ICM versus Chips Expected Value

[Raoni_Poker]

Hi all,

I've been analysing my game with SnG Wiz lately. I noticed that, specially in some SB x BB situations, there is conflict between ICM calculations and the EV of the play.

This seems to me quite a complex situation to analyze during a game, and I admit my approach to ICM is merely intuitive. I wonder how a +EV play can be -EV in terms of ICM.

[dontezuma]

In game, the ICM analysis pretty much has to be intuitive. You don't have time to do the real calculation. That's why you have to do those quizzes, so that you have a feel for the EV when it comes up in real time.

That said, the difference is due to bubble considerations, if I'm understanding your post. I'm pretty sure SNG Wiz takes into account the BB going into the SB in the next hand, and that may account for it. Other than that, unless it's a significant difference, I wouldn't worry about it.

[Raoni_Poker]

I noticed that when you're one of the chipleaders, you have to push tighter when the leader is the BB (even if the play is +EV). You also can call very loose if you have more than 50% of the chips (the 1st prize is 50% of the prize pool).

I'm doing a lot of quizzes here (specially for SB and late position). The software presents weird recommendations when it comes to HU play. Whats the point of pushing T3o from the SB (with 6BB) and be called 38% of the time (with almost equivalent stacks, BTW)? Thats a lottery, isnt it?

Some things remain a mistery to me...

[Nakamura]

Imagine a situation where there are 4 players left. These are the stack sizes with 100/200 blinds

Player A - 8000 chips
Player B - 5000 chips
Player C - 100 chips
You - 1500 chips

You are dealt KK. Player A pushes. Let's say you know his range is 100% here. Thus calling is very +CEV, since you'll win roughly 80% of the time, but ICM indicates a fold is in order because if you call and lose you win nothing. Therefore CEV is positive for calling, but the tournament EV (or ICM calc, if you like) is negative.

Regarding pushing with T3o, well it's kind of a lottery. The issue is 6BB isn't really a lot to work with. He's still folding 60% of his hands and you're still over 30% to win the hand if he calls. I'd rather gamble and push (unless I've seen a better way to exploit him) than fold and hope to get a better hand.

[Bradley]

Yeah, in a cashgame 1$ is always gonna be worth 1$, but in SnG's the value of your chips change. Nakamaru explained this pretty well with his example.
That's why sometimes when you get the right odds, it's still not worth the call.

[bjsaust]

Analyze away from the game, so that your intuition is more accurate at the table. Noone expects you to do ICM calcs in your head in the heat of the moment, but you need to spend time studying it so that you can make pretty accurate guesses at the table.