KK facing PF raise ($10.40)

[Nakamura]

Villain is one of the looser regs at the $10.40 DON and a winning player. He runs at 19/9/1.1 over 2k hands. I've not noticed him make a bet like this before.

I've run the ICM and it says fold if his range is JJ+, AKs+. One has to add AQs+ and TT to make this a profitable call.

Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1610)
MP3 (t1980)
CO (t2295)
Button (t1510)
SB (t520)
BB (t1305)
UTG (t2725)
UTG+1 (t1880)
Hero (MP1) (t1175)

Hero's M: 4.90

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K
UTG bets t2715 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ??

[rong]

There is no way on this planet I fold here.

Perhaps this is a leak in my game, but I never fold (aside from odd bubble situations) AA or KK.

Looking at your stack, you are hardly setting the world alight here, you have an M less than 5, I'd be calling all day long and winging if I get beat.

As for his range, I don't think it is unreasonable to think TT or AQs could be in it, but it's an odd move whatever.

Either way, I call. I hope you did.

[tugger]

Hero's M: 4.90

I think that's all the info I need.

Insta-snap-call.

[Fortitude]

I think he could do this with TT or 99 as well?
Considering folding KK... I would never have the heart to do it.

[rspeirsmlb]

UTG reeks of 77-QQ......and of course dun dun dunnnnn .....AA. Insta-call this with your stack at 11 BB and 9 remaining players. If he has AA, shake it off.
I'm assuming this is a DON Nakamura?

[TLR]

Your stack is too short to fold

[Nakamura]

UTG reeks of 77-QQ......and of course dun dun dunnnnn .....AA. Insta-call this with your stack at 11 BB and 9 remaining players. If he has AA, shake it off.
I'm assuming this is a DON Nakamura?

Yes, DON against a winning reg

[tugger]

Aren't we delighted to see someone go all in here? I'd watch them kings get dealt to me, beg for a raise, then get a boner when he pushed. Inst-snap-call. Hope he doesn't have aces. If he does, ouch, take the hit, it happens, nice hand, see you later, next tourney.

[taipan168]

I ran this in SNG Wiz and it was breakeven if UTG shoves JJ+, AQs+ and AK. Since I don't play DONs, I don't really know whether winning DON players would only shove this tight or whether they might shove looser, particularly with the big stack.

[Nakamura]

Aren't we delighted to see someone go all in here? I'd watch them kings get dealt to me, beg for a raise, then get a boner when he pushed. Inst-snap-call. Hope he doesn't have aces. If he does, ouch, take the hit, it happens, nice hand, see you later, next tourney.

No, I rather see a standard raise here as I have fold equity when I push. Winning in DONs is mostly about avoiding marginal confrontations.

I ran this in SNG Wiz and it was breakeven if UTG shoves JJ+, AQs+ and AK. Since I don't play DONs, I don't really know whether winning DON players would only shove this tight or whether they might shove looser, particularly with the big stack.

My feeling is, if a winning player is pushing 99 from UTG in a DON, he is unlikely to be winning for much longer.

I think this is an interesting hand. At those advocating a push, what is the logic in the villain (a decent player) pushing with hands like 99 and TT?

[Poker Orifice]

I think with your stack size here you'd be pretty happy to call.

What is villain thinking? Hmm... don't know (I have trouble with this at times... "how the phuck does he call there with that?" ).
Open shove looks like AK to me in a DoN.

[Nakamura]

Open shove looks like AK to me in a DoN.

I'd agree his most likely holding is AK, but I don't think his range ends there.

[Mr Rotten]

I think QQ is a distinct possibility here.Hes trying to protect it but if he gets called he isnt in too bad shape against other hands apart from kk and aa obviously.

[rong]

My feeling is, if a winning player is pushing 99 from UTG in a DON, he is unlikely to be winning for much longer.

If a winning reg (ie you) is willing to fold KK here, then surely shoving from the CO becomes profitable with all sorts of hands.

[tugger]

His range for me is JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK. I'm not sure how that's a close call. There's only one hand there that we truly fear, one that might beat us without a miracle, one we're chopping with, but that's an unlikely holding, and the other two we crush.

Bear in mind also that the big stack here has 27bb. That's the chip leader. No-one can sit around folding decent holdings, really. It's a tight final table, and there's going to be lots of moving and pushing. Taking this into account, I would add TT and maybe AQs to his range.

"No, I rather see a standard raise here as I have fold equity when I push. Winning in DONs is mostly about avoiding marginal confrontations. "

Fair enough, but with a little stack, I'm not looking for folds when I hold KK, I'm looking to double up.

[Nakamura]

If a winning reg (ie you) is willing to fold KK here, then surely shoving from the CO becomes profitable with all sorts of hands.

I see your point. If the table was full of nits, yes he could push very wide. While he can be certain we are tight, he can't be certain the rest of the players will be as tight. I reckon about 1/2 the table would probably call with AK, QQ or wider here.

His range for me is JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK. I'm not sure how that's a close call. There's only one hand there that we truly fear, one that might beat us without a miracle, one we're chopping with, but that's an unlikely holding, and the other two we crush.

The flat payout structure of DONs means we get punished for calling here. Run the ICM and your range; rather surprisingly you should fold KK.

[tugger]

"The flat payout structure of DONs means we get punished for calling here. Run the ICM and your range; rather surprisingly you should fold KK."

I can't see how we can fold. It's like we're suggesting we wait for a better oppurtunity. How can we? What better oppurtunity, with M=4.90, than KK?

