Outleveling myself near the bubble [$11 FR NLHESNG]

[Jack Sawyer]

I think I did. Villain in this hand was of the passive type but did not really stand out as one style or the other. I have not been opening a lot, and particularly not in first position. This time I elected for a full 3x raise, and I get repopped. I cover.

Villain instashoved over, which means he did not even think about it. I'm still leaning towards a call, am i correct in thinking this, or is it better to just sit and wait? Bubble is approaching, should this have any impact in my decision?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



saw flop

BB (t1205)
Jizzy Sawya (UTG) (t2945)
MP (t4750)
Button (t2210)
SB (t2390)

Jizzy Sawya's M: 19.63

Preflop: Jizzy Sawya is UTG with ,
Jizzy Sawya bets t300, 1 fold, Button raises to t2210 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero (t0) ?

[GatorJH]

easy fold. JJ would be a tough decision, but 99 is an easy fold for me here, ESPECIALLY if you have even the slightest read that villian is a passive player.

[Jack Sawyer]

Tnx for the response Gator.

[taipan168]

What Gator said. I'll run the ICM on this later but since you don't have a read that opp is an aggro player I'd let this one go - particularly considering your stack size and that blinds are only 50/100, and that it would be a very big chunk of your stack gone if you call this and lose.

[taipan168]

OK, I ran the ICM on this and it is as follows:

- If you fold you will have 2645 chips worth 20.7% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have chips worth 33.7% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will have chips worth 7.3% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be (20.7-7.3)/(33.7-7.3) = 51% to win against opp's range to make this a good call.

Putting opp on a range of 88+, AJ+ (which BTW I think is a WAY loose range), you are 44% to win, so I think this is an easy fold:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 43.863% 43.09% 00.77% { 99 }
Hand 1: 56.137% 55.37% 00.77% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

[Jack Sawyer]

Ok, this is where I'm bad. I have to call 1760 to win 2260 + 1760. Isn't that much better than 43% plus the fact that I can't be busted?

[taipan168]

Ok, this is where I'm bad. I have to call 1760 to win 2260 + 1760. Isn't that much better than 43% plus the fact that I can't be busted?

You're not counting the ICM effect of going up against a stack that can seriously hurt you.