Do you call this or fold?

[slumpy]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15+$1 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer





This guy played pretty solid I think but pretty sure he has a very wide range here. Too tight of a fold?

[RockyMoose]

I fold 98s here.

[slumpy]

Yeah, that's what I thought too, but when I ran it through pokerranges.com, I was surprised:

For practicality, this PokerRanges.com
simulation was only run 100,000 times. Therefore, the percentages are close but not exact.

Hero's hand: 9 8
Range: 32, 42+, 52+, 62+, 72+, 82+, 92+, A2+, J2+, K2+, Q2+, T2+, 22+

Overall Odds:
Win: 48.6%
Tie: 3.9%
Lose: 47.5%

Considering I was also the BB w/ $600 in, maybe it's a decent call. The above range is against any 2 cards.

[Raoni_Poker]

He is not shoving that wide and you have to consider the odds of calling

Total pot is 4010 and you should put around 2300 to call. Thats 1.7:1 (around 60%).

In order to call, you need a hand that wins more than 40% to be profitable against his range. Assuming he has a tighter range, lets say 30% (which is fairly loose, BTW), your hand has 37% equity. Therefore, thats not a profitable move on the long run.

2,499,963,840 games 5.219 secs 479,012,040 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.406% 61.34% 01.06% 1533543368 26592350.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 37.594% 36.53% 01.06% 913235772 26592350.00 { 98s }

[taipan168]

You need SNG Wiz to analyse these sorts of spots properly.

In a game, I would probably fold, but after running it through SNG Wiz I think it's a call. It is +EV (but only marginally so) if opp is shoving 20% of hands or wider. It becomes increasingly +EV once he shoves 60% and beyond.

[slumpy]

Ok, so 98s is a marginal call, depending on opponent's range. And so T9s is a stronger call in this same situation - I'll need to remember these. In the pressure of the situation, my instinct is to fold, but against better, winning players (sharkscope), I notice their range of pushing becomes wider in this spot, in which case I should be calling more often than I do...

[RockyMoose]

Ok, I know this has come up before when talking about ICM, but this seems like an easy fold to me. Even when ICM says this is a call, it has to be marginal at best.

So why not pass up a slight edge now in order to take advantage of a bigger edge in the next few hands? By bigger edge, I mean that if the table is playing generally too tight (as it often does), then I can shove a wider range when first to act and get some fold equity and more chips.

I'll save my calls for when it's clearer that I have a larger +EV. 89s isn't good enough.

[FlyingSaucy]

His M is like 2.8. I think it's appropriate for button to shove very very wide here, possibly atc, especially if you guys have been tight. I'd snap call with 98s.

[TLR]

If button is a decent player he is shoving very wide, I think I call this

[Raoni_Poker]

Even if he is shoving something like 60% is only a marginal call. You're currently the chip leader, but 2300 is quite a chunk of your stack. I say, wait for better spots even if he is shoving wide.
If he is shoving ATC, thats a call....but how you're going to know that? I say...assume a tighter shoving range and your errors will be minimized.

[Kijjo]

Those of you who are advocating a fold here, I know my gut says the same thing, but you have to consider payout too, not just winnability of this hand.
Assuming this SNG is a 9 or 10 player game that pays 3 spots, you've already locked in 20% of the prize pool. By taking second you're only going to win another 10%, but if you can take a marginal risk to boost your chiplead to SMOTHERING your opponents, you can have a huge advantage and going for the top spot which pays out 50% (30% more than you currently have).
Besides, even if you lose this hand, you'll still be left with 4k, while your villians will have roughly 6k and 3k.
PS - Raoni, the range you ran the numbers on, while a fair guess, I think you're going to see a ton of A2's, K3's etc. that aren't in that range. Not saying it'd change the results much, but I think folks would push wider usually.
If this happens to be a 6 player game that pays out only two spots, I fold this so fast my mouse squeaks.

[Raoni_Poker]

I ran some ICM calculations, just to contribute to the discussion (assuming its 1 table SG). The results are:
The button should shove 29% (22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s 98s)
The BB should call 43.9% (22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T8s+ T9o 98s)

As you can see, 98s is on the bottom side of that range. I dont think is a bad call, but I think is a very marginal call...I still would fold here.

Some might ask: 30% isnt pretty tight shoving range? This is because he is on the button and both the SB and the BB have good odds to call here widely...
Of course the ICM does not account the fact that he is the BB on the next hand...but still... I dont think he is shoving ATC here (and that makes it a marginal call).

[slumpy]

Payout is a good point, this was a 9-player turbo SnG at Stars, so top 3 get paid.

So if 98s is marginal either way, do we most likely call this with T9s? For those of you folding 98s, are you folding T9s, or is that strong enough for you?

[Raoni_Poker]

Assuming a shoving range of 60%, which is fairly wide, villain would shove (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T3s+,95s+)

We need around 42% equity to get even...so...lets assume 45% to make the call less marginal. Here is the equity of specific hands against his range:

98s: 43% (mathematically correct, but only marginal)
T8s: 44% (mathematically correct, but only marginal)
T9s: 46% (almost coin flip)
JTs: 50% (coin flip)

Thats one way to analyze it. These results vary quite significantly if his range is 50% or 40%, for instance. So...I'm not saying that calling is incorrect or folding is correct.

Is he shoving hands like 95+, T3+, J2s, Q2? These hands are all considered in the calculations, but I think is a flat way to analyze it. If we consider that he would shove more often his top 30% hands and less often the other 30% of the hands...thats even more marginal call.

I would fold because I think even if he is shoving that wide and considering flat calculations, it is still marginal.

[dontezuma]

I'm folding this because I can steal 'em right back, and I feel like I've got a bigger edge heads up, so if one guy gets knocked out and the other doubles up, we're about even, and I club him to death like a baby seal.

I'm not calling on a flip. I'll shove on a flip, but not call.

[FlyingSaucy]

You call this and every time you play these guys in the future they will be scared as crap to shove loose against you, because apparently the fear of calling here is more widespread than I thought. It seems the facts dictate a call, and the fear dictates a fold. If you want to play by fear then fold. I agree it depends on the range of the pusher, but I'm assuming the pusher is good and sees the icm value in pushing pretty much anything.

[Kijjo]

I love this, I played a few $3's tonight and it was crackin' me up, cause I was pushing and calling with these middlin' hands and it was makin' 'em so mad! It was like a "turbo-tilt" button for my opponents. Several times I'm in with T8s, JTs, QTo, etc and they think that I'm such a donk, while they're playing K3o and stuff (they seemed to have no concept of stack sizes). I had 'em so pissed at one table, they just started snap shoving/calling every hand I was in, which was fun 'cause I picked up AK and JJ and QQ. Only ended up 2nd, but was just wicked fun - could picture the steam coming out of their avatars.