100NL: blind defense leaks

I'm finding that I have trouble defending blinds and that I suck at playing OOP, I play too passively and seem to lose money with hands like AJo/KQo

Villain is 46/37/16.4 (3b) with an AF of 5.2 and cbet flop of 92%

So how about my peel on the flop and the subsequent lack of bruff on the river because I don't fold anything?

Should even peel with overs on the flop OOP? Or is this a "c/f always" spot? Can we c/r with our current holdings?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($100)
Button ($229.40)
SB ($118.90)
Hero (BB) ($105.60)
UTG ($105.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
2 folds, Button bets $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 4, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($17.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5, Hero folds

Total pot: $17.50 | Rake: $0.85

[griffey24]

What's villains button steal/fold to 3bet?

I'd 3bet this hand a fair bit depending on villain. I don't mind how you played it, especially since a lot of players will barrel turn Q and Kx.

As played, I think I'd lead river often to get him off junk Ax hands, unless he's the type that will hero call everything there given that hearts missed.

(edit: just noticed the 7 paired on turn, I think ppl will hero call this river too much, so just c/f)

he has 100% steal unopened from the button, 90/90
57% fold vs. 3b, 43% call

I agree about the two pair boards, it's perfect to vbet 55 small and hope to get called by Ax or 4x

[mixchange]

vs. 100% steal unopened OTB:

- definitely be willing to 3bet marginal hands vs.him
- call a lot of hands that do well on flops and will outkick him
- check raise a lot of boards, especially if you have overs,a gutter, any draw etc.

I like a c/r here vs player that is opening 100%


his fold to 3bet is kinda irrelevent and kinda not, it shows his general tendency but really isnt a significant stat that you can rely on in this blind spot.

well problem with c/ring might be him putting us on draws and calling with a really marginal hand and then we might have to try to rep 65 or hearts to continue our bluff and sometimes run into those hands that are part of his b/c range

I think if we're planning on c/ring flops that don't really hit our range might as well 3b pre when we still have a pretty hand

[Alexos]

kind of surprised at the answers ^^^

I would 3bet pre vs this guy most of the time. But I don't see any better option on the flop other than FOLD!

Your flop call is ridiculously bad.

kind of surprised at the answers ^^^

I would 3bet pre vs this guy most of the time. But I don't see any better option on the flop other than FOLD!

Your flop call is ridiculously bad.

I agree with you, although I'm not sure it's ridiculously bad, maybe just plain bad ;__;

[BigLRIP]

I'm 3-betting this hand preflop vs villain everytime, as well as AJo. If he's folding too much its easy to adjust, but I doubt this player folds to 3 bets very much (obviously a very broad statement, but quite true in my experience).

[mixchange]

kind of surprised at the answers ^^^

I would 3bet pre vs this guy most of the time. But I don't see any better option on the flop other than FOLD!

Your flop call is ridiculously bad.

Ya flop call is not how I'd do it. I don't mind a flat and flop c/r though. 3betting pre is fine too.

However, 3betting pre vs. someone who opens 100% seems like a waste of KQ to me, its very playable in a OOP flatting range compared to a lot of hands. since he has to fold to our 3bets so much, I probably 3bet him with a lot of garbage until he catches on and meanwhile flat a lot of "playable" hands that dominate a lot of his garbage.

[mixchange]

well problem with c/ring might be him putting us on draws and calling with a really marginal hand and then we might have to try to rep 65 or hearts to continue our bluff and sometimes run into those hands that are part of his b/c range

There's always an "oh no what if" of c/ring without the nuts, but if you think they fold enough its fine. I think his range is weak enough opening 100% of buttons that vs. a BB flatting range and flop c/r and turn barrel he has to fold a lot of his opening range. Plus, we spike a K or Q roughly 1/4 of the time by river.

Calling flop is the worst option, because sooooo often you get a check behind on turn from a hand with some draw or showdown value and you're fucked by the river.

