Value of Making It ITM in MTT's, 5.50

[surviva316]

Ok, so i know that in MTT's you play for the final table and not for ITM, which differs greatly from SnG's. I know, though, that surely one should let the bubble affect their decisions at least a little bit. so here's a spot where it would be retarded to bubble out on in an SnG, but is obviously going to make more chips than it's going to lose over the long run. i just don't know if it makes me more money.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t14645)
MP3 (t13704)
CO (t20288)
Button (t18762)
Hero (SB) (t4440)
BB (t17637)
UTG (t40404)
UTG+1 (t21781)
MP1 (t8710)

Hero's M: 3.29

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
3 folds, MP2 calls t600, 3 folds, Hero bets t4390 (All-In)

villain who limped is a 39/19 whale. i've seen him PFR KQs from the CO and AQo from UTG, so i'm assuming that he's raising strong hands and limping all sorts of K7o, A2, 96s type garbage. i don't have any hands noted where he either limp/called or limp/folded so i don't know how far he's willing to go with this garbage, but he does play them retarded post flop. just a few hands previous to this he doubled two people up with K7o on an 887 flop that turned 3 diamonds on the board. because of this i both know that he doesn't know where the fold button is and there is the possibility that he's tilting.

the BB who is left to act is like 15/3 or something. he tries to play tight, but he doesn't know how to play poker. i would be surprised if he folded marginal crap like KQ, AJ or 77 to my shove.

so long story short, it's hard to gauge how often i'm being called, but it's certainly a high variance spot. is shove good here, or should i just nit my way into the money and likely have like 4-5 bb's left by the time we get there?

EDIT: there were like 930 left and top 810 paid out. 810th place gets paid about 3/2 the buy in. it's not turbo and we're prolly about 5 mins from blinds moving up.

[Im_new]

In general, I get it in versus villain's weaker range.

BUT

How many players are left?
How many places pay?
Turbo or no?

[surviva316]

crap i forgot to mention that there were like 930 left and top 810 paid out. 810th place gets paid about 3/2 the buy in. it's not turbo and we're prolly about 5 mins from blinds moving up.

i'll edit OP

[Im_new]

get it in given your reads.. what is 2/3 of a BI going to get you in the long run?

[fjuanl]

your nowhere near the bubble and you likely wont get a better spot than this. with the read you described i think this is a mandatory shove. if you fold this and are card-dead for the next 7 hands, your tournament is basically over and you might still bubble

you should probably shove A2+ any pair and a lot of Kx

the BB who is left to act is like 15/3 or something. he tries to play tight, but he doesn't know how to play poker. i would be surprised if he folded marginal crap like KQ, AJ or 77 to my shove.

BB calling with those hands is totally fine. If you were BB and would fold these hands, your playing way too tight. BB should iso-shove these hands since he's basically 20bb's effective and has no worries about the limper having a big hand

[JR9477]

I agree with everything that has been said, this is your best chance. I don't think he's ever folding, but you are a slight favorite vs his range, and there's a decent amount of chips already in the middle.

[surviva316]

BB calling with those hands is totally fine. If you were BB and would fold these hands, your playing way too tight. BB should iso-shove these hands since he's basically 20bb's effective and has no worries about the limper having a big hand

BB should really iso shove KQ here?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,999,913,216 games 6.106 secs 982,625,813 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.921% 55.01% 01.91% 3300467064 114716280.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 43.079% 41.17% 01.91% 2470013592 114716280.00 { KQo }

i know that that's still good enough equity to profit here, but i've seen the other villain wake up with JJ+, AK in this type of spot a lot of times (even if i do have reads on him that he's PFR'ed KQs and AQo, donks are like OMG THE NUTS with JJ+, AK a lot)