KQo bubble spot ($12/180)

[taipan168]

This is the money bubble of a $12/180 (where 10-18 pays a little less than twice your buyin). Opp's stats were something like 40/15 up to this point. Clearly opp is raising super wide here given his stack size and position. Shove over?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $11+$1 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t18050)
Button (t3760)
Hero (SB) (t5300)
BB (t20548)
UTG (t5970)
MP1 (t7660)
MP2 (t17366)

Hero's M: 3.07

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K
3 folds, CO bets t1600, 1 fold, Hero ????

[baudib]

What kind of read do you have on him? Was he minraising a lot? Obviously we have no fold equity but it looks OK.

[Im_new]

get it in.

[mcatdog]

If you're a short stack on the money bubble, where you're sure you'll cash if you fold, you generally need somewhere between 55% and 60% equity to call the all-in. Villain needs to be on top 50% or wider for you to have that here, which he might. I guess I'd gamble reluctantly.

[drmcboy]

are we sure we have no FE?

[taipan168]

are we sure we have no FE?

Opp is getting 2.25 to 1 pot odds on the call (considering the antes already in the pot) and he can call and lose and still be well in the game. Maybe we have a little bit of FE but not a great deal.

[drmcboy]

sure but if it's 10% that makes a big difference since it's so close just on hand strength. I'm not sure I buy that a 40/15 totally gets pot odds or is willing to look 'silly' calling here with 85s.

[Im_new]

sure but if it's 10% that makes a big difference since it's so close just on hand strength. I'm not sure I buy that a 40/15 totally gets pot odds or is willing to look 'silly' calling here with 85s.

hmmm... good point.

[dontezuma]

Meh, no way you can call profitably here. He could be 70/25 and I lay this down.

40/15 means he's raising 15% of hands and VPIPing 40% (i.e. calling the other 25%). What's your bubble equity versus a raising range of top 15%? I'm not sure, but meh. Even if he's got TJ, he busts us too many times to feel good about it. It's the bubble. You can't get it in with KQ against a raising big stack, esepecially since at 40%VPIP you know he's calling any two. It's only 2500 to call your AI. Easy, even with some pretty raggy holdings.

[Im_new]

Meh, no way you can call profitably here. He could be 70/25 and I lay this down.

40/15 means he's raising 15% of hands and VPIPing 40% (i.e. calling the other 25%). What's your bubble equity versus a raising range of top 15%? I'm not sure, but meh. Even if he's got TJ, he busts us too many times to feel good about it. It's the bubble. You can't get it in with KQ against a raising big stack, esepecially since at 40%VPIP you know he's calling any two. It's only 2500 to call your AI. Easy, even with some pretty raggy holdings.

what is your shoving range here?

[baudib]

Clearly given the situation, stack sizes and position, he's raising wider than 15%.

I do find it compelling that UTG is going to get blind-raped soon and BTN is even shorter than we are, but is this exactly 19/18? Or is it 20-21/18? Seems far from a given that we'll make the money by folding the rest of our hands.

[dontezuma]

Oh, I'm open shoving this if big stack isn't in the hand, but I'm 3-bet shoving pretty much TT+, AJ+. I don't like the situation, and it depends on frankly how I'm feeling. I agree he is opening wider than 15% here. But I also think you can shove twice the next orbit and get it back.

[nUFamn]

I think it's marginal enough that one can't fault you for any decision besides calling. Shoving is the aggressive choice, calling is clearly not an option, and folding is the safe route and clearly better than calling.

KQo has 46.2% equity vs (77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo+ - top ~15.1% of hands)

If you shove and he folds, you get an immediate 60% increase to your stack... if he calls your shove, you've got good equity against anything besides AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ.

I feel like it's an opportunity... it's risky, and I'd take it - maybe that's why I near-bubble a fair amount of these things. Soooo I'm interested in seeing what more vets have to say on the matter.

[dontezuma]

nUFamn,

This is the bubble, and you need at LEAST a 60% edge to shove if you believe (and I do) that he calls more than 75% of the time. He's 3xing in case the 20K BB shoves over. He's not folding to you. I am assuming he's tighter than if the SB and BB were shorter than him, but still fairly wide. Ax and 44+ are a huge part of his range, as are any broadway. You fare well against that "any broadway" range, but if you knew he had a PP (even 2s), or Ax (even A2), I just don't see getting involved.