I think if we're planning on c/ring flops that don't really hit our range might as well 3b pre when we still have a pretty hand

I don't expect a villain with his stats to be a particularly good hand-reader. His 100% unopened his range is so wide he can rarely ever take 2 barrel heat. On top of it his 92% cbet makes his cbetting range suspect and full of air and weak hands. c/f or c/r if you flat here, 3bet pre fine too.

in one thread you say

you seem to do a lot of stuff assuming your villains' can't hand read that well or don't have the balls to do "X".

and here you say

I don't expect a villain with his stats to be a particularly good hand-reader.

god damn it I can never win

[griffey24]

Your flop call is ridiculously bad.

I don't think its too bad. I'd rather have a good A high obviously (AJ or something) but KQ is ahead of a lot of what is seemingly a wide button opening range. A lot of players will shut down on the turn on this type of board and we can steal on river and people will bluff the turn cards that actually help us.

If he's the type that will just barrel all turns its obviously very bad, but if he's the type to play predictably once called on a low board I don't mind it.

[TreNd]

From villians play we can definately put him on a marginal made hand/air almost all the time, so how about overbetting the pot on the river basically repping a missed check raise on the turn. I cant see him calling with his marginal hand ever unless you have a read he is a station.

[griffey24]

From villians play we can definately put him on a marginal made hand/air almost all the time, so how about overbetting the pot on the river basically repping a missed check raise on the turn. I cant see him calling with his marginal hand ever unless you have a read he is a station.

Overbetting with a hand like 66 could be good on the river, cause the overbet looks bluffy. The last thing we want to do in a spot where an overbet is polarized between air or nuts, is actually have air.

Just because you overbet, doesn't mean people can't call with A-high.

[TreNd]

If he calls the overbet with A high or some other air/marginal hand then just overbet for value on the river vs this villian everytime you have a solid made hand.

griffey, that's not true, if say we overbet pot with nuts or air
if we have 0% air he can fold every time if he knows we overbet only for value

now that's not a problem for me because I overbet only for value and still get calls

but in a game-theoretic sense if we're in this kind of situation if we psb it we can bluff 1/3 of the time and bet 2/3 of the time
then if he calls every time he pays off 2/3 of our vbets and we give him 1/3 of our bluffs and we basically win 1/3 psb every time we play
if he folds every time we get to bag our 1/3 bluffs so we win 1/3 psb either way
so no matter his calling frequency we win 1/3 psb with a PSB bet on the river with a ratio of 1/3 bluff 2/3 value


BUT if we go 2x psb
let's use the formula:
bluffs * psb = 2 psb * value bets - 2 psb * bluffs
3 bluffs = 2 value bets
bluffs = 2/3 value bets

so we can bluff 40% and vbet 60% of the time
if he calls every time we win 1.2 psb with value and lose .8 with bluffs which gives us a profit of .4 psb
if he folds every time we pick up .4 psb through the virtue of bluffing

so you can see that when you overbet you can put in more bluffs if your range is polarized and it is unexploitable to bluff a certain amount
never bluffing is exploitable

[mixchange]

in one thread you say

you seem to do a lot of stuff assuming your villains' can't hand read that well or don't have the balls to do "X".

and here you say

I don't expect a villain with his stats to be a particularly good hand-reader.

god damn it I can never win

Well, consider the situations in your words:

This thread: 46/37/16.4
Other thread: 23/16/3.7 (3b) ABC tag

Who do you think is more likely to be a poor hand reader and make mistakes? Obvi the 46/37/16.4 guy. Not that he couldn't be a great player, its just very unlikely.

Definitely not trying to be annoying, just trying to be helpful

[bigspenda73]

lead ever cross your mind?

[noble007]

It's hard to lose money with AJ/KQ out of the blinds vs. a guy with these stats.

1. You could 3B shove AJ & show a profit here pre-flop. (not that u would)

2. If he CBs alot you can just play hit to win and CR when you hit TP
(With the intention of stacking off) & still always show a profit.

Obv. we also raise GS+ and good flops to add to this & take better more EV lines like calling down instead if he loves to barrel etc.

Anyway point is hard to lose with these hands vs. guy who abuses button too much

lead ever cross your mind?

well we do have a stronger range and we rep mid pair type of hand so it's a good idea

we'll fold overs to a raise, but call with like 7x or 66+