Big bad fold or standard in Wcoop

[Ravageur]

It's late at night and i'm exhausted so not gonna take time to convert this sry.

Is there any other way to play this? How about c/call flop?

PokerStars Game #33090075655: Tournament #200909045, $5000+$200 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (150/300) - 2009/09/20 21:51:52 ET
Table '200909045 208' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Ravageur (54730 in chips)
Seat 2: LION8HART (44199 in chips)
Seat 3: glight (22268 in chips)
Seat 4: gbmantis (55591 in chips)
Seat 5: Akaperion (25754 in chips)
Seat 6: kenny05 (11166 in chips)
Seat 7: matt1269 (14282 in chips)
Seat 8: DF_Newb (14091 in chips)
Seat 9: 0120 (11588 in chips)
Ravageur: posts the ante 40
LION8HART: posts the ante 40
glight: posts the ante 40
gbmantis: posts the ante 40
Akaperion: posts the ante 40
kenny05: posts the ante 40
matt1269: posts the ante 40
DF_Newb: posts the ante 40
0120: posts the ante 40
gbmantis: posts small blind 150
Akaperion: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ravageur [Qd Kd]
matt1269 said, "mbn"
kenny05: folds
matt1269: folds
matt1269 said, "AQ+ every other hand"
matt1269 said, "tough life eh"
gbmantis said, "yeah its been that way the whole tourney"
gbmantis said, "for sure"
DF_Newb: raises 500 to 800
0120: folds
Ravageur: raises 1300 to 2100
LION8HART: calls 2100
glight: folds
gbmantis: folds
Akaperion: folds
DF_Newb: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c 8d 6d]
matt1269 said, "haha not a bad life"
matt1269 said, "gl"
gbmantis said, "gl"
Ravageur: bets 2750
LION8HART: raises 4309 to 7059
Ravageur: calls 4309
*** TURN *** [6c 8d 6d] [Qh]
Ravageur: checks
LION8HART: bets 12000
kenny05 is sitting out
Ravageur: folds
Uncalled bet (12000) returned to LION8HART
LION8HART collected 19928 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19928 | Rake 0
Board [6c 8d 6d Qh]
Seat 1: Ravageur folded on the Turn
Seat 2: LION8HART collected (19928)
Seat 3: glight (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: gbmantis (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Akaperion (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: kenny05 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: matt1269 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: DF_Newb folded before Flop
Seat 9: 0120 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Ravageur]

also for reference....this is relatively early in tournament and ppl are v very nitty generally. Lionhart hadn't been out of line up until now and I had been relatively straightforward as well, showing down good hands to win midsize pots up until now.

[mcatdog]

I would call preflop but I don't hate 3-betting, I do hate your c-bet though. I mean this guy has a big pair like always, especially given reads. With you having the Q and K blockers, when he cold-calls the 3-bet AA is def his most likely hand. He's never going to fold and you're often going to get raised off your hand just like you did. Just check-call and let him valuetown himself if you get there.

[Im_new]

Why call the re-raise on the flop if we're going to fold when we improve on the turn?

[Penneywize]

Well, I should preface this post by saying Ravageur's probably way better than I am since I don't play no fuckin' $5k buy-in tournaments ever.

Anyhow, my worthless 2c:

Preflop: Do we necessarily love the re-raise here (I assume your plan was to iso), and is calling out of the question with so many to act behind?

Flop: I am probably c-betting here too, knowing myself. However I think a fold is in order when faced with this raise. As played it is fairly certain that we are behind at this point, and if we're under the assumption of being up against a big pocket pair, we're basically hoping for our flush to pull through. 1.6:1 pot odds aren't too sexy in that regard

Turn: Good fold

[Ravageur]

preflop rr was standard, i should've stated in OP that the initial raiser was really the only glaring weakpoint at the table. So the rr was an ISO yes. I agree I messed up the flop. When he flatted pre, i think that his range is 10s+ and then when he raises the flop it seems pretty polarized towards AA. I call flop raise to make a flush, I pick up 2 more outs on the turn but think i'm still behind and fold. If I have 11 outs on the turn I still might be getting odds to call which is why the turn might be a call? I suck at math.

Anyway. Thanks for your inputs.

[Ravageur]

Why call the re-raise on the flop if we're going to fold when we improve on the turn?

because i don't think we improved enough....doesn't he check behind 1010 jj here on turn? I feel as though my line is relatively strong and he's not valuetowning himself much here on the turn or bluffing.

[chardrian]

QKs plays great multiway so there is no need to 3-bet to iso. And 3-betting makes things awkward if/when he calls since he has 40-50 BBs.

postflop I concur w/mcat - I turn into a station here since I don't think I have any real fold equity.

[revolvingiris]

Am I the only one who calls this down even if unimproved on river? What is villains bet sizing saying? All I see is please don't call anymore. Unless he is trying to level you?

[chardrian]

if you call turn you have to call an all-in on the river. If you can put 99-JJ in your opp's range it's not a horrible line to take.

[Im_new]

Why call the re-raise on the flop if we're going to fold when we improve on the turn?

because i don't think we improved enough....doesn't he check behind 1010 jj here on turn? I feel as though my line is relatively strong and he's not valuetowning himself much here on the turn or bluffing.

gotcha. Lets say that you catch a diamond. How much value are we really going to get out of his range? (I'm not asking this to interrogate or patronize. I'm sincerely curious how we calculate our true implied odds on the turn and river.)

