QQ gets minraised pre flop and villain bets on low flop

[Fortitude]

Villain was 0/0 over 4 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00+$0.20 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1040)
UTG+1 (t1370)
MP1 (t1800)
MP2 (t1400)
Hero (MP3) (t1470)
CO (t1470)
Button (t2110)
SB (t1400)
BB (t1440)

Hero's M: 49.00

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 calls t20, 1 fold, Hero bets t140, 3 folds, BB raises to t260, 3 folds, Hero calls t120

Flop: (t590) 3, 8, 8 (2 players)
BB bets t380, Hero folds

Total pot: t590










I put him on Kings or Aces.
Bad fold at the $1.2>

[dontezuma]

Looks like a classic (poorly executed) squeeze from the BB. Yeah, you can put him on AA or KK, but at $1.20? I'm shoving, nh, gg, reload.

[Sprayed]

I don't think that it's that bad in an STT since it's all about getting in the money. However, at this buy-in it would be hard not to shove over preflop. If you have time during the game, look them up on sharkscope when you don't have reads.

[Bradley]

You just turned your QQ into any low PP as you are basically setmining with it.
You get the flop you want with your high overpair then fold to a continuation bet..
Pre flop raise 100-120 is enough I think (~3x BB + 1x BB for ea limper). 140 is not really bad but I like raising a bit less as it's enough to get value and a few more chips isn't gonna isolate much in low limits anyways, you're gonna save some chips in the long run.

As played I also flatcall pre flop, wouldn't 4bet/shove this early in the tourney. I'd insta shove it back postflop though.

I layed down KK on a all undercards rainbow flop before, but that was vs a decent reg(had history with him) who limp/called my PFR then shoved over my flop bet(put him on a set) but laying down a hand like that is VERY read dependent.

[Nakamura]

The pre-flop raise is fine, but by folding you have essentially turned a good hand into a bluffing hand. He has min-raised you, which could be a variety of hands at this level. I would say calling here is probably leaking chips, unless you intend on trapping smaller pairs and following through on most flops. The thing is you want to try and extract value from 88-JJ and AK or AQ before the flop spooks him. I think the best way of extracting value from your hand (at this level), is just to push and expect calls from AK-AJ and 88+.

[taipan168]

I agree with Naka, I am shoving over preflop and expecting to get called by a whole lot of hands that we beat. What's your plan if you flat call and an A or K comes on the flop?

As played, sorry to be harsh but I think the fold is terrible and I would fist pump shove over. I don't see how you can possibly put opp solely on AA or KK rather than 99-JJ or missed overcards with which he is c-betting the flop.

[Bradley]

Hmm you guys are kinda right about the pre flop shove. Though I would sharkscope him first, vs a decent regular I wouldn't be sure to shove it
As the 3bet range of a decent SnG player early on is probably tighter, and we only have about 50% equity at max vs that 3bet range {JJ+,AKs,AKo}. We are even a slight underdog against that range and being so early in the tourney I'd flatcall and hope for a low flop to ship it (KK or AA would be a cooler then). Probably fold to A or K high flops and proper bets. We still got a stack left to get into many more spots.

If he's a losing player and we assume he is calling our shove with {TT+,AJ,AQ,AK} we have about 60/40 equity.. I'd say that's a correct call.

I listened to a podcast a few weeks ago where Shaun Deeb talked about taking risks early on, he said that he'd only get it in early being at least 60% favorite. That changes as the blinds get bigger etc. of course.

I there's any flaw in my logic please adress them but I think it's pretty logical. Please note I'm not taking into account this is a 1,20$ where most players are bad, a shove would almost always be correct here. Just trying to discuss what the correct move would be if villain was actually a thinking decent player.

[Nakamura]

As the 3bet range of a decent SnG player early on is probably tighter, and we only have about 50% equity at max vs that 3bet range {JJ+,AKs,AKo}. We are even a slight underdog against that range and being so early in the tourney I'd flatcall and hope for a low flop to ship it (KK or AA would be a cooler then). Probably fold to A or K high flops and proper bets. We still got a stack left to get into many more spots.

