed a ton of times I'm pretty sure that my getting the money in (pre or post flop) is +EV. I wa more interested in how I played it, which i accept wasn't optimal.

[drmcboy]

i think there is a non zero chance your line, weird as it is, is optimal. it's a tough spot, good thread

[revolvingiris]

Villain called and flipped an A but that doesn't justify any argument because it's just one outcome. If this hand was replayed a ton of times I'm pretty sure that my getting the money in (pre or post flop) is +EV. I wa more interested in how I played it, which i accept wasn't optimal.

For sure, I was just curious about what happened with the hand.

i think there is a non zero chance your line, weird as it is, is optimal. it's a tough spot, good thread

+1

Ive seen you mention the "non zero chance'' thing before. I dont quite understand what that means. Can you explain to a less knowlageable being what this means