1/2 KK 3bet pot weird river line

[bspahn]

opp: 20/16/2.7
fold to 3bet 60%, 4bet 1.6%
river freq 14%
fold to cbet 50% (in 3bet pots)

i'm not sure what my best line is on the turn, if barreling or checking is best. I guess he's not too spewy from his stats but i think he calls with a pretty wide range on this flop too since it doesnt seem to connect too much with my range (basically JJ+ only)

I think the hands I beat I can still get some value out of by making a river bet, can he ever really have a str8 or flush here or is it just a set and sometimes AT ?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG NastyNik ($469.30)
UTG+1 NICORSINOU ($197.00)
CO carlos211111 ($57.05)
BTN big-shoot ($189.85)
SB Cre123 ($271.58)
BB Hero ($233.65)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, NICORSINOU raises to $7, 3 folds, Hero raises to $24, NICORSINOU calls $17

Flop: ($49, 2 players)
Hero bets $29, NICORSINOU calls $29

Turn: ($107, 2 players)
Hero checks, NICORSINOU checks

River: ($107, 2 players)
Hero bets $44, NICORSINOU raises to $144

Final Pot: $295

[kmind]

How many hands do you have on him? I wouldn't think he would have a flush unless it's JsTs or Ts9s. He can definitely have a set here. I don't really think he has an A much at all but I think your line is fine and river is a b/f.

[bspahn]

pretty disgustingly i have 6.2k hands on him
this isn't a line i see him doing very often, like doing crazy spewy shoves like this.

do you think check or bet turn is better, and what about river sizing?

[Fnord]

Sick spot.

Does he see a turn with AK?
TT/22/33 make sense, although you have exactly the hand you're repping if he thinks deep enough it's a pretty slick spot to turn a bunch of smaller pairs into bluffs.

[bspahn]

sets make sense, but i thnk a lot of regs these days raise these up on the flop, perhaps this is a special non-drawy type flop that could slow play though.

yea my hand is kinda face up in the JJ-KK range isn't it, it's so hard for me to see him floating AK here i mean we already have KK so makes it less likely and floating this flop with AK i dunno if this guy would really do that - bah!

maybe we should be betting turn here because he might put us on a bluff and call with a ton of weaker pairs? unfortunately i dont think he has any KT/QT/JT/9T in his range here though

[bode]

if villain can hand read at all he is going to be shoving a ton of hands here because besides an occasional TT that went for a turn c/r, at best you have a 1 pair hand less than a pair of aces.

[Da GOAT]

pretty sick, prob shud fold

y check turn

[bikes]

if villain can hand read at all he is going to be shoving a ton of hands here because besides an occasional TT that went for a turn c/r, at best you have a 1 pair hand less than a pair of aces.

+1

[Da GOAT]

imo opp can think of what you are holding and probably be correct in his assumption, but its a totally different to assume he can use that information to make the correct conclusion as to what he should do.

[bspahn]

someone said opp would go for turn CR, he's the one IN POSITION, read the hand correctly.

okay, so we probably should bet turn, i think we're more likely to get value from hands we beat this way, including some 88/99/JJ type hands (i'd expect QQ to 4bet pre almost every time)

i think the way that I played it, if i check turn and then check river i might be able to bluff catch a tiny bit but i think a lof of the hands I beat will check behind and only hands that crush me will bet, which is why I lead. remember opp is not super agrro, and generally v passive on river

[Renton]

fold without a history of him turning pairs into bluffs and making all sorts of fancy plays

[griffey24]

I like your line. I'd bet bigger on the river to make sure I'm not inducing a bluff raise. This is also a spot where if villain is calling our bet, he's probably making some sort of hero call, so a bigger bet makes it look more like we're bluffing.

As played, I'd folddd.

[bspahn]

what's your line here with my hand, i guess id like to know the reasoning for checking or betting turn, and same on river.

[Renton]

i think betting turn is a little thin vs unaware opposition, but i don't really mind it

[bjsaust]

I think our hand is somewhat transparent, but I cant see a better way to play it...

[bspahn]

one issue too is that i think we c/f our AK/AQ hands on this flop vs this specific opponent...
i think a lot of times people just call here with hands we beat including Tx/JJ/QQ/99 type stuff, it's super rare to see regs turning made hands into bluffs in spots like this

I think our hand is somewhat transparent, but I cant see a better way to play it...

bet turn, he's calling with Tx because everyone knows the ace is a scare card ldo

[sauce123]

i just bet like my whole range on that turn oop

[Stacks]

I agree with the turn bet crowd. Honestly don't really see a reason not to with KK. I think with JJ/QQ I would like checking turn more. But with KK, we still get sufficient value from Tx, JJ-QQ, plus we keep our range balanced and disguised. Not to mention, this is a turn card we likely barrel our bluffs on.

Also, regarding flop betsizing. This is a spot where in a fair amount of cases, I like a bit bigger of a flop bet with my value hands. If villain has a high fold to 3bet %, then on low boards (coordinated or not), he will generally have a pretty strong range, one in which he will call a larger bet for at least one street usually. Seems like since this is the case, as well as the fact that we are check/folding a fair amount of our whiffed hands, that a larger betsize is best. It gets more money in making him feel more committed on the turn/river with his somewhat marginal hands.

Although, I def don't mind a smallish 1/2 pot or so cbet here. Just something to think about.

[Renton]

i agree in theory with betting the turn, i just feel like these really nitty ppl give it too much credit and fold like everything.

i agree in theory with betting the turn, i just feel like these really nitty ppl give it too much credit and fold like everything.

people who fold turn would also fold river
in that case betting the turn is better because we don't let the 5 outers suck out

or... this happens

[bjsaust]

I shouldn't comment on hands before I'm properly awake.