2/4: had to bluff this sweet turn

[pocketfours]

SB is a good loose regular, doesn't attempt to steal my BB very lightly, probably respects my game. He knows I defend with a huge range. 140BB deep.

This is just such a sweet turn, how could I not bluff this? Sucks to have no equity but meh. I rep thin like 96/97/66/77/Ac9x/AcXc/8cTc/5c8c...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($720.60)
UTG ($418)
Button ($400)
SB ($569.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 10
2 folds, SB bets $14, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($28) 6, 9, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($68) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero raises to $125, SB calls $83

River: ($318) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $561.60 (All-In)

Not sure if he peels the turn here too light
it's funny because the hands you're repping are the likely hands he has
I still think he snapcalls with Ac
he probably folds T8/85 whether he has a club or not unless they're both clubs
but which hands do you expect him to call the turn and fold the river with?

other than straights and 9x I don't see much unless he can show up with 88/TT here

[minSim]

I like it. I think you can get away with betting smaller though.

(just a small stakes opinion)

[pocketfours]

I like it. I think you can get away with betting smaller though.

(just a small stakes opinion)

I wouldn't bet smaller for value and this is a reg vs reg hand. Did you notice that villain has $150 less than me?

[pocketfours]

but which hands do you expect him to call the turn and fold the river with?

Straights and 9x mostly. Low turned flushes if they still are in his range (unlikely).

but which hands do you expect him to call the turn and fold the river with?

Straights and 9x mostly. Low turned flushes if they still are in his range (unlikely).

yeah I just feels like he ships in flushes because he would be scared of a river card like that one and he only has a psb left

I will have to stove it later, since we already agree which hands he will fold and which hands he'll call with...

[minSim]

I like it. I think you can get away with betting smaller though.

(just a small stakes opinion)

I wouldn't bet smaller for value and this is a reg vs reg hand. Did you notice that villain has $150 less than me?

Yeah I noticed. I just wasn't sure 410 into a 318 pot is necessary and optimal when you're trying to fold villains bluffcatchers.

[mcatdog]

Yeah I noticed. I just wasn't sure 410 into a 318 pot is necessary and optimal when you're trying to fold villains bluffcatchers.

It's absolutely necessary, why would you bet anything less than all-in if you had the ace of clubs or a boat?

[minSim]

Yeah I noticed. I just wasn't sure 410 into a 318 pot is necessary and optimal when you're trying to fold villains bluffcatchers.

It's absolutely necessary, why would you bet anything less than all-in if you had the ace of clubs or a boat?

I probably wouldn't, although it's considerable. Of course it all depends on villains range and how much his calling range changes on different betsizes.

If we're basically trying to fold villains bluffcatchers, it's possible that we use different betsizes for our bluffs and valuebets. I would usually just think 'What hands am I trying to fold out' and 'What's the minimum betsizing that will accomplish that?"

It's bad for metagame of course (well at the least it makes it very complex), but I don't really have to worry about that at my stakes. This is all small stakes thinking, and not very applicable to the higher stakes I guess.

Although even when we do use the same betsizing for our bluffs and valuebets here, we should
But it surprised me a bit that betting 410 instead of 200 'only' needs 18% more folds. I think we're gaining way more FE by a shove, so it's pretty clear shove then.

Always fun thinking a little deeper while writing a response and conclude on the way the other guy is right .

yeah but 18% could be impossible since his range is like half nuts that will call any size and half straights/9x that will fold to any size UNLESS he feels that our line is not believable

so basically we need to bet an amount that is believable to avoid the hero call, whatever that is
sometimes it's betting half pot, sometimes it's overbetting

[IowaSkinsFan]

It's a terrible river for us. I may shut down on a club river. Then again, unless he puts us on a bluff he has to fold, with a certain image and dynamic this could be good.

[Alexos]

I too agree this river is sooo bad. I'm shutting down, but I would do this if river aint a club

[griffey24]

I agree that this river card is bad.

His turn calling range is full of clubs I'd imagine.

A lot of your turn raising range will not be jamming this river, aside from the nut flush. However, a lot of your nut flush draws probably raise this flop fairly often.

A lot of your boats/straight flushes might flat the turn again sometimes.

I just think after discounting a lot of these scenarios, your range for flatting flop, raising turn and jamming this river is very very narrow if villain is thinking... and given that he has a club often, it's prob no good here.