Line check: chip leader re-raised by short nit

[RockyMoose]

I need a line check here . . . I played very tight at first, had doubled up recently and was more active the last few rounds. Button is a nit, but so is everyone at the table.

1. Is my opening raise ok? I think I need to work on bet sizing. 2.5BB had been winning blinds at this tight table.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t2770)
Hero (UTG) (t4020)
MP (t3170)
Button (t1479)
SB (t2061)

Hero's M: 13.40

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, A
Hero bets t550, 1 fold, Button raises to t1479 (All-In), 2 folds

2. Hero? Pot is 2329 and it costs 929 to call.

I should have raised more when I opened, I think.

[Nakamura]

If you play the hand, make it 500 to go pre-flop. At a table full of nits, this should be enough to win the hand pre-flop most times.

As played Equity of folding is 3470 chips or 24.2%

Equity of calling = (Pr(you win the hand))(Equity after you win) + (Pr(you lose the hand))(Equity after you lose))

Hero has 5799 chips if he wins or 34.4% of the tournament equity, Hero has 2541 chips or 19.2% of the equity if he loses. Assuming villain raises his top 10% of hands here (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo) , Hero is 32% to win.

Thus the Equity of calling = 0.32*0.344 + 0.68*0.192 = 0.241 or 24.1%. This obviously makes the hand a marginal fold, unless you think he's raising wider.

Final thought ... I rounded the figures slightly, but I'm too tired to go back and rework the figures. This might make a small difference to the call/fold suggestion.

[RockyMoose]

Nak, thanks for the math. I screwed up my play of this hand. If I had raised more preflop, the odds to call his shove would have been favorable, but I don't need to get involved in a big hand here, so that's not optimal.

If I had raised less, folding to his shove would have been easier to calculate -- the pot odds would have been obviously unfavorable.

As played, I made a lousy opening raise, eh? Bet sizing, indeed.

[TLR]

I think it is an auto call considering the odds you are getting, and given that button has to be involved in a hand pretty soon

[RockyMoose]

In the 15 seconds I had to decide, my thinking was: "pot odds are big, but my hand is not." I called. Villain turned over KK, but I sucked out to win the hand.

[SushiWizard]

as played its a call for me. The price is just right, plus you are chip leader with a chance to knock one more person out. Umm the utg raise with A8s though i think is marginal, particularly with 3 semi short stacks left to act behind you. Youre the chip leader, 2 spots from the money, you dont need to expose yourself to this situation right now. And its not as if you want action with the hand, so if your intent is to steal why not wait for a better spot? Although you did say the table was nitty. Was the raise Profitable? Probably. Marginal? Definately.