AKs hits nut flush draw on flop; opponent bets out

[Fortitude]

I raised AKs with one limper. I did not cbet this flop because I don't like cbetting against two opponents and there is also the fact that people at this level call raises with a lot of hands; hands that could hit this range well. Should I cbet here with potentially 15 outs (A, K, any club)?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (10 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1930)
Button (t1490)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1300)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1300)
UTG+2 (t1500)
Hero (MP1) (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, 1 fold, Hero bets t100, 1 fold, MP3 calls t100, CO calls t100, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls t80

Flop: (t430) 9, 2, 7 (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets t400, 2 folds, Hero folds

Total pot: t430

[drmcboy]

you should more or less never fold this hand on the flop. You are ahead of QQ! Even vs A9 where you have some dirty outs you are 44%.

Usually I would bet out, but if you think it likely someone else will bet CRAI is the best option, you may fold out 9x and almost certainly fold worse.

[reasons14]

Number of outs multiplied times 4 on the flop= your equity

don't fold











/thread

[taipan168]

As drmcboy said, either lead out or check-raise all-in if you are sure that one of the three opps will bet. Folding is the worst option here - if you don't already have it, download Pokerstove and play with some potential hand ranges that MP3 might have to see how much equity you have.

The only hands you have less than ~50% equity against are sets and two pair (and even against those you're about 25-30%) and you just can't put MP3 on those hands exclusively.

[Fortitude]

Number of outs multiplied times 4 on the flop= your equity

don't fold











/thread

thats assuming he doesnt have a set and that hitting an A or K would give me the best hand

[reasons14]

thats assuming he doesnt have a set and that hitting an A or K would give me the best hand

neat

[Extremophile]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_poker_hands

[taipan168]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_poker_hands

neat

These are not helpful replies! Please try to keep comments constructive

[reasons14]

These are not helpful replies! Please try to keep comments constructive

I'm sure most people with a normal reading comprehension skills can read between the lines and actually assess that my comment meant so much more then "neat"

[Extremophile]

Sorry, I didn't mean to be rude. The reason i posted the wiki link is that it really helped me a lot and when I first learnt poker last year and we should count the outs for making a flush which beats a set.

[GatorJH]

thats assuming he doesnt have a set and that hitting an A or K would give me the best hand

You shouldn't be making your decision based on the best hand he could have, but an entire rang of hands. Yes villain could have a set here and if he does that is just bad luck (unless you hit your flush then it becomes WOOT WOOT), but there are MANY more hands in his range than sets and you are a favorite to win this hand against that entire range.

[reasons14]

You shouldn't be making your decision based on the best hand he could have, but an entire rang of hands. Yes villain could have a set here and if he does that is just bad luck (unless you hit your flush then it becomes WOOT WOOT), but there are MANY more hands in his range than sets and you are a favorite to win this hand against that entire range.

Yeah I agree with this.

So I guess what you just described in your first part would be called "reverse chinese hand reading"? lol

[Raoni_Poker]

His bet does not necessarily means a hand at all, he has position. I think some possibilities might be happening:
1) He bets with position and has nothing here. He'd fold if you lead the betting or if you check raise him.
2) He has something (most likely a set or a high PP, given the board) and is protecting his hand against possible draws. If he has a set and you check raise him your flush draw is obvious. Nobody would slowplay a set in this board, so...he would call you and you're an underdog. In the worst scenario (against a set), you're 1:3 underdog.
3) He is semi-bluffing a draw...as you should have done (dont think is the case).

This hand is much easier to play when you bet first. If he shoves over you, he probably has a set or a higher pair (given the board). Calling this shove is not easy, but you can call it if you think he would shove JJ-AA (read dependent).

[taipan168]

This hand is much easier to play when you bet first. If he shoves over you, he probably has a set or a higher pair (given the board). Calling this shove is not easy, but you can call it if you think he would shove JJ-AA (read dependent).

If I was MP3, I shove over a bet pretty much 100% of the time if I have a TT-JJ overpair (I'd 3-bet QQ+ preflop).

[smokinwillaa]

I do the same overbet

[Olddog21]

If I have AKc....with two on the flop....I would go with the brunette in the green tank top!

[Poker Orifice]

His bet does not necessarily means a hand at all, he has position. I think some possibilities might be happening:
1) He bets with position and has nothing here. He'd fold if you lead the betting or if you check raise him.
2) He has something (most likely a set or a high PP, given the board) and is protecting his hand against possible draws. If he has a set and you check raise him your flush draw is obvious. Nobody would slowplay a set in this board, so...he would call you and you're an underdog. In the worst scenario (against a set), you're 1:3 underdog.
3) He is semi-bluffing a draw...as you should have done (dont think is the case).

This hand is much easier to play when you bet first. If he shoves over you, he probably has a set or a higher pair (given the board). Calling this shove is not easy, but you can call it if you think he would shove JJ-AA (read dependent).

You'd even consider MP3 to be flatting w AA KK QQ here preflop??
You think he'd be leading out 4/5th POT, for 1/3 his stack w air, in a 5-way pot w a flop that potentially hits limping ranges?? (I'd suggest not using your own thinking/style of play as a benchmark for other's play).

Personally I think you've got the ideal situation here for getting it A.I. I mean isn't this why we've checked the flop in hopes of someone leading out (esp. someon in LP, where there hasn't been any interest shown so far). Why did we check in the first place? (I would think for a situation just like this one here so we can get it A.I.)

[Random_Hero]

im interested in improving my ability to put villains on ranges. what ranges do you put villains on in this hand at each stage of the betting? pre flop and flop?

please also explain reasons for the ranges you pick...

thnaks

[99VPIP]

Its not fun, but I think this is a spot where you should bet 3/4ths pot on the flop and shove any turn. If you have uber aggro read on MP3, CR is fine. Just try not to get too results oriented about it if you get called and miss your draws.

All imo.