Making river decisions

[sinister1]

The main reason I am making this post is not just for this hand specifically but because I want to make sure I am analyzing river decisions correctly in general so please point out any faulty logic.

Early on no reads on villain. Plan was to shove river, but ugly card came.

Full Tilt Poker Game #11821531398: Early Double - A (88523275), Table 19 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:38:56 ET - 2009/04/22
Seat 1: silent_bluff (505)
Seat 2: easy4you (1,715)
Seat 3: supervish (4,323)
Seat 5: Hero (3,200)
Seat 6: mrsexy21 (1,985)
Seat 7: whythecall (4,725)
Seat 8: g3tmoney12 (902)
Seat 9: sixpack83 (3,415)
g3tmoney12 posts the small blind of 25
sixpack83 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [2c 2s]
silent_bluff folds
easy4you folds
supervish calls 50
Hero raises to 200
mrsexy21 folds
whythecall folds
g3tmoney12 folds
sixpack83 calls 150
supervish calls 150
*** FLOP *** [Jc 2h 7d]
sixpack83 checks
supervish checks
Hero bets 350
sixpack83 folds
supervish calls 350
*** TURN *** [Jc 2h 7d] [8s]
supervish checks
Hero bets 800
supervish calls 800
*** RIVER *** [Jc 2h 7d 8s] [Th]
supervish checks
Hero (1,850 behind)??

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 2c2s }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { TT-77, J7s+, J7o+ }

For the sake of argument, lets say the above range assessment is correct and we are dead 50/50 on the river. Do we auto get it in because of the dead money in the pot?

Against tighter ranges our equity is as low as 25%. Do we just calculate the pot odds for if we shove and he calls vs equity against his range to determine shoving the river or checking? Fold equity does not seem to be an issue because he will not be folding many hands in his range on this river the way this hand was played.

Feel free to suggest alternative hand ranges, I just thought it was interesting to have a range that seems reasonable and is dead even.

[Roco415]

i just dont give credit for a nine here...why would he check it down and risk not getting paid...plus what hand with a nine in it is really even semi likely? J9? i think thats folded out by any reasonable player...

[baudib]

First, just call preflop.

As played, I would bet the flop slightly harder.

I think your range for villain is a little silly. He probably has QJ/KJ/AJ here a lot.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 189 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 81 0.00 { TT-77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J7o+ }



Considering how passively he's playing, there's probably a lot of other random crap like A7 in here that we have crushed.

[Fnord]

Bet 400, call a shove.

Don't raise pre-flop.

[baudib]

I wish Fnord would post more often.

[drmcboy]

don't confuse this:

*** RIVER *** [Jc 2h 7d 8s] [Th]

with this

*** RIVER *** [Jc Th 8s 2h] [7d ]

In addition to the straight being much less likely, both the 8 and the T may have made him two pair so I would call this a pretty good river. baudib's range looks good


more generally, the dead money in the pot doesn't matter when you are deciding whether or not to bet on the end IP. you should only consider:

whether you are ahead when called

the danger of a check raise (EDIT - you of course will get called wider as the pot is larger compared to stack sizes and your bet size)

if you are OOP you would have to think about the pot since you don't want to bet a marginal hand and get raised off as a bluff, especially since you could c/c in the same spot and make even more money vs losing the whole pot. but, it may be good to make blocking bets if you have enough hand to call anyway but you are not sure if you are ahead and you expect villain to bet more than you will. There are not a lot of river bluff raisers in general.

Theory of Poker has a awesome "Heads up on the end" section that will be of great help in these spots.

[mcatdog]

I think he'd usually donkshove with a straight so I'm not concerned at all about being beat, only question is how much to value bet. I'd probably bet 800 again.

Don't like preflop unless villain is a special kind of terrible.

[sinister1]

First, just call preflop.

As played, I would bet the flop slightly harder.

I think your range for villain is a little silly. He probably has QJ/KJ/AJ here a lot.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 189 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 81 0.00 { TT-77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J7o+ }



Considering how passively he's playing, there's probably a lot of other random crap like A7 in here that we have crushed.

OK, apparently I have been using pokerstove incorrectly so thank you for pointing this out.

Theory of Poker has a awesome "Heads up on the end" section that will be of great help in these spots.

LOL. I just started reading this book a few days ago so I will definitely check out that section. Also thank you very much for the rest of your post which was very informative.

Bet 400, call a shove.

I do not get this. I get that we are ahead of his range and he might call 400 with some of the weaker hands he has, but is he really check/shoving the river with hands we beat too? Is the small bet to look weak and induce a shove from him? Please help me understand the logic behind the 400 bet.

[Poker Orifice]

I really, really don't like the raise preflop.

On the river I'm probably looking at betting out 800 & definitely calling if he shoves over.

[Sprayed]

Don't like preflop unless villain is a special kind of terrible.

Can you talk a little more about this? I know that in cash games you are to iso limpers. When does it become unprofitable from a stack size issue and from a hand range issue? I'm assuming that 22 from mp isn't strong enough to iso with and someone could 3bet behind you. Is this the idea?

[CorbinDallas]

lets assume villain has enough of a brain to think what we might have in our hand that we'd raise with pre flop... he probably thinks AK, AQ, AJ, JJ+... or to him maybe just big cards.

i think we can rule out J7, 77, J8, 9T, 78, 88. he'd think he had the best hand vs your over pair/tptk and try to get all the money in on the turn.

that leaves hands he'd stay around with thinking you didn't have a pair.... KJ, QJ, JT, J9, T8, T7, 98, a2, a7, and 33-66, 99-TT. we lose 4/15. 5/15 might stack off... top pair and two pair. lets assume the other 6 are folding to any bet on the river.

[fjuanl]

be pacient when you play your hands and wait for the moment to win it, not have to be ever in river you can win your hand in the flop, but if you think the just way to do it.

what the hell does this even mean? please stop trashing this forum

[dthorne04]

be pacient when you play your hands and wait for the moment to win it, not have to be ever in river you can win your hand in the flop, but if you think the just way to do it.

what the hell does this even mean? please stop trashing this forum

hmm, i feel like all out flaming the guy, but i'm pretty sure he doesn't understand english all that well.

either that or i predict it's mcat's gimmick account, here to tilt us all

VAMOOOOOOOOOO