Last 4 in $12/180, KTs against LAGG

[taipan168]

Down to the last 4 in a $12/180. UTG has been LAGGing it up with the big stack. Some hands earlier he 3-bet for half his stack against my UTG raise with T8o and showed me.

Time to take a stand with 5.5x BB?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $11+$1 Tournament, 3500/7000 Blinds 700 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t100020)
Hero (Button) (t37852)
SB (t69384)
BB (t62744)

Hero's M: 2.85

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 10
UTG bets t21000, Hero ?????

[fjuanl]

Was it normal for him to open to a standard amount in spots like this where everyone has 10BBs or less? Is it possible that he would raise/fold to a SB/BB shove? Most pushbots will shove in UTG's situation. Regardless, I'd most likely fold unless you felt you had no fold equity on a shove next hand

[Bradley]

We obviously have no fold equity when shoving this, so do you really think we have the best hand here?
Even though his opening range here is pretty wide I think.. I'd probably wait another round to shove with a hand where we do have some fold equity imo.

[Extremophile]

How often he opened 3x up to that hand? How many pots did he take down like this? How were the reactions of blinds to him? Were they tight? They might actally have a hand right now if they have played tight so far. We are getting ground but our position is not so great. I remember trying to take a stand against this type of guy and getting beat by the other guys that act after me. I guess folding is OK since we are out of position, we have already put our blinds in and we can wait for 1 more cycle. Let them defend their blinds.

[mcatdog]

Nice use of math guys, not sure why anyone would think their "opinion" on what to do here would have any validity without showing the mathematics.

ICM says you need around 58% to call it off here, and you need him to be raising more than 60% of hands to have that kind of equity. I'd probably take a gamble though if I thought I was 55% or so against him, because doubling up gives you so much more fold equity on your future shoves which ICM doesn't account for. That makes it really close, I'd probably get it in if I thought the 3x vs. shove tell meant nothing, and fold if I thought the 3x weighted his range to slightly stronger, but anything you do isn't much of a mistake here.

[drmcboy]

They might actally have a hand right now if they have played tight so far.

[revolvingiris]

SnG wiz says its a fold when using ICM if villain is raising with 100% of hands...However using cEV, if villain is raising 26% or more its a shove.

[mcatdog]

SnG wiz says its a fold when using ICM if villain is raising with 100% of hands...However using cEV, if villain is raising 26% or more its a shove.

Not for me it doesn't...what ranges are you putting the blinds on to overcall your all-in?

[fjuanl]

revolving, you probably left it on the 1-table SnG payout (50/30/20). You have to change the payout structure so that it fits with Stars 180mans. (Tools/User Defined Structures) For me its saying he has to be opening about 80% for it to be breakeven. Of course you can consider future hands...ie how valuable doubling up is + how often you'll get folds if you shove next hand

[revolvingiris]

Not for me it doesn't...what ranges are you putting the blinds on to overcall your all-in?

[fjuanl]

yep you used the 1-table sng structure of

1st: 50%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 20%

180man payouts are

1st: 30%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 12%

etc

[Vegastripreport]

Is the hero’s M getting enough attention here? He has less than 6BB. How much longer can he afford to wait? With UTG making moves, this seem as good a spot as you are going to get.

[revolvingiris]

yep you used the 1-table sng structure of

1st: 50%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 20%

180man payouts are

1st: 30%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 12%

etc

I noticed that right after I posted :-S...I changed the structure using the 45 man and if villain is betting 96% its still a fold. However, when I used the Full Tilt MTT option is says as long as villain is raising more than 27% its a push.

[RoundThemUPjoe]

I don't have any of those math programs so I'm not sure on the math side of things but I do know that I played a similar situation today 4 remaining LAG player raised and I shoved with K9 and the SB woke up with AK and crushed me. Reading my HH if I could go back I would rather wait and push with 4 BB left out of the SB with ATC than push UTG+1 with 3 people behind me.

[revolvingiris]

I don't have any of those math programs so I'm not sure on the math side of things but I do know that I played a similar situation today 4 remaining LAG player raised and I shoved with K9 and the SB woke up with AK and crushed me. Reading my HH if I could go back I would rather wait and push with 4 BB left out of the SB with ATC than push UTG+1 with 3 people behind me.

Unless you spike a 9 and AK blanks...Then you wouldnt have posted this :P

[RoundThemUPjoe]

Very possible I didn't look at it that way thank you for bringing that to light. I've never even look at my HH and I wasn't happy with how that one turned out. I like this site already, I will think more before my next post.