[mcatdog]

Am I the only one who calls this down even if unimproved on river? What is villains bet sizing saying? All I see is please don't call anymore. Unless he is trying to level you?

Please explain how his betsizing looks like he wants us to fold. If he has AA or KK then betting less than this would be pretty terrible given that a large part of Ravageur's range is flush draws. Also I completely disagree with chardrian, we absolutely do not need to call river if we call turn.

[chardrian]

I don't see how we can justify calling the turn here only to catch one of 11 (hopeful) outs. We have to hope that he has 99-JJ/AK/something stupid like AdJd to call the turn. And if we are putting these in his range, then I don't see how we can justify a fold getting more than 2:1 on the river.

Personally I am not calling a turn here to fold the river. Maybe that's too much of my limit upbringing coming through, but I think the decision here to make is solely on the turn.

[mcatdog]

I wouldn't call the turn either but the logic behind calling the turn would be that sometimes we get there and sometimes we already have the best hand and he shuts down. Bluffing the river would be fairly suicidal for him considering we can easily have AA, QQ, or some random 6 that 3bet, none of which are folding the river ever. Also if we call the turn and the river is a brick, KdQd is the absolute bottom of our range and it can never be that bad to fold the very bottom of your range to a 1/2 pot bet from a solid player when most of your range is monsters.

[Ravageur]

I wouldn't call the turn either but the logic behind calling the turn would be that sometimes we get there and sometimes we already have the best hand and he shuts down. Bluffing the river would be fairly suicidal for him considering we can easily have AA, QQ, or some random 6 that 3bet, none of which are folding the river ever. Also if we call the turn and the river is a brick, KdQd is the absolute bottom of our range and it can never be that bad to fold the very bottom of your range to a 1/2 pot bet from a solid player when most of your range is monsters.

I like this post.

[Alexos]

I wouldn't call the turn either but the logic behind calling the turn would be that sometimes we get there and sometimes we already have the best hand and he shuts down. Bluffing the river would be fairly suicidal for him considering we can easily have AA, QQ, or some random 6 that 3bet, none of which are folding the river ever. Also if we call the turn and the river is a brick, KdQd is the absolute bottom of our range and it can never be that bad to fold the very bottom of your range to a 1/2 pot bet from a solid player when most of your range is monsters.

I like this post.

+100

[revolvingiris]

Am I the only one who calls this down even if unimproved on river? What is villains bet sizing saying? All I see is please don't call anymore. Unless he is trying to level you?

Please explain how his betsizing looks like he wants us to fold. If he has AA or KK then betting less than this would be pretty terrible given that a large part of Ravageur's range is flush draws. Also I completely disagree with chardrian, we absolutely do not need to call river if we call turn.

How do you not think 99+ is in villains range? I would also include a FD some % of the time...Villain bet like 3/4 pot on turn. Wouldn't he want to bet something that would give him value from Qx hands?

Im not going to pretend to know how villains plays but I also don't think villain flat calls 100% of the time with AA or KK pf. If we have never seen him disguise a hand then that would pretty much rule out KK-AA completely.

Edit: What is villain more likely to do. Flat pf with AA-KK to disguise or play the flop with 99-JJ, saw under cards and popped the c-bet?

[mcatdog]

Edit: What is villain more likely to do. Flat pf with AA-KK to disguise or play the flop with 99-JJ, saw under cards and popped the c-bet?

Once he raises the flop AA-KK are more likely and it's not even close to being close.

[revolvingiris]

I'm not saying your wrong. I just don't see how AA and KK are so obvious here? I guess I wish I did...

[drmcboy]

the general assumption I would make (I don't want to speak for others) is that good players are not hopping the fence with 99-JJ, and if they are the are not raising on this flop, which would fold everything except hands they are crushed by or flipping with that can outplay them later like a FD + overs.

What is your range to cold call a 3 bet?

[fjuanl]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5200 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP3) (t54730) [182BB's]
CO (t44199) [150BB's]
Button (t22268)
SB (t55591)
BB (t25754)
UTG (t11166)
UTG+1 (t14282)
MP1 (t14091)
MP2 (t11588)

Hero's M: 67.57

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, K
2 folds, MP1 bets t800, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2100, CO calls t2100, 4 folds

Flop: (t5810) 6, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t2750, CO raises to t7059, Hero calls t4309

Turn: (t19928) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t12000, Hero folds

Total pot: t19928


revolving maybe you didnt quite see how deep the stacks are. On the flop villain still has 140BB's behind. Most people (even some bad players at microstakes) are not going to raise 99-JJ with the intention of stacking off this deep in a 3bet pot. him having AA-KK seems very likely imo

[drmcboy]

is it time yet to mock char for saying we're 40-50 BBs deep?

[Ravageur]

it's my fault for not formatting, so thanks fjuanl. The deepness of this is why ppl are flatting AA-KK here a lot, especially in position like villain is.

[revolvingiris]

This is probably stupid but I wasnt under the assumption that villain is good. If he's a known reg than I would have been able to see it easier.

@ DMRC: My range pf if I was villain would be pretty wide here actually. 22+, AQs+(50%), and like SC but only because we are so deep.

I guess my question is, if villain had like TT, JJ would his line look like this? Whenever I am in a spot like this I think; what beats me and what do I beat that could take this same line?