To lead or not to lead

[allabout]

Villian is a wonderful fish who has been running pretty hot. He's 87/17 over 75ish hands. So do I just stick to the plan and let him bluff it off or do I lead in case he has like an overpair or a worse Q although he's probably betting a Q.

Oh, the original raiser is 28/15, so is flat good in this spot pre?

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



Button ($11.20)
Hero (SB) ($108.55)
BB ($35.53)
UTG ($107.20)
UTG+1 ($93.30)
MP1 ($75.59)
MP2 ($175.09)
MP3 ($90.93)
CO ($21.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button bets $2, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.50) Q, 8, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $11, 1 fold, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($28.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero does what?

[BankItDrew]

keep up the passiveness unless villain checks turn.

[allabout]

Ok so same on the river then...?

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



Button ($11.20)
Hero (SB) ($108.55)
BB ($35.53)
UTG ($107.20)
UTG+1 ($93.30)
MP1 ($75.59)
MP2 ($175.09)
MP3 ($90.93)
CO ($21.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button bets $2, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.50) Q, 8, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $11, 1 fold, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($28.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $32.50, Hero calls $32.50

River: ($93.50) Q (2 players)
Hero

[bigspenda73]

you really need to remove that damn gif yo, it gives away the hand

river is interesting, I think checking can be good but in the heat of the moment I see myself jamming.

[BankItDrew]

Yeah, villain doesn't think you have a a Queen yet, if you bet - he will think you have a boat and fold.

Check if you know what's good for ya.

easiest check ever, his calling range is probably Qx and 8x, and his shoving range is that+waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more

[texa8]

the thing that makes me think a check is good on the river is the overbet on the turn like he reeeeally wants you to fold.

as such its a pretty good river for him to continue that line if he doesnt see you with a Q given your passive line and river check.

[badgers]

He's vbetting with worse often on the flop, turn and probably river too. His vbetting range is almost the same as his calling range if you lead, and we can let him bluff with T5o obv.

Gif is cool, but counterproductive to the thread if it gives away results.