It's not like we're hovering around the cut off for money, we're 8th out of 9. Antes are eating our stack. If I fold this, I'm basically handing my tenner over to the table. I feel like we need a significant improvement of our stack to have a realistic chance of doubling our money. Right now, we're in trouble.

I'm having problems working stove. If I put in JJ+ AK it reduces it to JJ+, and tells me we're 60%. If anyone knows what I'm doing wrong with stove, feel free to enlighten me.

[drmcboy]

you need to type "JJ+,AK" and it will expand it. You can also type "JJ+,AKs,AKo"

You guys need to quit saying things like "we can't fold KK!!!'. Can you fold 32o? You don't play hands because they are good in a vacuum, you play them because the math says so, esp in DONs. if you don't like it, play a different format (not SNGs).

this hand again is why I quit SNGs, because you're essentially guessing two things that don't have much to do with more traditional poker:

1) How much does my opponent understand ICM?

2) How much does he think I understand ICM?

It's similar to level 0-1-2-3-n thinking, but I think it's much harder to get a read on how much people get bubble math. As said in the thread, if everyone at the table is folding KK- I would assume this shove is profitable with ATC. It sounds extreme but you have spots like this all the time.

Generally I think I made a lot of -EV shoves back in my SNGs days, but they turned out to be good because people assumed I knew what I was doing and so folded too much.

[tugger]

Thanks drmcboy, that worked.

Still at 60%


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.601% 60.55% 02.05% 167969868 5680134.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 37.399% 35.35% 02.05% 98063112 5680134.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


---

Maybe I'm just dumb, but I really do not understand how this is a fold with our stack.

[drmcboy]

the quick answer is you need to be ahead by more than that because the $ value of staying in the tourney with our current stack is greater than (the value of winning the hand - the value of losing the hand) .

start with these threads and post your questions after reading. You aren't dumb, it's just your poker mind cannot understand how crazy the 'bubble' - which in a DON pretty much starts hand 1 - is. It's like training for a 400 meter race and then trying to run a 5K the same way.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es-t17868.html

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...se-t49674.html

[tugger]

Thanks again drmcboy, I'll have a look at those threads tomorrow, take it in, and respond afterwards. Now, I'm off to the pub for a game of cards!

[Poker Orifice]

It's like training for a 400 meter race and then trying to run a 5K the same way.

nice anology.

1) How much does my opponent understand ICM?

2) How much does he think I understand ICM?

Good way to sum it up.

[rong]

1) How much does my opponent understand ICM?

2) How much does he think I understand ICM?

This is one of the reasons I like playing the $5 and less (inclide $10 on some sites like Titan), and likewise the $30 + games.

In the lower buy in games, you can assume the vast majority of people don't grasp ICM, and in the higher games you can assume the vast majority do.

It's the $10-$20 games I find are more tricky from this perspective as there is a much greacter variety of skill level.

Essentially I find this is one of the problems with ICM. The whole concept is based on accurately estimating your opponents ranges, which is tricky without some sort of HUD. Playing 1 or 2 tables works OK because you can pay attention to nearly every hand, but even then it's arguably impossible to predice the range of a complete idiot.

This is why I like the sharkscope HUD, as I just assume any longterm winning player has a good understanding and any long term loser doesn't. Which in general means shove tighter & call lighter against a loser and the opposite against a winner(I think, haven't thought this through completely yet).

[tugger]

start with these threads and post your questions after reading. l

I've read through them, albeit fairly quickly, and I think I get it. Basically, it's telling me to stay well clear of DONs.

I'd still call my KK though, and tighten the hell up after I (hopefully) double up. Maybe that's a leak, but I don't think I could consider my stack size enough to wait for a better oppurtunity, and a double up would put me in a very good position to cash. KK is just too good a hand to fold in this spot.

[Nakamura]

Maybe that's a leak, but I don't think I could consider my stack size enough to wait for a better oppurtunity, and a double up would put me in a very good position to cash. KK is just too good a hand to fold in this spot.

> 10xBB still carries significant fold equity in DONs.

I did call, but I may as well have thrown away $0.50 or whatever. Having thought about it, I think there will likely be better (+EV) opportunities to push and get my money in first, rather than calling in this spot.

[tugger]

"10xBB still carries significant fold equity in DONs. "

This I accept is true. However, I'd call because I'd rather gamble with KK than AQ, even if it means calling an all in instead of pushing and hoping for folds.

So you called. Were you up against aces? That's the only bad call you can make, in terms of chances of winning the hand. If he spiked an ace with AK, that's just tough luck.

[Nakamura]

So you called. Were you up against aces?

It doesn't really matter. Given his likely range, this call is costing us money. It doesn't matter whether he pitches up with JJ or AA here, the EV is still the same.

I feel posting the hand here will influence people's thinking. If you are burning with desire to know, PM me and I'll tell you.

[tugger]

It doesn't really matter. Given his likely range, this call is costing us money. It doesn't matter whether he pitches up with JJ or AA here, the EV is still the same.

I feel posting the hand here will influence people's thinking. If you are burning with desire to know, PM me and I'll tell you.

Alright, fair enough. I can beat wicked curiosity.

[tugger]

I'm starting to understand more and more. The Snow White thread has nailed it, really. By pushing, he's made a -ev decision, and by calling, so do you, right? The winners, long term, are those not in the hand. Have I got this?

Still, I'm short stack, I call.