Flat calling is leaky IMO. I think around 40% of the time (???) you're going to see an A or K flop. Given your tight range, he completes destroys you.

Board: Kh 7d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.179% 70.39% 01.79% 117078 2970.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 27.821% 26.04% 01.79% 43302 2970.00 { QQ }

Assuming he leads out 80% of the the time, you have to fold 0.8*0.4 = 0.32 or 32% of the time. Of course that isn't the end of it because if it goes check-check, he may fire on subsequent streets. Let's say you win 50% of the time he doesn't fire on the flop. The value of this pot doesn't really matter as you both win an equal share.

The other 60% of the time the flop is undercards and you are marginally ahead of villain's range, but probably not enough to stack off.

Board: 3h 7d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.840% 44.41% 01.43% 92331 2970.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 54.160% 52.73% 01.43% 109629 2970.00 { QQ }

So 32% of the time you fold and lose 260 chips, 8% of the time you win 50% of X or a net 0 chips, and the other 60% of the time you make roughly 3000 chips * 0.53 or 1590 chips. Factor in ICM and it looks like calling is a losing play.

[taipan168]

As the 3bet range of a decent SnG player early on is probably tighter, and we only have about 50% equity at max vs that 3bet range {JJ+,AKs,AKo}. We are even a slight underdog against that range and being so early in the tourney I'd flatcall and hope for a low flop to ship it (KK or AA would be a cooler then)

I haven't run the ICM, but with all the dead chips in the pot, my guess is that we have at least the right price to shove over the 3-bet even against the range you nominate above.

[Extremophile]

you simply folded to a c-bet. this an excellent flop for QQ. if you put him on AA,KK you should have folded pre.

[Bradley]

As the 3bet range of a decent SnG player early on is probably tighter, and we only have about 50% equity at max vs that 3bet range {JJ+,AKs,AKo}. We are even a slight underdog against that range and being so early in the tourney I'd flatcall and hope for a low flop to ship it (KK or AA would be a cooler then). Probably fold to A or K high flops and proper bets. We still got a stack left to get into many more spots.

Flat calling is leaky IMO. I think around 40% of the time (???) you're going to see an A or K flop. Given your tight range, he completes destroys you.

Board: Kh 7d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.179% 70.39% 01.79% 117078 2970.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 27.821% 26.04% 01.79% 43302 2970.00 { QQ }

Assuming he leads out 80% of the the time, you have to fold 0.8*0.4 = 0.32 or 32% of the time. Of course that isn't the end of it because if it goes check-check, he may fire on subsequent streets. Let's say you win 50% of the time he doesn't fire on the flop. The value of this pot doesn't really matter as you both win an equal share.

The other 60% of the time the flop is undercards and you are marginally ahead of villain's range, but probably not enough to stack off.

Board: 3h 7d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.840% 44.41% 01.43% 92331 2970.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 54.160% 52.73% 01.43% 109629 2970.00 { QQ }

So 32% of the time you fold and lose 260 chips, 8% of the time you win 50% of X or a net 0 chips, and the other 60% of the time you make roughly 3000 chips * 0.53 or 1590 chips. Factor in ICM and it looks like calling is a losing play.

One of the reasons I love this forum ^^ nicely worked out. I'm now pretty sure shoving here is +EV yeah.

@ Tai: I didn't run it through Wiz either, because I can't haha. I just purchased the software, but I can't really get the custom games to work how it want them to.. mind explaining those to me? Thanks in advance

[Fortitude]

Naka thanks for the great equity math;
I was just wondering, with this logic, shouldn't I be more keen to four bet shove JJ than QQ because flatcalling just leaves me even more dominated because of three possible over cards?

Just curious,
what would JJ do in this situation?
am I going broke with JJ at 10/20?

[Nakamura]

Just curious,
what would JJ do in this situation?
am I going broke with JJ at 10/20?

It depends on what his raising ranges and calling ranges are, but against typical opponents I wouldn't. Of this all depends on ranges and reads, which is often typically don't have at this stage of the tournament.