AKs deep looking to maximize value

[revolvingiris]

The lower hand is the one I am questioning. Villain has been pretty quiet his stats were 8/6 (VPIP/PFR) over 50 hands. Normally I would just call with AKs here but this particular player was a rock. I have only turned up two hands. 33 where I flopped a set and 97o for the blind steal which is posted below.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00+$0.30 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t14151)
Hero (Button) (t28270)
SB (t19584)
BB (t39358)
UTG (t5150)
UTG+1 (t16775)
MP1 (t26863)
MP2 (t7370)
MP3 (t26845)

Hero's M: 26.92

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 7
6 folds, Hero bets t1000, SB calls t800, 1 fold

Flop: (t2850) 4, 3, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t2850) 7 (2 players)
SB bets t800, Hero raises to t2000, SB calls t1200

River: (t6850) 3 (2 players)
SB bets t1200, Hero calls t1200

Total pot: t9250


The hand below is the reason for this post. The top hand is back story.

My thought process for this hand was that villain could easily 3bet me light as I have just shown a weak hand stealing the orbit prior to this (ie the 97o hand above). So if he was doing this with AQ-AJ I dont see him folding to my shove over. I time banked when making my choice. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00+$0.30 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 60 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t13451)
Hero (Button) (t32040)
SB (t17894)
BB (t38178)
UTG (t12700)
UTG+1 (t15495)
MP1 (t17523)
MP2 (t11520)
MP3 (t25565)

Hero's M: 24.84

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
6 folds, Hero bets t1250, 1 fold, BB raises to t3500, Hero raises to t31980 (All-In), BB calls t28480

Flop: (t64750) 2, 2, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t64750) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t64750) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t64750

edit: idk why the suits arent showing up but I dont have a flush on either hand. Board is rainbow on both.

[fjuanl]

I'd never fold, but with 60BB's you can make a 4bet that isn't a shove. That gives villian a chance to make a bigger mistake

I think your overestimating people's ability to adjust. An 8/6 isnt going to turn into a 3bet monkey just by seeing you open with 97. I also don't know why you are saying that you would be more likely to 4bet vs a tight player and call vs looser players. I would 4bet and get all in with anyone but I'd like it more if they were loose

[revolvingiris]

I think I worded that weird. I would shove on a loose player also. I was just saying that this guy based on stats is going to be hard to get chips from. So I would rather ship and let him make the mistake by calling off with a worse hand.

Say I 4bet like you say, he ships with what beats me but either flat calls or folds worse.

Villain has AA btw lol...

[dthorne04]

if villain has been 8/6 over 50 hands, are you really sure he's three betting you light, and for the sake of playing devil's advocate, let's say he is, why are you overshoving and likely letting him off the hook, and losing value for your hand

[revolvingiris]

if villain has been 8/6 over 50 hands, are you really sure he's three betting you light, and for the sake of playing devil's advocate, let's say he is, why are you overshoving and likely letting him off the hook, and losing value for your hand

I thought if I over shoved I could get AJ-AQ to call based on my play on the previous orbit. Although, I think its better for me to practice not making such drastic read based plays. Just because I think those hands would pay me off doesnt mean they would. I prob should have 4bet like fjuanl said...or just call which I can see being fine also.

[dthorne04]

if villain has been 8/6 over 50 hands, are you really sure he's three betting you light, and for the sake of playing devil's advocate, let's say he is, why are you overshoving and likely letting him off the hook, and losing value for your hand

I thought if I over shoved I could get AJ-AQ to call based on my play on the previous orbit. Although, I think its better for me to practice not making such drastic read based plays. Just because I think those hands would pay me off doesnt mean they would. I prob should have 4bet like fjuanl said...or just call which I can see being fine also.

i mean, i pretty much agree with everything fjuanl said. you should make a standard 4bet rather than just shove over the 3bet and let them make the mistake(s). i think you're also assuming that all players are going to autoadjust to you and start 3betting you light because of one hand where you showed down a weak hand after a pfr. i mean, some players will start monkeying off to you, but even so you can't assume that.

[revolvingiris]

So at what point can you take your image/hands you have shown down and use it to your advantage?

[Sprayed]

So at what point can you take your image/hands you have shown down and use it to your advantage?

In an MTT that's hard to do because you don't get a lot of hands with people and true solid reads are hard to come by. I agree with dthorne and fjuanl that this guy is not going to use just one hand to categorize you. I'm not folding the AK in that spot though but I would assume that he would have at least TT+.

[drmcboy]

bet the flop in hand 1.

see if you can go ten posts with out posting a result.

I'd call the 3 bet second hand but I don't think any of the non fold plays you can make are bad. Some people probably call a shove lighter than a 4 bet, others not.

[revolvingiris]

see if you can go ten posts with out posting a result.

Ok but does knowing that villain has AA effect anyones responses for my question? I mean it shouldnt as even per Sprayed's range of TT+ is realistic.

[drmcboy]

it's just something I think will help you more than anything else you can get from this thread.

[fjuanl]

Him having AA just means AA is in his range. Doesn't tell you anything about what else he could show up with

[revolvingiris]

Ahhh, ok I get it. NO MORE SHOWING!!!

[dthorne04]

It's just that results of the hand are of minor importance relative to discussing the hand, and actually being constructive in thought towards the hand. Often giving results will hinder the discussion as well.