$20cubed, AA UTG vs BB defend facing river shove

[fjuanl]

Moved to the table about 5 hands ago unfortunately. OPR'd villain and he's basically a breakeven player, average buyin $88, 3k sample. Gimme some thoughts

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 22 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t10305)
MP2 (t44325)
MP3 (t19855)
CO (t4498)
Button (t6000)
SB (t5963)
BB (t23294)
Hero (UTG) (t44505)
UTG+1 (t12835)

Hero's M: 32.97

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets t1350, 7 folds, BB calls t750

Flop: (t3450) 5, 8, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1800, BB calls t1800

Turn: (t7050) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t3600, BB calls t3600

River: (t14250) 7 (2 players)
BB bets t16494 (All-In), Hero ???

[Extremophile]

So many missed draws and underpairs are possible here. If he played X7 type of hand you should be winning ın long term considering you are getting 1 to 2 pot odds on the river and how many times he will miss a 7 on the river.

[revolvingiris]

Sick value bet imo...Whats with the minraise pf? What would you do if villain lead out for 6k instead of shove?

[fjuanl]

2.25x what I like to do really late because people react no different than if it was 2.5x. Also nice to lose a little less chips when I plan to raise/fold into some reshove stacks

At the time I thought it was never a bluff because I look like definitely have an overpair. It was tough tho maybe he's value shoving stuff like JJ-KK as well as his boats. Then I had to figure out if 7x was even in his range preflop...which is impossible to know vs a random

[drmcboy]

id call. maybe increase bet size to try and get they money in easier, if he liked the flop the 3 isn't scaring him off.

[revolvingiris]

Villain would have to be terrible to show up with JJ-KK here I would think. I mean, villains was getting like 1:3 to make the call pf so Im sure this widens his range a bit.

I cant imagine villain thinking the river 7 was a good card to represent so you would fold AA. TBH it really doesnt look like you have a big pair here.

Im sure youve pokerstoved already but just wondering if your range for villain looked something like this:

Board: 5s 8d 7c 3c 7d

Hand 0: 66.168% { AA }
Hand 1: 33.832% { AhAs, KK-55, AQs+, T9s, 96s+, 64s+, AQo+, T9o, 96o+, 64o+ }

[fjuanl]

I figured that since his results are not awful for a high average buyin (and a big sample size), he would have realized by now that bluffing in situations like this vs a random is spew.

Board: 5s 8d 7c 3c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.667% 60.00% 01.67% 18 0.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 38.333% 36.67% 01.67% 11 0.50 { JJ+, 88-77, 55, 87s, 76s }

99-TT not in there because I expect most people to bluff catch and not go for insanely thin value and almost turning your hand into a bluff

Just what I was thinking...sometimes I will think about my range too much when I try to hand read. Thinking about my range if I were villain scares me because I would only have the nuts

[revolvingiris]

You think he shows up as a bluff here 0% of the time?

[fjuanl]

Once he check/calls twice his range narrows to mostly made hands. The only draw I see him having on the turn is T9. That 7 is basically a blank and just about the worst river to decide to bluff on. He shouldn't be doubting the strength of my hand since I raised UTG and bet flop and a harmless blank turn. He could be value shoving hands I'm beating though

[revolvingiris]

Idk man, seems like he was getting pretty good implied from the beginning? At my buy in level I would not be shocked to see villain show up with either huge hands or missed draws.

[baudib]

I can't read this as hero having a big hand at all to be honest. Looks like you had missed everything too.