AJs ITM gambling versus big stack ($16)

[Nakamura]

This is from an 18-man tourney. Villain has been running looser than the rest of the table about 35/30, but not really since we have been 4-handed. She has stolen our blinds a few times, but not done anything funky from UTG until now.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15+$1 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 50 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t4550)
BB (t4690)
UTG (t11130)
Hero (Button) (t6630)

Hero's M: 4.74

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
UTG bets t2400, Hero??

[reasons14]

Snap shove, UTG has a pretty big stack and is going to be opening fairly wide (espesh with the stats you have on him/her). You and the rest of the table have less then ten bb so you really cant ask for anything better then a top 10% hand 4 handed

[TLR]

You are 60% favorite if he is opening top 30%, 63% if he opens to 50% and 65% if he opens ATC

Assuming blinds always fold and villian always calls
Running ICM: If you call and lose you have 10% of the prize pool
if you fold you have 26% of the prize pool
if you call and win you have 33% of the prize pool
(26-10)/(33-10) = 69%
So assuming villian always call it is a fold regardless of his range.

However I think you have some fold equity here which is kind of hard to judge, so I think I would push here, but it is by no means an easy push

[reasons14]

It is a standard 3x open, of course he has some fold equity. ICM does a crappy job in analyzing short handed situations because it doesn't calculate future possibilities of everything.

If we call and lose, yes we have 10% of the prize pool.

If we fold we do not have 26% of the prize pool

If we call and win we do not have 33% of the prize pool

I really don't think you can factor in these percentages the way you did because if we call and and lose we are guaranteed 10% no matter what. This is not the case with the other two situations.

If we call and double up here we have a 12k stack and in the perfect spot to pwn the rest of the table. .

It's really important to not think in a vacuum here. Folding AJ in this given situation is like burning money.

[TLR]

Why do you think the numbers are wrong, do you think we have equity of more then 33% of the prize pool if you win ? The maximum you can have is 40% (first place) even if you double up you are not guaranteed first place

[reasons14]

yes our stack might be worth that much as far as $ ev goes but it is never going to finish out that way because all 4 of them are never going to play perfect/equilibrium/unexploitable.

Are you saying you fold here?

[TLR]

As I said I would push here, however I am saying that it is a close decision between push and fold here, and not a clear case of push