live satellite, final table with 77

[donkbee]

$110+$10 live satellite to $1100 event of the BC Poker Championships. 4 seats, 5th pays ~$400. Final table 10-handed.

Blinds are 600/1200 and I have ~25k chips. There is one big stack with 35-40k and then 3 others with about the same stack as me (15-20bb). There are probably 3 others with ~10bb and then 3 shorties <10bb.

UTG folds and UTG+1 shoves for 4.1k chips. I am UTG+2 with 77. 2 people with similar stacks are behind me as well as the big stack (in the SB). What's the best play here?

[Extremophile]

A min-raise would have discourage the other people but, if they have a real hand and shove (or even call) we are in trouble. Same is true for a flat call. Considering 5 places paid and having a good chip position, this should be a fold imo.

[revolvingiris]

Its gross depending on how aggro the other players at the table are behind you. I'm guessing since its a live tourney these people don't know how to do anything.

I would actually push here being you cant fold to the money. The rest of the players at your stack size would be scared to call and the big stack wont call off half of their stack unless they have a really good hand.

FTW!!

[drmcboy]

I'd probably open fold and would fold for sure here.

[mcatdog]

yeah anything but folding is really bad, I'd probably fold even in a regular tournament too

[revolvingiris]

You guys do realize that courtie has 20bb, 5th pays, and there are 10 people left? How again is she supposed to fold this?

[bikes]

This is a really easy fold imo

[drmcboy]

You guys do realize that courtie has 20bb, 5th pays, and there are 10 people left? How again is she supposed to fold this?

you aren't a big favorite vs any range for the shorty. Now add in that over half the table is still to act and may over call with top 5-10%. You are flipping or dead vs that entire range. winning that pots gets us a non 100% equity increase while losing gets us a 100% equity loss.

I don't really get how you want to (almost) fold QQ in the other thread but want to play here, what advantages does this situation have over that?

[revolvingiris]

The QQ was an ICM situation that I came across and found it interesting. Sorry for posting a theoretical question.

And according to her post there is only 1 stack that can stack her. Otherwise its all a bunch of mid stacks that are scared. From what I have come to understand is that if she won this hand. She would then be able to apply pressure to the other medium stacks and pick up more chips stealing blinds etc.

If the goal in tourneys is to gain an edge on the other players. Then what better way than having a chip stack that covers them?

I get what you guys are saying. 77 isn't the nuts nor should it be played like it. However, she cant fold to the money so somewhere she has to make a stand. She has a chance to add 25% to her stack and if she loses then she still has enough chips to contend (unlike the QQ hand).

Its not that I find 77 difficult to fold. I just don't see the difference between this play and a blind steal.

[mcatdog]

Its not that I find 77 difficult to fold. I just don't see the difference between this play and a blind steal.

The difference is your risk/reward is way worse. With a standard blind-steal you are risking 3K and you win 3K if everyone behind you folds. Here you are risking 4K and if everyone else folds you only win 2K (you have maybe 55% equity in a heads-up pot so you get back 6K from the 4K you invested).

[revolvingiris]

The total pot before Courtie's call would be roughly 7k (with antes?). So shes getting 37% to make the call. Total pot if she calls is 11100...55% back would be 6105 (I'm guessing this is the 6k your talking about?).

From my ICM calcs she needs to win 45.4% of the time to make the call. I'm sure there is also added equity from her skill ability with a larger chip stack and the fact that she will have a chip lead on everyone -1 player. It may be a higher variance play but I don't see a call as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

If there is a player to act after her who is aggressive or likes to call a ton then I would absolutely agree with a fold here. I can also see the argument for it being a fold because of the BB getting 4-1. But if the table to act is tight and would only call a shove from her with top 5%. Then I think a shove would be fine.

Edit: Another thing I just thought of that is rather obvious. A blind steal isn't going to win all the time either.
6000*.50=3k
6000*.75=4.5k
So the 77 on average will net more chips won.

[drmcboy]

you can't just ignore over calls when you do the math. you're also ignoring post flop betting.

[revolvingiris]

Idk how to add over calls into the equation. But I guess I was mainly talking about Courtie shoving over vs a call.

[nuklearwintr]

you have too many people behind you and too few bb's to play this. About the only thing you could do is shove, but with so many people behind you it really depends on how tight you think the other players are.

Since it's still 10-handed and there are several short stacks left I think you should just sigh and fold this. 99 is very close, and I think 10-10+ is definitely an iso-shove.

Your position is so wretched here though that you should not risk 4.1k especially with the blinds going through you soon. Keep your chips and wait for a better spot.