180 ITM? (cards hidden)

[revolvingiris]

Your BTN with QQ. You've seen MP just build up this 60k stack by a card rush otherwise has been pretty tight. Do you take the same line or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 3000/6000 Blinds 600 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t63432)
Button (t68336)
SB (t19679)
BB (t51516)
UTG (t67037)

MP's M: 5.29

Preflop:
1 fold, MP bets t62832 (All-In), Button raises to t67736 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t137664) 5, A, J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t137664) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t137664) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t137664

Edit: This is the final table

[drmcboy]

you're asking if BU should fold QQ?

[revolvingiris]

Im asking if you are BU with QQ. What do you do?

[mcatdog]

...................

[drmcboy]

you're asking if BU should fold QQ?

[drmcboy]

Since it's clear we won't get to talk about poker in this thread:

1) What does (cards hidden) mean?
2) What does the ? mean (?)

[bigspenda73]

Since it's clear we won't get to talk about poker in this thread:

1) What does (cards hidden) mean?
2) What does the ? mean (?)

?

[drmcboy]

(cards hidden)

[mcatdog]

Man I feel kind of guilty but this thread is making me laugh a lot.

[revolvingiris]

ok hint, ICM applies here. Do you want me to put the 180 $12 payouts up?

ok ill just put them up for the sake of it.
1. 594
2. 396
3. 235.62
4. 158.40
5. 128.70

[KoRnholio]

[ ] thread delivers

[mcatdog]

ok hint, ICM applies here.

What is this, a scavenger hunt?

[fjuanl]

Just for the hell of it I decided to check it out in sngwiz (using the correct structure). If he's jamming only 88+ ATs+ AQo+ then its breakeven. Good luck ever finding anyone with a 10BB CO range that tight

[drmcboy]

Well if the cards were not hidden I would have figured out the ICM part (?)

[dthorne04]

i think this thread calls for a big fat

[revolvingiris]

There are two SS in the blinds so this tightens MPs shoving range.

[KoRnholio]

1) BB isn't that shortstacked
2) The payouts aren't steep enough to make an uber tight fold and squeak up the cash ladder

[drmcboy]

in addition to the stuff mentioned the chip stack advantage that was pretty iffy in the other thread is really clear here, we're either going to be stealing a ton or be able to sit back and watch the fire works if everyone is gambling.

KE shove chart, which does not take into account the payout of course, has MP shoving 25% or so here if the thinks everyone calls optimally. Juan's range is < 5%. I might be willing to grant you that MP shoves half as often due to payouts but anything more than that doesn't work for me. And he may play tight short and gamble it up 'deep' and he's shoving more than 25% thereby making this fold so bad Sklansky is obligated to come to your home and steal something to re capture the dollars of his we wasted.

Am I to wonder forever what cards are hidden? there will be consequences.

[fjuanl]

There are two SS in the blinds so this widens MPs shoving range.

FYP

[revolvingiris]

Actually fjuanl I meant tightens...There is a big stack on the BTN and the CO cant shove as wide being he is covered. So ICM takes CO's equity busting into consideration when forming a range for CO.

The ICM on this hand had me confused a bit so ill post the math. What confused me was that BTN has hero covered by 5k. However, this is less than a BB which ICM cant take into consideration.

With 5k left

f - 341.12
c/l- 156.34
c/w- 469.90

(341.12-156.34)/(469.90-156.34)
184.78/313.56
= 58.92%

If we count villain as out of chips when loose

f -341.12
c/l-0
c/w-469.90

(341.12-0)/(469.90-0)
341.12/469.90
= 72.59%

average % = 65.75%

So as you can see there is a pretty big difference that 5k makes. Which makes sense being your last chip is worth more than your 200th chip.

However, the fact that BTN would be left with less than a BB behind greatly increases his chances of being eliminated. So I don't view the 58.92% as correct.

Hand 0: 64.411% { QQ }
Hand 1: 35.589% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

This is what 10% of hands looks like vs QQ pf. This is obv a range that QQ can call if they have 5k behind. But notice its less than the average by an OK margin and would be a completely incorrect call if this were to knock BTN out of the tourney.

So the reason I posted this hand is because I dont think its correct to just say, "Well, we have 5k behind so its a good call". BTN will have 2 hands to pick before forced on the BB and by then that 5k stack would have dwindled down to 3800.

[fjuanl]

I don't really understand why your doing all that. Here's what I was talking about before:




That should pretty much end the discussion. There is just no way any any human has a range tighter than that, and its already a big edge.

His range should be wider with the blinds being short, since obviously he is still in the tournament if he gets called and loses

[revolvingiris]

I did all that because I wanted to show the math behind what I was thinking. SnGWiz doesn't take into account that the BTN will have less than a BB left and will be forced to shove ATC.

Give QQ less chips than hero by 1 and see if QQ is still a call. Which is what my point is.

Yes, right now it is absolutely correct for QQ to call but if BTN loses this hand they are almost surely out.

[Sprayed]

shove

[revolvingiris]

fjuanl, did you run the less one chip thing inside Sngwiz? My trail period ran out so I dont have it at the moment.

Does my question seem to make sense at all?

[revolvingiris]

So I guess the fact that BTN would be left with less than 1bb means nothing. Just in case anyone is wondering....good call QQ

[JeffreyGB]

I see where you're coming from, Revolvingiris, and I definitely think it's a touch more interesting than people are granting. I did run it through SNGwiz with the other player having us covered by 1 chip, and it did indeed come back a fold.

