Tough spot on the bubble $24+2 KO

[9999999]

Thinking this is an obv fold but just wanted some re-assurance if you know what i mean.

Long story short, top 9 are paid. 10 remaining and im on the BB with a total stack of 3530 (2000 of which is already in the middle for my big blind)

Utg raises and the SB RRAI.

10th place gets absolutely nothing, but it costs me 1530 to win a ton, and i have 88. Still an obv fold right? I would consider neither of the two players in discussion to be nitty, or even solid players from what i had observed. My concern here is that UTG is going to fold to the SB's RR a chunk of the time, and if he calls hes going to win a chunk of the time, both of those scenarios leave me in a real bad spot.

---Tournament Summary---
$22 MTT: Top 9 paid.

The Tournament Trimmer (v2.0) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com

-----Hand 1-----
Hero's M = 1.18
Full Tilt Poker Game #14980049504: $24 + $2 KO Sit & Go (109871230)
Seat 1: jofffrompair (21,093)
Seat 3: dan1863 (26,763)
Seat 4: O BANG (7,626)
Seat 7: RonArtest10 (43,612)
Seat 8: Hero (3,530)
RonArtest10 posts the small blind of 1,000
Hero posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #5
Preflop
Dealt to Hero 8 8
jofffrompair: raises to 4,000
dan1863: folds
O BANG: folds
RonArtest10: raises to 43,362, and is all in
Hero: calls 1,280, and is all in

results edit by Dr

[Im_new]

.... call.

[9999999]

call? ok and im guessing this is a really easy call then by your short reply?

also sorry for including results in original post, forgot to edit that

[Im_new]

This is a pretty easy for me. I don't play to cash. I play to win. You have less than one bb left. You will not get a better spot than this.

[GatorJH]

This is as easy a call as it gets.

You can either get 3,530 chips in this hand and hope to triple up to 10,590 chips or you can get 1,280 chips in next hand (with potentially a hand that is WAY worse than 88) and if EVERYONE ELSE calls have the possibility to get to 5,120 chips. No brainer decision.

[mcatdog]

This is a call but it's not as obvious as the people in this thread are making it out to be.

If you somehow knew that UTG was going to call the all-in with a dominated hand, yes this would be a fold. Unfortunately he is going to fold a lot, at least 50% of the time I'd say, and when he does call he will have a pretty strong hand and win most of the time, like at least 60% of the time. So when you fold here it only actually helps you 20% of the time, the other 80% you are left with 1280 chips and are a massive favorite to be the bubble boy.

The mincash is $45 so if you fold and UTG is eliminated on this hand, your equity is a little more than that, like maybe $50. If you fold and the bubble continues your equity is practically $0, like it's maybe $5 at most. Winning this pot gives you $47 of equity according to ICM and you're going to win the pot a solid 35-40% of the time I would guess, maybe even 45-50% if the SB is restealing a wide range on the bubble.

$EV (fold) = .20($45) + .80($5) = $13
$EV (call) = .35($47) = $16.50

So yes this is a call but I would actually fold any hand that had under 28% equity vs. the small blind's range.

[sportbike33]

Call, his push... pushes out most other players..leaving you w 88 vs random hand. You might even be a favorite Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

[mcatdog]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

[chardrian]

mcat wins thread.

[Im_new]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

.....well, big fish or little fish?


*moving on*


OP, just call here and hope you win.

[baudib]

I don't think UTG ever calls with anything you beat. I think the thing to do here is go back and find spots in the previous few orbits where you should have shoved.

[dthorne04]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

Online poker tournaments/sit n go's have approached the point where just about all participants in them lose. With the poker sites charging between 8% and 10% of every prize pool, it's just about guaranteed every player loses. The games are terrible. Everyone is playing extremely tight, everyone understands proper push/shove ranges. There is barely any skill to tournament poker. Very few have any edge. Everyone playing is just throwing money away. You are probally losing per tournament what it cost to play per tournament. I'd estimate less than 10% of players break-even. To turn a profit is very difficult. The site owners keep saying online poker is a skill game. The owners of the sites keep lobbying to "keep it legal." Well, poker is NOT A SKILL GAME, WHEN THE HOUSE TAKES ALL THE MONEY. In my opinion, there is no reason whatsoever to play, if you cant make a reasonable profit. You are much better off not playing poker at all. If you are playing poker, it should be for play money. Winning nothing and losing is a hell of alot better than playing where you are guaranteed to lose. The site owners keep lobbying to keep poker legal so they can keep fleecing us. Well, its time for the players to do some "lobbying." I STRONGLY RECOMMEND all poker players stop playing poker tournaments online. Do not play
6-man and 9-man multitable tournament or sngs. Just about all of you will lose. Poker is a zero sum game. With the high rake, its an extremely negative sum game. Do not be delusional and think you are better than your opponents. Most people intelligence is very similiar. Trust me, you do not have an mathetical advantage so its a mathematical certainty you are going to lose in the long run. Until they cut tournament fees 50%, DO NOT PLAY THEM. The days of paying 100+9 or 200+15 need to be over. The only way they'll lower the price is if EVERYONE stops playing. If a business is getting no business at their current prices, THEY WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO LOWER PRICES, OR MAKE NO MONEY. DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.
The only reason to play poker for money is to make money for YOURSELF. You should want to make yourself rich. Squandering your money makes others rich and you poor. Why would you want to do that. Playing for any other reason for real money is completely ridiculous. You should be playing poker on the XBOX or something. BOYCOTT TOURNAMENT POKER. I sincerely hope you follow my advice. That is all.





