$55, interesting turn spot with AK in 3bet pot

[fjuanl]

Villain seems like a fish after seeing the first ~15 hands. Lots of limp/folding, calling raises etc. No hands were shown down tho. What should my plan be for the rest of the hand? I cbet this flop with the intention of 2barreling most blank turns. (<Thoughts on that?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50+$5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t6100)
MP2 (t3230)
CO (t2950)
Button (t2970)
SB (t2900)
Hero (BB) (t2780)
UTG (t3070)
UTG+1 (t3000)

Hero's M: 92.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
2 folds, MP1 bets t80, MP2 calls t80, 3 folds, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, MP2 calls t220

Flop: (t690) Q, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t450, MP2 calls t450

Turn: (t1590) A (2 players)
Hero ???

[baudib]

If you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now?

Bet whatever amount you think he'll call (I'd go for $600-$900) and don't fold ever.

[KoRnholio]

I'd say flat or 3bet larger from the BB if you are going to raise.

As played, a half pot bet looks about right.

[mcatdog]

If you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now?

Bet whatever amount you think he'll call (I'd go for $600-$900) and don't fold ever.

I don't know man, a lot of hands beat us.

Also your statement "if you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now" doesn't really make sense, because the hands OP thought he could fold out by barreling, are either ahead of us now or are so far behind that they aren't likely to pay us off if we keep betting.

[baudib]

Fair enough -- I was looking at SPR and not the fact that we still have 100 BBs left.

Still this guy seems pretty terrible; I have his range as all broadways, 3 sets, a couple underpairs and T9; we're still pretty far ahead of that range here.

[drmcboy]

I'd c/c one street or two cheap ones, if he bluffs us out with two shells on this board after calling a 3 b good for him.

FWIW this is a spot where the Winning Poker Tournament guys all seem to cold call pre. I have been experimenting, to me it often feels dirty.

[fjuanl]

I guess its pretty hard to know for sure...but what do you think someones betting range is on the turn, once we check? How is AKo doing against that range?

Mcat pretty much summed up what I was thinking...a lot of hands had me crushed (AJ/AQ/KT) and betting TPTK actually seems too thin.

Meh I don't see the point in cold calling preflop, theres a fish who will call my 3bet with a range I completely crush

[baudib]

I'm still for betting the turn here. His range is so wide in these spots I am sure he peels with all broadways so he has a ton of 1 pair + gutshot hands that we destroy. Even if we exclude Ax hands we're beating on the flop we have 55% equity.

You think this range is about right?


Board: Qh Jc 3d Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.057% 50.84% 04.22% 2237 185.50 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 44.943% 40.73% 04.22% 1792 185.50 { QQ-TT, 33, AJs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[fjuanl]

That seems reasonable, but his range for actually calling a turn bet is what we should look at right?

[revolvingiris]

Why can you not go into check/call mode?

[baudib]

That seems reasonable, but his range for actually calling a turn bet is what we should look at right?

If he peeled a 450 bet on the flop with KJ, which I think he does, he'll call 600 in a 1590 pot.

I can see the merits of c/c but I feel like we just went ahead here more often than not. Yes there are many hands that have us beat but we have TPTK with a redraw to the nuts in a 3-bet pot against a terrible player.

It's an interesting hand though; I think the street we want to c/c is the flop.

[fjuanl]

Dunno how good my estimates are but I think I'm in pretty bad shape if I check turn and he bets

Board: Qh Jc 3d Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.510% 12.20% 08.31% 220 150.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 79.490% 71.18% 08.31% 1284 150.00 { QQ-JJ, 33, ATs+, KTs, AJo+, KTo }

Ideally I wanted the turn to go check/check and then I bet smallish on blank rivers to get those KQ/QT/KJ type hands to call. Thoughts on check/fold turn?

[baudib]

you're always in rough shape if you put villain on a range of hands that beat you.

[fjuanl]

you really think hes going to fire out KQ on the turn?

[baudib]

Maybe. More importantly, he'd call with KQ/KJ/QT/JT/T9 on the turn.

[revolvingiris]

Maybe. More importantly, he'd call with KQ/KJ/QT/JT/T9 on the turn.

how can hero bet the turn and not push the river? Villain may call a bet on the turn with this range but his range for beating/slowplaying us shouldnt be ignored.

This is why I said check/call. The same hands villain calls a turn bet with he is either fireing on the turn or checking behind when checked to. Worse case, hero bets out turn and gets shoved on. Which is pretty spew IMO.

[drmcboy]

Meh I don't see the point in cold calling preflop, theres a fish who will call my 3bet with a range I completely crush

you're OOP and ended up planning to try and bluff said fish twice, and you are in that boat 2/3 times you 3 bet. And this is one of the times you hit, although I know it wasn't really the right board. So I think this thread is more or less the spot they are looking to avoid. The question is, can you get back all that lost value (from him not calling the 3 bet) when you both flop TP?

In general their idea seems to be avoid the marginal situations 50+BBs deep, esp against fish or other people they cannot put a reliable read on and esp OOP. There are several spots where they cold call in similar stack size spots with JJ & QQ and one (I think pearl jammer or w/e his name is) IIRC basically states his 3 bet range early deep is KK+.

[baudib]

We have to accept that AKo is just not as profitable OOP. The problem here is preflop+flop play leaves us in a pretty bad position when called. We're putting in 37 BBs and don't want to continue when we hit our hand, we're going to double barrel and put in 1/3 of our stack and fold a lot, and we're rarely getting paid enough when we flop TPTK.

[fjuanl]

valid points there, i can see how my logic is a little flawed in terms of planning to 2barrel a fish who probably can't fold. is this a spot thats an auto-3bet in a cash game but maybe an ok flat in a donkament? or is the fact that I'm OOP too much of a problem?

[baudib]

I think you have to either decide that you're going to stack off on some scary boards when you hit or slow down on the flop or turn when you miss.

Good thread...we don't talk much about turn/river play here and AK is always a tricky hand postflop.

[drmcboy]

Before I read the book I would say I 3 bet here with AK 90% of the time or more. And I swear since I read it (~6 months ago?) I've had about 3 chances to try the flat and all three I just c/f the flop. But I have been thinking about it a lot. I don't play cash NLHE so I can't really comment except to say that conserving chips/place in the tourney def figures into their reasoning

[chardrian]

pj is a known nit so he would definitely call here. From my conversations with Rizen I can see him smooth calling here as well but only because he is OOP. PJ would call even if he was the button here, whereas Rizen would 3-bet.

I really don't think you can play this hand wrong, but you do get in lots of ugly spots post flop so just calling pre can't be bad.