September SNG Graphs and Profit

[Nakamura]

September Graphs

I think I forgot to do this last month, but here is the thread to post your September SNG graphs.

Post your graph and/or profits and mention the the stakes as well. I look forward to seeing them all.

PokerStars - 18 tabling the $10.40 DON turbo's




Full Tilt (before they refused to give me rakeback) - 12 tabling the $6.50 turbo's




Profits

PokerStars - $1009
Full Tilt - $236
Cake Poker - $(-)25 (Small sample size of $26.75 DONs)

Bonuses

Full Tilt - $25
PokerStars - $340

Total - $1585 I did try for $2k, but I hit a wall towards the end of the month on PokerStars .... next month maybe.

[Rage2100]

September was a strange month. I was $1 in profit after the first two weeks, but I worked hard on re-stealing near the bubble, and it got me into the money much more often. Getting hands to hold up when I was in the money was another story though.

I play at a few sites, so these are the combined winnings, but most games are around the $10 buy-in, and I was mainly 6-tabling.

Total Profit: $540

[Lance]

buy-in $6.50 on Stars
i have successfully moved from 12 to 18-tabling, i think that's the main success of the last month.

The fact, that i am under expectation of 90 buy-in's hurts, but i am still patient.
Also i am often thinking about moving to $16's. Do you recommend it to me or should i play a few thousands of $6.50's more ?


Adjusted ROI is 8.3%

I would appreciate any comments.

[Lance]

Naka, i wonder about your adjusted winnings (red line)

[caddie444]

Just moved up to the 9-max $16 turbos this month and things could have gone better...

played 333 $16 turbos and ran 36 buy-ins below EV

played 41 $6.50 turbos and ran 8 buy-ins below EV too

The rest is HU

Does anyone on FTR run good??

Naka how did you manage to clear a $340 bonus with Stars? Was this part of the WCOOP reload?? Or did you purchase an instant cash credit with FPP??

[Nakamura]

Naka, i wonder about your adjusted winnings (red line)

I've run about $140 above all-in EV on Stars, which is unusual. Full Tilt has the same pattern.

I've thought a lot about the EV line. I don't think it's particularly useful for DONs, since plenty of the time I am colluding to knock other players out, and HEM (annoyingly) doesn't calculate EV correctly in multi-way pots. A further issue I have with the EV line is it takes no cognisance of the EV of plays. Here is a real example that happened.

Hero is dealt KK at the 15/30 level. There is a min-raise and a re-raise to 150. Hero re-raises to 400 and the second villain calls. The flop comes out J 8 3 and Hero gets all his chips in. The villain flips up JJ. Now, HEM will say Hero's EV is very poor, but the reality is Hero's play here is very +EV. I don't know how you capture that in a stat. I don't even think the multi-street EV, which I think is in the pipeline, would do a better job here. In other words this would work by looking at the proportion of chips going in on each street and applying the EV for that street and combining them. Personally, I think trying to make the perfect stat here is tricky and the primary reason why HEM hasn't tackled the issue yet.

Another thought I've had, is running below your EV line may indicate weak-tight tendencies. HEM has no calculation of EV when you make an opponent without going to show-down. Obviously, if you are folding too much, and not making other people fold enough without going to a showdown, you are bleeding chips without adding anything to your 'luck-line' - and that can't be good for the old 'luck-line' vs the winnings line.

In the end, I've decided there are too many issues with a luck-line to have any faith with it. I just look at it as a general trend indicator and not much else. You should not blindly follow your luck-line and use it to justify your poor results. Most people run behind their luck-line and you should be actively thinking why this is the case.

Naka how did you manage to clear a $340 Bonus with Stars? Was this part of the WCOOP reload?? Or did you purchase an instant cash credit with FPP??

I cleared $100 from the WCOOP bonus and traded in 15 000 FPP, for another $240. I probably could have earned more playing the 210 FPP satellites, but it takes time and I could be using that time to play more DON (and therefore making profit).

[Lance]

Most people run behind their luck-line and you should be actively thinking why this is the case.

My opinion is that most of players run under expectation, because most often those players present own results. You want to share/show your "bad luck" than your "lucky" success.

Obviously, if you are folding too much, and not making other people fold enough without going to a showdown, you are bleeding chips without adding anything to your 'luck-line' - and that can't be good for the old 'luck-line' vs the winnings line.

That's a really good point i am still thinking about. But how can we loosen up against 45/15 player in push/fold stage?
Don't forget that your example with JJ works "vice versa", so it shouldn't have an impact to red line.
On the 2+2 forum there is a pretty nice discussion about the red line named "Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread".

[Nakamura]

Don't forget that your example with JJ works "vice versa", so it shouldn't have an impact to red line.

I agree with this if one in push-fold mode. Most decent players will not call off 1/3 of their stack (particularly in a DON) pre-flop, since they recognise the move is -EV. One might argue that this chap will often fold the flop and therefore you are adding to your EV, without going to showdown, which isn't actually recorded by HEM in your luck-line.

Anyway, I will try to find that post on 2+2, since I don't fully comprehend what exactly the luck-line is displaying. How can you trust a luck-line when you don't actually know if it's even correct? How many folks have even checked the calculations or thought about what the all-in EV actually means?

Edit: Ok, sped-read the 2+2 stuff and I'm none-the-wiser. The only salient point I could find what this, "People calling all streets with wrong odds and hitting the river (which doesn't show up in HEM graphs since it only calculates from the point you are all in)", which is partly what I was referring to above.

I am pondering that if all brains on 2+2 can't figure out exactly what the EV line is showing, is there any hope?

Noticeably most people who posted graphs ran behind all-in EV (or very slightly above), which leads you to the conclusion either most better players run behind all-in EV, or people with bad luck post more than those that are lucky. In the end reading that post seemed like one giant, whinny bad beat post