Digging through old HHs - Sunday mil hand from Jan 2008

[KoRnholio]

I've only played the Sunday million a handful of times, I am pretty sure this HH is from my very first one, in the first or second orbit. I remember being very lost on the river, I couldn't see many or any worse hands paying me off the way the betting went. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $200+$15 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t10000)
MP1 (t9775)
MP2 (t9000)
MP3 (t10775)
CO (t10600)
Hero (Button) (t9925)
SB (t10225)
BB (t9775)
UTG (t9925)

Hero's M: 132.33

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 10
UTG calls t50, 2 folds, MP2 calls t50, 2 folds, Hero calls t50, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: (t225) 9, 3, 10 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets t225, 1 fold, Hero raises to t700, 1 fold, UTG raises to t1300, Hero calls t600

Turn: (t2825) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets t2850, Hero calls t2850

River: (t8525) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...?

Total pot: t8525

[baudib]

Just shove the turn. There are plenty of worse hands he can have here, including JJ-AA, AT, KT, etc. I estimate your equity to be at least 70-78%, easy shove on the turn really. If you're beat it's a cooler, I mean there are 5 combos of sets possible on the flop. This guy is pretty bad, I don't know what he thinks he's accomplishing with a turn pot and river check.


If you shove you should get called and you're well on your way to dominating your table for a long time.

As played, on the river your range is still crushing him, I could see checking if the river brought a high card or paired the board with a 3 or 7. Bet-call something like $2,500 and he'll make a crying call with AA.

[revolvingiris]

What was your thinking behind the flop 3-bet flat call?

I understand this is an older hand but looking at it now what are your thoughts here?

[drmcboy]

yeah if he was not UTG we could talk more about folding at some point but I think over pair is just too likely and this is a truly amazing line with a set.

Torn on shoving turn, I think both are OK with no read.

I would bet now, like half his stack or so.

[KoRnholio]

It was a long time since this, for one I was playing on scared money (never a good thing) and had probably never played any hands 200bb deep before. I think my thought process was that a turn shove would fold out weakish one pair hands (88/JJ/QQ) and any cracked out bluff he might be running.

Plan was to smooth call the turn and get a bet in on the river, but he checked and I got cold feet. These days I would definitely bet it because I don't think a set checks there ever.

[drmcboy]

yeah, he worked so hard to build the pot just to check now

[KoRnholio]

Results: I checked. Villain had KT.

[revolvingiris]

I would bet now, like half his stack or so.

This ^^^

I think a shove on the turn or river is losing value. As large as his turn spew bet is, it seems kind of weak. Like a "final stand" type bet. Which is actually kind of good as you have one more street for value.

As stated a set or straight (not likely) is never checking here unless they have a Johnny Chan like read on you.