50NL Please Tell Me It's a Turn Shove

[kmind]

Villain is 41/27/1.3/fold to cbet 27% over 141 hands. He seemed to only raise when he had something. He can surely be doing this with KJ/KT, no? I might get the "you're just running bad" stuff so sorry if true.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($37.75)
Hero (MP) ($50)
Button ($50)
SB ($102.10)
BB ($66.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 7, 10, J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $14.50

[Hawk]

I'm shoving here. He does like his hand so you are probably getting called. I agree that KJ/KT make the most sense. AQ would also fit since he doesn't fold to many cbets. He could have KQ, though I'm not sure if KQ other than KdQd raises here. I could also see a flopped set or 2pr that didn't raise the flop despite the drawy board (he is a fish, right?).

Stoving this range says:

Board: 7d Th Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.979% 78.70% 00.28% 59990 216.00 { 9c8d }
Hand 1: 21.021% 20.74% 00.28% 15808 216.00 { JJ-TT, 77, AQs, KTs+, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KTo+, JTo }


So if my villain ranges are anywhere close here it's a clear shove.

[bikes]

A fish is c/r u on the turn and we have the 3rd nuts. I really want to fold.

Pretty sure with your read hed raise KJ JT and sets on the flop.

[Hawk]

He said he only raises when he has something. I guess villains definition of "something" is the issue here. Does KJ/KT qualify on this flop? I'd also expect sets to raise this flop, but not as sure as I'd be against a TAG since fish often pick bad spots to slowplay.

[kmind]

A fish is c/r u on the turn and we have the 3rd nuts. I really want to fold.

Pretty sure with your read hed raise KJ JT and sets on the flop.

What's your move here then? Call and fold rivers?

Hawk - I still think sets and flopped two pairs are raising flop. He's also more inclined to raise JJ preflop. You have to add 98 in your range too. So I would take our all sets and flopped two pairs and throw in 98.

[Marshall28]

Bet bigger on the flop and turn. Your bet looks like it's intending to induce a bluff raise, but hardly anybody bluff raises on these boards. If he has a hand that can call 2.50, he has a hand that can call 3.50. It makes quite a difference in the long run once you realize that on the turn the pot will be 11 instead of 9 and now you can bet 9 instead of having to bet 6. ...Wow, you just made 8 big blinds extra.

When he raises turn it's not a spot I'm happy about at all, but can't figure out any other option that would be better than going all in.

[kmind]

Def. agree to bet bigger on both streets and I always do not quite sure what happened.

[bjsaust]

Doesn't QJ make up a lot of his range here?

[Alexos]

bet way bigger on drawy boards!!!!! 3.5$ on flop, 8$ on this turn

as played shove i spose

[zook]

Hawkfan: you left out the turn card.

kmizzle: I think it's really close. I'm sure I'd get it in without a lot of time to think about it. But it's a bit optimistic to think that a passive player as described is c/r'ing and stacking off with KQ, QJ or even a set here, when the board is so obviously straightening. I definitely like bigger bets on both streets, but the fact you bet small and only have 20bb invested makes a fold a bit easier to swallow.

cliffnotes: marginal spot, don't sweat it

[kmind]

What about calling turn and c/f a Kd on the river? wink wink

[Parasurama]

haha calling sucks ldo

[Renton]

i don't see a huge problem with call call

i would bet more on early streets and shove now as others have said.

[kmind]

haha calling sucks ldo

?

[Parasurama]

haha calling sucks ldo

?

I thought by wink wink you meant that's what actually happened, so basically I meant calling sucks if the river is the Kd

[kmind]

Oh yeah sorry that's what happened. Thought you meant about turn call so I was like wtfff fml even though shoving seems to be better.

Btw, not to derail, the Jerrelle dude going to Georgetown (can only assume that's your team) is my girlfriend's good friend. Partied with him twice, very nice guy but I don't think he's 6'8".

/randomness

[Parasurama]

oh nice I thought hollis thompson was our only good prospect for next year. It's going to be so sick this year my house is right next to the basketball team's.

btw, shoving turn is much better than calling imo. Like if you flat he'll still get it in on blank rivers with hands that you beat but if he has a combo draw or a set he's got a decent number of outs and he's getting it in on the turn anyway.

[kmind]

Yeah I wouldn't expect too much from him no offense but yeah I think you are right about shoving.

[Parasurama]

so I googled "jerrelle georgetown" and this is the first hit

http://blog.georgetownvoice.com/2009...to-georgetown/

i'm LOLing at the second comment

[kmind]

Haha. He was pretty wasted both times I was with him but not sure about drug dealer. His crowd is into drugs though I know that much.