$100+9, 9-man sit n go, $990 total buy-in, $90 goes to the house, 1/12th of every prize pool....90%+ of players lose. Poker tournaments are a casino game, where the house beats just about all the players. THIS CERTAINLY ISNT INVESTING. What an investor would let the middleman take 8% of the total pool of capital right off the top. I think not.
Say a bunch of wallstreet guys wanted to play a $1,000,000.00 9-man sng. Would they be willing to pay one milllion plus ninty thousand dollars to the house. $10,000,000.00 total prize pool, $900,000.00 to the house. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS WOULD THEY GIVE AWAY $900,000.00 Never in a million years would they agree to 8.3%% of their capital being taken right off the top. One tournament takes less than an hour. What if they played a second one. Another 8.3%....YEAH RIGHT.That's completely insane. well, when you play a 10+1 tournament, it is equivalent. You are letting the middleman take 9% of your capital right off the top. Every tournament all the time. It's absurd. Just all the players lose in the long run. It's beyond obvious. It's astonishing to me there isnt constant discussion and complaints about tournament fees.
BOYCOTT ONLINE POKER TOURNAMENTS.

[Im_new]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

Online poker tournaments/sit n go's have approached the point where just about all participants in them lose. With the poker sites charging between 8% and 10% of every prize pool, it's just about guaranteed every player loses. The games are terrible. Everyone is playing extremely tight, everyone understands proper push/shove ranges. There is barely any skill to tournament poker. Very few have any edge. Everyone playing is just throwing money away. You are probally losing per tournament what it cost to play per tournament. I'd estimate less than 10% of players break-even. To turn a profit is very difficult. The site owners keep saying online poker is a skill game. The owners of the sites keep lobbying to "keep it legal." Well, poker is NOT A SKILL GAME, WHEN THE HOUSE TAKES ALL THE MONEY. In my opinion, there is no reason whatsoever to play, if you cant make a reasonable profit. You are much better off not playing poker at all. If you are playing poker, it should be for play money. Winning nothing and losing is a hell of alot better than playing where you are guaranteed to lose. The site owners keep lobbying to keep poker legal so they can keep fleecing us. Well, its time for the players to do some "lobbying." I STRONGLY RECOMMEND all poker players stop playing poker tournaments online. Do not play
6-man and 9-man multitable tournament or sngs. Just about all of you will lose. Poker is a zero sum game. With the high rake, its an extremely negative sum game. Do not be delusional and think you are better than your opponents. Most people intelligence is very similiar. Trust me, you do not have an mathetical advantage so its a mathematical certainty you are going to lose in the long run. Until they cut tournament fees 50%, DO NOT PLAY THEM. The days of paying 100+9 or 200+15 need to be over. The only way they'll lower the price is if EVERYONE stops playing. If a business is getting no business at their current prices, THEY WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO LOWER PRICES, OR MAKE NO MONEY. DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.DO NOT PLAY POKER TOURNAMENTS ONLINE.
The only reason to play poker for money is to make money for YOURSELF. You should want to make yourself rich. Squandering your money makes others rich and you poor. Why would you want to do that. Playing for any other reason for real money is completely ridiculous. You should be playing poker on the XBOX or something. BOYCOTT TOURNAMENT POKER. I sincerely hope you follow my advice. That is all.





