100NL playing flop/turn with nits

guy is a 17/15 nit

so I didn't raise flop because he might fold his aces afraid of da 33 setminan him but turn is super ugly
I convince myself he has KQ in his range and some AJ/AT

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($98)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
UTG ($192.45)
MP ($171.85)
Hero (CO) ($112.05)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
UTG calls $1, MP bets $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($12.50) 3, Q, A (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $9, Hero calls $9, 2 folds

Turn: ($30.50) K (2 players)
MP bets $25, Hero ?

[griffey24]

(edit: deleted post as per request)
(double edit: why are your hands always versus nits?? .. seriously.)

edited for clarity
why are they against nits? because 100NL is teaming with them

[Thee One]

3-bet pre - I hate flatting AQ pre, you tend to get into spots post where you doubt/misjudge the strength of your hand. If you don't flop a monster against the nit, do you toss AQ? If so, why are you calling with it pre?

How can you not raise this flop? It's unlikely that the nit has a heart draw but there are still two ops behind you, you're giving them great odds to draw to the 3rd heart.

The turn card sucks, fold. I don't think he has middle-pair here often enough to make calling this profitable.

[Warpe]

3-bet pre, obv.

[kmind]

Last two posts levels?

[bigspenda73]

AJ/AT seems extremely optimistic against the described opponent/bet-sizing.

just go ahead and fold and tell people you had like A8s

[Warpe]

Last two posts levels?

srsly?

[kmind]

Are you 3betting for value or a bluff?

[kmind]

And yeah seems like a fold now.

[Dragon Slayer]

What about UTG? What kind of player was he? Is the nit capable of ISOing a really bad player? A lot of times I treat MB Pre as limps and still ISO them kinda light.
And for the people that say 3 BET Pre. As a bluff or for Value?

I can see 3bing pre
and it's not as a bluff or for value
it's to make him relinquish his equity from the pot with a pair or suited connector (that we're like a flip against) and to fold to a 4b
so basically it's a pbet

this way we can be semi-confident about felting top pair unless he slowplays pre and flats QQ+ or AK and we can rep that range post-flop and he can't

[Andypandy]

I would rarely 3-bet pre, often reraise flop and call turn and reev. river as played.

[griffey24]

I would rarely 3-bet pre, often reraise flop and call turn and reev. river as played.

[daven]

raise flop, so many reasons. Fold turn as played.

[Da GOAT]

tbh id be so not down with raising flop, so many reasons not too imo.

id call turn and reval river

[Luke999]

Don't like 3 betting pre vs described villan.
I think I almost always raise the flop, it's unlikely villan has QQ/AA for obvious reason (though obviously still possible). Would he raise or flat 33 when UTG limps?
I'd raise this flop because he often continues with a hand like AK. The problem with flatting is that if we think he folds his Aces to a flop raise, then if a heart or broadway card hits then surely he will fold when he can put you on a flush/straight/slowplayed set.
A lot of cards can kill our value if he really is that tight.

When we raise the flop we can barrel profitably when non hearts come also, people love to put other people on draws, would he ever raise flop if he suspected we have a draw?

[Da GOAT]

imo we should flat all our hands on flop, we never bluff raise here and AQ is a dog when we stack off.

[Alexos]

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

[IAGTTAYM]

I'd generally play it the same as you preflop, flop and then I'd call the turn against described 100nl villain.

I have a few theoretical questions regarding the situation. First lets assume that the villain (a reg) who isolated was someone that you would consider raising the flop against, for w/e reason:

1. If we didn't have Ah, and instead had Ac or Ad, would that make you more or less likely to raise the flop?

2. If the board was slightly different, lets say AhQx3h, would you be more likely to raise the flop with AQ?

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

[d0zer]

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

Do you actually know this from observation or are you assuming this from his preflop stats

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

Do you actually know this from observation or are you assuming this from his preflop stats

Well this is 100NL and people fold top pair to a flop raise

[AnTman_69]

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

Do you actually know this from observation or are you assuming this from his preflop stats

Well this is 100NL and people fold top pair to a flop raise

regs at 100nl never flod when i bluff raise a flop

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

Do you actually know this from observation or are you assuming this from his preflop stats

Well this is 100NL and people fold top pair to a flop raise

regs at 100nl never flod when i bluff raise a flop

no way I c/r about every flop that hits my range and they fold even if they suspect I do this

[Ravageur]

pf call seems standard, but yes you have to raise this flop. So draw heavy and nits WILL stack off with ak and they will call with their draws etc..

he doesn't have any draws because we have the :Ah: so at best he has a gutshot

[minSim]

Who is he? You have 2 people left behind you on the flop that definately have a lot of SC's in their range. This is soo much a flop raise.

[griffey24]

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

So what exactly is your plan when calling AQ preflop to a nit?

You can't stack him when you flop two pair. You won't be comfortable calling down barrels on an AQxKx board, let alone a Axx board or even Qxx board.

So you're going to be bluff raising him with AQ on a low board to offset this? This doesn't seem too great either, given I'm not really sure he'll find an overpair fold.

yea wtf raise flop, stack dat nits AK

there is about 0% chance he will play for stacks with just one pair?

So what exactly is your plan when calling AQ preflop to a nit?

You can't stack him when you flop two pair. You won't be comfortable calling down barrels on an AQxKx board, let alone a Axx board or even Qxx board.

So you're going to be bluff raising him with AQ on a low board to offset this? This doesn't seem too great either, given I'm not really sure he'll find an overpair fold.

call two streets when I flop top pair and fold river
call three streets with AQx flops
also call two streets with a set and ship river

am I doin' it wrong?

[Ravageur]

you're right that the Ah discounts his draws, but you have two people behind you when you just call the flop....so I still think a raise is best for both value and to get it in vs the ppl behind you on the flop.

[Alexos]

yea griffeys right.. might as well fold preflop cuz your postflop plan sucks unless u flop AAQ then u can call three barrels and win the minimum

[Luke999]

100NL regs fold top pair to a flop raise.
???
wat

Anyway planning to call 2 streets and fold to a river bet or call 3 streets with top 2 is just silly. May as well fold pre.

Luke: I mean nit regs
normal regs usually call the c/r and fold turn

[Im_new]

Here is a relevant question: he's a nit, but what is his aggression factor? If it is high, I call turn. If it isn't, i raise the flop.

and since when is 17/15 a nit? I'm used to the <15/<10 guys.

nit is my post-flop read

thanks guys! I think I just got 1ptbb/100 bigger winrar

villain is jesus lestor, biggest nit ever

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($108.40)
MP ($49.20)
CO ($50.15)
Button ($110.15)
SB ($175.40)
Hero (BB) ($214.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
4 folds, SB bets $4, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8) Q, K, 2 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $14, SB calls $9

Turn: ($36) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $29, SB calls $29

River: ($94) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $167.45 (All-In), SB calls $128.40 (All-In)

Total pot: $350.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB mucked J, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Hero had K, Q (full house, Kings over Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $347.80

[Luke999]

Even nits don't fold top pair nowadays

[d0zer]

I knew I wasn't crazy to think that even nits don't fold top pair to a flop raise... nice overbet shove btw.

[IowaSkinsFan]

raise the flop, as played flat turn.

I knew I wasn't crazy to think that even nits don't fold top pair to a flop raise... nice overbet shove btw.

I thought he'd have exactly trips and he wouldn't fold

[Sprayed]

raise the flop, as played flat turn.

This is for the AQ hand? Can you elaborate a little more? There are mixed suggestions in this thread. It would be nice to hear why you are saying to raise the flop. Thx

raise flop for value lidog