200NL: AA (ez spot?)

[d0zer]

Villain is playing 37/18/2, 4% 3b over 80 hands.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG SeraphimV ($213.00)
CO Hero ($200.00)
BTN AAindaBB ($248.50)
SB DAXA81 ($77.90)
BB jakabjan ($247.35)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, DAXA81 calls $5, jakabjan raises to $10, Hero raises to $26, DAXA81 folds, jakabjan calls $16

Flop: ($58, 2 players)
jakabjan checks, Hero bets $32, jakabjan calls $32

Turn: ($122, 2 players)
jakabjan checks, Hero bets $42, jakabjan calls $42

River: ($206, 2 players)
jakabjan checks, Hero ($100)?

I hate that river because when he takes this c/c, c/c line I think he's got JJ/QQ here a lot and I doubt JJ calls a river shove now. There's 6 combos of AK, 3 KK, 3 QQ, so a shove is oEV if we weight each equally, but +EV if we think he'll call with TT/JJ. -EV if we don't think he'll play AK like this enough. Also on the offchance he played KQ like this I'm in trouble but I don't think he 3bets KQ.

mmMM?

you know if he's flatting a 4b his range is not QQ+, AK

[bode]

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

[griffey24]

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

[jyms]

There is no way I am only talkinga bout JJ+ and AK in this hand, but that J still sucks. And what griffey said, what was the goal of the 1/3 turn bet? He called a 3bet and a flop bet. I think he may not believe you (What do you think he thinks of you?) and is trying to showdown a K, or has a decent draw you gave him odds to play through the river.

I bet small here as played and hope to get paid by a Kxs or AJ bluff catcher. He's folding a ton of his Suited shit that hit the flop but missed.

[meeloche]

I would 4 bet bigger vs this guy. As played i would bet enough on the flop to shove every turn.

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

why not size it this way and shove river
it seems fine to me

[Alexos]

I would 4 bet bigger vs this guy. As played i would bet enough on the flop to shove every turn.

32$ pre, 2/3 flop, shove turn

[jyms]

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

why not size it this way and shove river
it seems fine to me

Becasue the board is drawy as hell and one of two things can happen, either we lose our action to a scare card, or he hit's his draw. adjusting the bet sizing allows us to get the money in on the Turn, when we have a bigger equity advantage vs his range of hands. God knows we ain't folding now anyway on the river no matter what falls off.

[griffey24]

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

why not size it this way and shove river
it seems fine to me

Would you want to leave a half pot bluff on the river if you had 9T or AJdd here or something?

This also isn't a spot where villain is particularly weak. He has just squeezed us AND called a 4bet OOP... we don't need to get fancy. He has a hand.. just ship it on the turn and let him decide if he wants to bluff catch with it.

[bode]

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

why not size it this way and shove river
it seems fine to me

the board is drawy enough and villain is seemingly bad enough, and vs his range that is calling 3 streets hes just as likely to call off his stack on the turn.

$44 on the flop and jam turn vs this villain.

this.

your turn sizing is tilting me! why would you want to leave a half pot shove on river? You have to plan your sizing better from the flop.

why not size it this way and shove river
it seems fine to me

Would you want to leave a half pot bluff on the river if you had 9T or AJdd here or something?

This also isn't a spot where villain is particularly weak. He has just squeezed us AND called a 4bet OOP... we don't need to get fancy. He has a hand.. just ship it on the turn and let him decide if he wants to bluff catch with it.

actually yes, I'd bluff here on the river for half pot vs. someone who's capable of folding

I didn't see that villain was bad, definitely better to bet big on the flop and shove turn

[d0zer]

I think this kinda guy defaults to calling rather than 3betting, so I really thought his 3b range is tighter than some are suggesting.

Because of that I wasn't worried too worried about draws, so my turn bet sizing was to make it easier for him to continue with lower pairs. AK I figure we're getting in anyway, even if another diamond comes down and once he's so committed by the turn bet I don't seen how he folds TT-QQ to a river shove. I'm letting him draw to 2 outs most of the time here imo, though I guess TT-JJ can see more scare cards than QQ.

[Alexos]

I think this kinda guy defaults to calling rather than 3betting, so I really thought his 3b range is tighter than some are suggesting.

Because of that I wasn't worried too worried about draws, so my turn bet sizing was to make it easier for him to continue with lower pairs. AK I figure we're getting in anyway, even if another diamond comes down and once he's so committed by the turn bet I don't seen how he folds TT-QQ to a river shove. I'm letting him draw to 2 outs most of the time here imo, though I guess TT-JJ can see more scare cards than QQ.

This is good reasoning.

The only thing I'd add is that bad hand readers will put you on those draws anyways, so you don't want a turned diamnd to kill your action, for example.

And it's also even more of a reason to raise bigger preflop.

[Toaster]

As played value town him for a small bet equal to the turn bet. Others are correct though. You are making a lot of bet sizing mistakes overall. Your 4-bet preflop should have been like $30-$35.

What you are doing can have the effect of making your lines unbalanced for when you are in (non 4-bet) spots where you want to maximize fold equity against a mid range when you are behind and want the opponent to fold.