$100+9, 9-man sit n go, $990 total buy-in, $90 goes to the house, 1/12th of every prize pool....90%+ of players lose. Poker tournaments are a casino game, where the house beats just about all the players. THIS CERTAINLY ISNT INVESTING. What an investor would let the middleman take 8% of the total pool of capital right off the top. I think not.
Say a bunch of wallstreet guys wanted to play a $1,000,000.00 9-man sng. Would they be willing to pay one milllion plus ninty thousand dollars to the house. $10,000,000.00 total prize pool, $900,000.00 to the house. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS WOULD THEY GIVE AWAY $900,000.00 Never in a million years would they agree to 8.3%% of their capital being taken right off the top. One tournament takes less than an hour. What if they played a second one. Another 8.3%....YEAH RIGHT.That's completely insane. well, when you play a 10+1 tournament, it is equivalent. You are letting the middleman take 9% of your capital right off the top. Every tournament all the time. It's absurd. Just all the players lose in the long run. It's beyond obvious. It's astonishing to me there isnt constant discussion and complaints about tournament fees.
BOYCOTT ONLINE POKER TOURNAMENTS.

^I'm ROFL @ ^


...
Mcatdog gave a sound reasoning behind this call. The purpose of his sporadic name calling, idk. If I'm a fish tooting fish-level logic and I arrived at the same decision as he, well... I don't know what to tell him. And beyond the correct call here, the logic behind playing to win is sound as well. If he meant to critique my understanding of the bubble, probably assuming that I'll get it in with random hands here because "I'm playing to win," he's simply wrong. Last, if he is assuming that my "play to win" strategy is unconditional and overrides $EV, he's wrong again.

Whatever the case, I enjoy reading his posts, but this was just silly and unnecessary.

[dthorne04]

i'm just trolling mcat out of fun.

his post was obv. awesome but i was in a silly mood.

and it is fish logic saying you don't play cash, you play to win.

edit: if mcat says something, it's most likely true, and he's one of the best MTT resources FTR has ever seen, if not the best. listening to him is always wise iyam.

[Im_new]

i'm just trolling mcat out of fun.

his post was obv. awesome but i was in a silly mood.

and it is fish logic saying you don't play cash, you play to win.

edit: if mcat says something, it's most likely true, and he's one of the best MTT resources FTR has ever seen, if not the best. listening to him is always wise iyam.

OF COURSE HE IS, and I respect him to the utmost, but that doesn't mean i'm gonna accept him calling me something i'm not, when I've been a winning and devoted player for several years, and a contributing member at FTR for almost as many years.

your post was obv hilarious... I love running jokes.

[mcatdog]

Come on I said "play to win" is fish logic I didn't call you a fish.

edit: if mcat says something, it's most likely true, and he's one of the best MTT resources FTR has ever seen, if not the best. listening to him is always wise iyam.

johnny_fish tho

[dthorne04]

ahh i miss johnny_fish's posts.

nevertheless you're overreacting to mcat's post, there's a distinct difference between expressing distaste with someone's attitude or mindset towards a situation, and calling them it, i.e. what mcat did

it is fish logic tho

[baudib]

There's a difference between coming to the right conclusion and using the correct thought process.

MTTs are a lot different from SNGs, where ICM pretty much rules all. Exploiting the bubble is a key way to grow your stack in MTTs, when too many people are playing just to cash. That said, there are occasional situations where ICM should be a factor and mcat clearly exhibits a better grasp on this than pretty much anyone.

[Im_new]

Come on I said "play to win" is fish logic I didn't call you a fish.

edit: if mcat says something, it's most likely true, and he's one of the best MTT resources FTR has ever seen, if not the best. listening to him is always wise iyam.

johnny_fish tho

true... I took some offense wrongly (probably resulting from my most recent swing). I'll apologize for that (if that means anything). Essentially, playing to win (when feasible) is what all of us do. I'm unsure how that logic is fishy. (Is it because each hand should be taken into consideration without "the win" in mind? Rather, the situation should prove mathematically advantageous, which you inevitably lead to more wins?) We've all been told this before, what has changed? [Random: what would you (anyone) have to say about early gambles? That's a situation where playing to win is at its finest.]

There's a difference between coming to the right conclusion and using the correct thought process.

Entirely true.

[drmcboy]

you play to win the most money over time. If you win more money by 'playing to cash' then that's what you should do.
Read the ICM stickys in the SNG forum.



I told J fish we missed him the last time we shared a table but I'm sure he had 15 tables going and did not reply

[lolzzz_321]

Having played with SB a few times in these i know he is shoving wide in this situation.

Also, 90 man prop bet4rollz?

[sportbike33]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

Takes one to know one thanks for he confidence boost... GRRRRRRR

[dthorne04]

I don't play to cash. I play to win.

Insta call... you play to win not finsh ITM... 1 - 3rd is the wher eyou need to be finishing... not 9th

Fish logic ITT.

Takes one to know one thanks for he confidence boost... GRRRRRRR