I have played a lot of these MTT SNGs and the bubble is where it's won and lost. People call too loose and shove too tight. You are pretty close to fold-to-the-money, and for one ragged hand where you're hoping he's raising with KJ into a BB that has him outchipped 2-1 is asking for directions to the pink lady.

[fjuanl]

dontezuma, I think the range your assigning someone minraising the CO with 45/15 stats is way too tight. more realistically he's on something like 22+ A2+ K4s+ K7o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T9s 89s 76s I think its incorrect to pass up a spot like this unless theres someone at the other table with 1BB or something

[nUFamn]

You may be right in thinking that folding is a better way to safely make it into the money; but blinds are rising fast and nothing is guaranteed. In a SNG, where ITM% is huge, I can see folding this being more profitable (though I don't play 1-table SNGs). In a MTT/180-SNG, though, where most of the payout is in 1-3rd, I really don't need the 2x buy-in back bad enough to miss the shove-over in this spot.

If I could be guaranteed a 60% favorite hand, sure, fold and wait for it... but in these turbos I find myself getting it in behind a lot, simply because the blinds force me to try to make something happen, even if I sometimes get myself in as a 30/70 dog.

[mcatdog]

Oh, I'm open shoving this if big stack isn't in the hand, but I'm 3-bet shoving pretty much TT+, AJ+.

KQ is debatable but if you fold 88 and 99 here then you are a fish.

I don't like the situation, and it depends on frankly how I'm feeling.

Why would you ever make a decision based on "how you're feeling?"

But I also think you can shove twice the next orbit and get it back.

No you can't, it's the bubble and if you shove twice the next orbit you're very likely to lose your precious in the money that you were so excited about that you'd be folding 99 to this big stack's minimum raise. Especially given that as you yourself said, people call too loose and shove too tight, why would you ever want to shove a bad hand on the bubble into big stacks who call too loose? At least when we shove here with KQ, we're probably getting our money in with the best hand.

[taipan168]

I would fist pump insta shove 77-99 in this spot and reluctantly shove 55-66. Not sure about the smaller pocket pairs.

[revolvingiris]

Serious right now? We're considering folding KQ to a 40/15 minraise? Why do you need FE? Your way ahead of his range and bubble money is worthless.

[baudib]

The doctor makes a good point in that bad players will sometimes make ridiculous laydowns. In these tournaments where the big stack has like 20-25 BBs I have a hard time laying this down. I agree that it's close, I'd probably shove over with 77+/ATs+/KQs pretty quickly and think about A8-A9s/66.

I think I need a read that the shorter stacks are waiting for AA before making a stand to fold KQo against this guy.

[lNormajean]

any1 factor in that guy in bb is big stack too and can call pretty wide / isolate without feelin too bad about it. i fold, and wait for cash till i shuv marginal hands like KQ

[baudib]

any1 factor in that guy in bb is big stack too and can call pretty wide / isolate without feelin too bad about it.

Is this supposed to be a bad thing? Making the pot even bigger and getting it HU against a wide range is pretty awesome.

[lNormajean]

our equity 3 way goes through the floor with KQ

[nUFamn]

Do you have some sick read that BB has a big hand? CO is raising wide, you have KQ here, and BB is a random hand. Please explain to me why we should worry about BB. If he calls your shove lightly with a random K-rag, fantastic. If he calls your shove with a random A-rag, worse, but unless it's AK/AQ it's not disastrous. Same with a pair, but substitute QQ+.

[revolvingiris]

any1 factor in that guy in bb is big stack too and can call pretty wide / isolate without feelin too bad about it.

Is this supposed to be a bad thing? Making the pot even bigger and getting it HU against a wide range is pretty awesome.

+1

our equity 3 way goes through the floor with KQ

any1 factor in that guy in bb is big stack too and can call pretty wide / isolate without feelin too bad about it.

Why is the bb calling? This seems like a pretty silly thing to worry about.