[fjuanl]

wrong payout structure jgb, need to make one for 180-mans

[JeffreyGB]

wrong payout structure jgb, need to make one for 180-mans

I didn't see the 180-mans when I was running it through. Guess I missed it. Either way, this structure fits pretty closely to the actual remaining payouts, and neither has any OTM complications.

[drmcboy]

I don't see the value in discussing what might happen if MP's range is 8%. I also don't get the BB/SB call %s?

[JeffreyGB]

I don't see the value in discussing what might happen if MP's range is 8%. I also don't get the BB/SB call %s?

I left the default call percentages, and you're right - these are probably off significantly. I can run it again with an adjustment there, but I think it will remain mostly the same result - a marginal fold if MP is an uber-nit, and a good call if his range is 10% or wider (which I will agree it is usually safe to assume that it is).

[revolvingiris]

Thanks JGB for running it (even though it was the wrong format ). I just found the spot to be interesting and wanted to see what other peoples opinions are.

Again, I need to buy SnGwiz so I can test this stuff myself (end of the month) with added ranges. But even without the correct payout structure.

I posted the long form math of QQ's equity when they bust and its 72%. The problem is that the shover doesnt need to have just 8% of hands.


Hand 0: 72.580% { QQ }
Hand 1: 27.420% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

If villain is shoving wider than 30% of hands than this becomes a call if QQ would be knocked out of the tourney. Any less than 30% and its a -EV call. My point was that QQ is only going to have 1bb left if they call and lose. Which IMO should be accounted for.

[JeffreyGB]

For giggles, I went ahead and ran this several more times with various calling ranges for the SB and BB, ranging from 1% each to 60% each. It wasn't until they are both calling super-wide that this becomes a positive call against the AJ+/77+ range that was suggested at some point.

Again, if the range gets as large as 66+/AT+ or beyond, then this is a good call according to Wiz. Even at 10% this is a +EV call. The wider the range, the more +EV it becomes.

[revolvingiris]

Then I dont know where my math went wrong with ICM. I guess I have to find the leak.

[revolvingiris]

If we count villain as out of chips when lose

fold -341.12
call/lose -0
call/win -469.90

(341.12-0)/(469.90-0)
341.12/469.90
= 72.59%

Was this not the correct way to figure out calling equity for ICM?

[fjuanl]

If we count villain as out of chips when lose

fold -341.12
call/lose -0
call/win -469.90

(341.12-0)/(469.90-0)
341.12/469.90
= 72.59%

Was this not the correct way to figure out calling equity for ICM?

No, because your not taking into account the stack sizes of the other players and the finish distributions. I don't even understand any of what is quoted above

Here's some articles: http://www.pokerjunkie.com/icm-expla...ent-chip-model

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitand..._to%20ICM.html

I wouldn't know how to do the math on this and I would guess it would take hours to figure out in when 5 players are involved. Just understand the basics behind it and your fine

[revolvingiris]

The above was done with an ICM calculator. I gave QQ one less chip than the shover to see if QQ would have been a call if this would have risked elimination.

I calculated how much QQ's equity would be if folded, called the AI and lost, and then called the AI and win. Then I used the formula that Taipan put together x = (Fold - Lose) / (Win - Lose).

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

this is the calculator I used

[revolvingiris]

Hero's chip equity when:
Fold- 0.1712
call and win- 0.2393
call and lose - 0

X= QQ equity needed to call; formula: x = (Fold - Lose) / (Win - Lose)

(0.1712-0)/(0.2393-0)
.1712/.2393= x
x= .715 or 71.5%

I know SnGWiz is an amazing program but I really have no idea why I keep getting this number.

Please keep in mind that in the hand villain has 1 bb remaining if calls and loses. My argument is that villain will have to call with ATC and will probably be knocked out the next hand. So the above calculation was done as if QQ would be knocked out this hand.

[nuklearwintr]

you have to be insane to fold QQ here. This is such a good opportunity to double up and go on to win the tournament.

QQ is miles ahead of the c/o shoving range and you should be delighted to get your chips in the middle here.

c/o is shoving 22-JJ, A-8+ and almost always mini-raising KK/AA so you know you have the best hand here like 99% of the time.

fistpump high five call

[fjuanl]

Hero's chip equity when:
Fold- 0.1712
call and win- 0.2393
call and lose - 0

X= QQ equity needed to call; formula: x = (Fold - Lose) / (Win - Lose)

(0.1712-0)/(0.2393-0)
.1712/.2393= x
x= .715 or 71.5%

I know SnGWiz is an amazing program but I really have no idea why I keep getting this number.

Theres your problem. If villain calls and is out of the tournament, his $EV is still 5th place money, or $128.70.

$EV(fold): (.17187) x (1512.72) = 259.99

$EV(call and win): (.23894) x (1512.72) = 361.45

$EV(call and lose): 128.70


By calling you either lose 131.29 or win 101.46

(Our equity now is 259.99. If we call and lose, our equity is 128.70. That loss is 131.29.)

(Our equity now is 259.99. If we call and lose, we gain 361.45-259.99=101.46)

Breakeven equity % is:

131.29/(131.29+101.46) or 56%

Also keep in mind what we did doesn't take into consideration when SB or BB overcalls.

[revolvingiris]

my god I'm an idiot...thank you fjuanl for getting back to me about that. This cleared a lot up for me.

[dthorne04]

fjuanl: is your avatar doing the chuck liddell pose? wtf

[revolvingiris]

fjuanl: is your avatar doing the chuck liddell pose? wtf

hahahaha