$22, FD+overs on turn facing lead

[fjuanl]

I'm always confused when people take this line. Calling, shoving and folding all seem like options. Villain is 8/4 through 80 hands so that means I have no reads.

I'm getting 3.34/1 odds and have 22.7k on the turn

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t25439)
SB (t22735)
BB (t31434)
UTG (t8500)
Hero (UTG+1) (t27813)
MP1 (t47600)
MP2 (t14812)
MP3 (t21590)
CO (t22591)

Hero's M: 13.24

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, K
1 fold, Hero bets t2000, 6 folds, BB calls t1200

Flop: (t5300) 7, 9, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2975, BB calls t2975

Turn: (t11250) 4 (2 players)
BB bets t4800, Hero ???

[drmcboy]

I would just call. You have a decent chance to bluff any FD on river even if they have a pair.

I can't really see folding because I can so easily see this being a worse draw or 55 or like T7 trying to keep you from shoving him off the pot after he gets a good turn.

also if the worst happens and you make a pair on the end vs a weird set/straight it looks like he may not charge you much.

[rewfie40]

You're not alone in being confused in these spots.

Is it correct to believe with him only being 8/4 even though its only over 80 hands it makes him more likely to have set than a random pair?

I can't really see him betting so small with 2 pair or better due to all of the draws out there besides maybe 810 here so i think i would shove. Obviously if he calls you probably only have your flush draw outs but i think the fold equity you have makes a shove best.

[revolvingiris]

I can't really see him betting so small with 2 pair or better due to all of the draws out there besides maybe 810 here so i think i would shove. Obviously if he calls you probably only have your flush draw outs but i think the fold equity you have makes a shove best.

You think villain has air?? It looks more like a "shove over me" bet. I would be shocked to see a K or Q good here as well. I would prob call as your implied are more than there.

[rewfie40]

I think he has air some of the times but mainly i don't think he has something that has us drawing to only a flush draw would bet so small on a drawy board. That leaves random pairs that are pretty much never going to call a shove.